This is where the understanding
of climate modeling uncertainty is lost in the scientific communications to the public by the politicians and vocal advocates that drive climate change discussions.
This methodology covers a large range of potential future climates for British Columbia and explicitly addresses both emissions and
global climate model uncertainty in the final hydrologic projections.
Our estimates of
key climate model uncertainties are constrained by observations of the climate system for the period 1906 - 1995, 7 and uncertainty in emissions reflect errors in measurement of current emissions and expert judgment about variables that influence key economic projections.
The climate model uncertainty for this is relatively low, but it is important to separate the model uncertainty from the uncertainty of a sudden termination scenario.
Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate
the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity.
We introduce estimation and testing procedures based on likelihood maximization, and show that
climate modelling uncertainty can easily be accounted for.
Climate modelling uncertainty is difficult to take into account with regression based methods and is almost never treated explicitly.
The primary consequence of considering this alternative paradigm is to narrow
the climate modelling uncertainty.