For this reason, Shackley et al. found that many climate modellers didn't want to talk openly about their adjustments, in case critics of man - made global warming (who they referred to as «climate contrarians») would use them to question the reliability of the models:
Climate modellers didn't make greenhouse gas changes the dominant effect — human civilisation did.
I also think that paleoclimate scientists tend to see more possibility of abrupt climate changes than
climate modellers do.
But in general the tests that
climate modellers do when they claim «regime shifts» aren't particularly statistially rigorous.
Not exact matches
«This research
does not change the consensus view that human emissions drive
climate change,» says Fortunat Joos, a
climate modeller at the University of Bern, Switzerland.
Do you think
climate modellers have an infinite amount of time to spend on
doing scenarios?
But they
do highlight a big challenge for
climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for
modellers and for
climate scientists who work with proxy data.»
[Response: That «
modeller» is me (I don't like that label, as I've
done sea - going measurements and published papers on data analysis and theory — my topic is
climate, and models are just one tool for its investigation).
This validation is what most
climate modellers spend almost all their time
doing.
Indeed, it is precisely that reason why
modellers don't spend time tuning models to specific datasets of
climate change — you never know when some feature might disappear.
Re # 31 from Lynn, where she congratulates the
climate modellers on a job well
done.
I
do not doubt the sincerety and expertise of the
climate modellers, but seriously question the policy actions that are based upon the models.
Why
do climate modellers put uncertainties on their results, but I never hear any uncertainties associated with the costs of implementing Kyoto?
I defer to the
climate modellers on the question of what levels of temperature rise to be concerned about and how to
do the modelling.
Computer
modellers from other fields to check GCMs are being
done right, statisticians to check that the
climate scientists sums are being
done right, physicists to check the physics, mathematicians to check the maths, technicians to check the equipment being used to make observations that constitute the data.
And don't forget that the best evidence seems to be that in
climate there are cycles within cycles, not all by any means of known regularity, and those can't be easily replicated by
modellers who like linear projections.
This is what the
climate modellers are
doing.
And the observable tendency for all
climate modellers to run away and hide under a stone if anyone suggests that such an exercise might be a great way to show how good they are
does not build confidence that a stupendous exhibition of predictive skill is just around the corner.
But what
do climate modellers care for such real - world scientific laws?
I think paleoclimate is more useful than
climate modelling (but don't tell that to the
modellers!).
A
climate modeller claims that
climate models don't need to be validated?
British
climate modellers at the Met Office don't go so far.
What the
climate modellers are trying to
do is model the effect of a sustained and long lasting increase in the CO2 level above the ocean's and biosphere's natural ability to absorb it.
The current adjustments and hyperventilation about the biblical sanctity of the temperature and models are being
done by the
climate scientists and
modellers who have till date not shown any skills or capability to
do that job fairly and ethically and especially present results as they are, without spinning or putting a slant on them or» adjusting» them.
Give me a couple of those billions of US dollars you
climate modellers have, and I will give you the data and present the result at same time as 5AR;-P It
does not hurt to be open for other possible truth than the old progress all the time... And take this issue into the IPCC and ask whether there is institutional and other mechanisms that run contrary to self - correction....
And if for example a
climate modeller (lets call him «Gavin» just for fun) were to hear that his work was being misrepresented I'm sure he'd run post haste to the nearest media outlet to denounce those who wilfully
do so.