For instance, Shackley et al., 1999 surveyed
climate modellers about one type of fudge factor, called a «flux adjustment», which was used by many of the climate models in the 1990s.
Not exact matches
Till now,
climate modellers» forecasts of future warming have resembled the famous bell curve, with the most likely result of doubling CO2 being a temperature increase of
about 3 °C, and with declining probabilities on either side for a narrow range of higher and lower temperature rises (see Graph).
The most detailed record of the Earth's
climate over the past 250 000 years is making modern
climate modellers think again
about the implications of a greenhouse world
Charles Lansdale wonders why we should believe predictions
about climate change 50 years into the future when computer
modellers sometimes...
Assuming the numbers stack up, sauropods warmed the planet by
about 1 °C, says
climate modeller David Beerling of the University of Sheffield, UK.
«If we assume an optimistic scenario for greenhouse gas emissions — the RCP 2.6 scenario, [see Fact Box] which would result in a warming of
about two degrees Celsius — then we can expect an increase in sea level similar to what we see in this video,» says
climate modeller Martin Stendel from the Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen.
Statements such as «They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models» reveals he has never had a conversation with a
climate modeller — our concerns
about ice sheets for instance come
about precisely because we aren't yet capable of modelling them satisfactorily.
It is really
about time that
climate modellers who are posting on this blog came down from their ivory towers and had a look at the real world.
Some of the models also involve ensemble calculations, and again it may be instructive for the
climate modellers to describe something
about the use of these, especially as the public has been involved in some ensemble calculations being run on their pc's at home.
I'll bet my house on little green Martians arriving and asking to be taken to see Chris Monckton before I'll expect any
climate modellers to give a t ** s
about observational data.
This week,
about 150 of the world's top
climate modellers have converged on Reading for a four day meeting to plan a revolution in
climate prediction.
I defer to the
climate modellers on the question of what levels of temperature rise to be concerned
about and how to do the modelling.
This is not surprising either, since, unlike
climate modellers, they may actually have some detailed knowledge
about the history of the Earth.
For this reason, Shackley et al. found that many
climate modellers didn't want to talk openly
about their adjustments, in case critics of man - made global warming (who they referred to as «
climate contrarians») would use them to question the reliability of the models:
«Of course there are gaps in our knowledge
about Earth's
climate system and its components, and yes, nothing has been made clear enough to the public,» says Gavin Schmidt, a
climate modeller at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and one of the moderators and contributors to the influential RealClimate blog.
«You need to be very circumspect
about the added value of downscaling to regional impacts,» agrees Hans von Storch, a
climate modeller at the GKSS Institute for Coastal Research in Geesthacht, Germany, who has recently contributed to a regional
climate assessment of the Hamburg metropolitan region.
I was teased by my
climate modeller colleagues
about so much hands - on work with
climate proxies (e.g., tree rings and ocean sediment cores) and was considered askance by my
climate proxy colleagues.
This should, in theory, lead to more realistic projections for the future, but many of the
climate modellers I spoke to were keen to point out that simulating the
climate with more complex models may well lead to greater uncertainty
about what the future holds.
The current adjustments and hyperventilation
about the biblical sanctity of the temperature and models are being done by the
climate scientists and
modellers who have till date not shown any skills or capability to do that job fairly and ethically and especially present results as they are, without spinning or putting a slant on them or» adjusting» them.
One of the world's top
climate modellers said Thursday we could be
about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.