[Reply: This isn't about
climate models at all.
Experiments with
climate models at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and in Tokyo using the Earth Simulator model have found that with a doubling of CO2, there was an increase in intensity of hurricanes and, simultaneously, an overall decrease in frequency.
«CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5
Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site.»
Peika said,» It might affect models used for weather forecasting and dynamics that occurs at a level that's not described in most
climate models at all.»
«We have groups doing numerical weather prediction, hurricanes, climate, oceans, but in the international arena, countries have whole institutions doing the functions of these individual groups,» said Dr. Ronald J. Stouffer, who designs and runs
climate models at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., a top Commerce Department center for weather and climate work.
As a result, the phenomena I describe above, with the rapid changes in circulation regimes, are not represented in
the climate models at all except as gridcell sized averages...
And of course there's still substantial uncertainty in
climate models at the regional scale in war - prone places (again, a prime example is the set of countries along the southern fringe of the Sahara Desert, where models still clash on which areas will grow drier or wetter; see my Somalia posts.)
In fact, the logarithmic nature of the climate forcing due to CO2 is built into the radiative transfer used in all IPCC climate models, and has been taken into account in
climate models at least since the late 1950's.
There are plenty of other examples, and of course, there is a lot of intrinsic interest in paleoclimate that is not related to
climate models at all!
Wigley et al. (1997) pointed out that uncertainties in forcing and response made it impossible to use observed global temperature changes to constrain ECS more tightly than the range explored by
climate models at the time (1.5 °C to 4.5 °C), and particularly the upper end of the range, a conclusion confirmed by subsequent studies.
To determine the temperature of different portions of the atmosphere, Santer and his colleagues sampled the output of global
climate models at specific areas of the atmosphere where temperature is currently measured by satellites.
Using
climate models at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, François Forget (CNRS) and Martin Turbet (UPMC) show that, with a cold climate and an atmosphere denser than it is today, ice accumulated at around latitude 25 ° S, in regions corresponding to the sources of now dry river beds.
One
climate model at Princeton University's Geo physical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory predicts that central India will have doubled precipitation, while the centers of continents at middle latitudes — the midwestern United States, for example — will actually have much drier summers than they have now (this summer's drought could, in other words, be a foretaste).
Where climate sensitivity is estimated in studies involving comparing observations with values simulated by a forced
climate model at varying parameter settings (see Appendix 9.
CSMD (Climate System Modeling Division), 2005: An introduction to the first general operational
climate model at the National Climate Center.
The delta method interpolates the General Circulation Model generally used in
climate modelling at scales of 100 to 200 km using a thin plate spline spatial interpolation method to achieve the 30 arc seconds resolution [52].
Last week, there was a CORDEX workshop on regional
climate modelling at International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), near Trieste, Italy.
«Julian Hunt, emeritus professor of
climate modelling at University College London... said the higher range of the prediction was looking «increasingly likely», but for three particular reasons:
Ben Santer, a specialist in
climate modeling at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and veteran of the climate wars of the 1990s, distributed «An Open Letter to the Climate Science Community» tonight (which I saw via the Google Group on Geoengineering; it's also on DeSmogBlog).
A detailed reanalysis is presented of a «Bayesian» climate parameter study (Forest et al., 2006) that estimates climate sensitivity (ECS) jointly with effective ocean diffusivity and aerosol forcing, using optimal fingerprints to compare multi-decadal observations with simulations by the MIT 2D
climate model at varying settings of the three climate parameters.
Then there's Schmidt's presentation on
climate modeling at this year's TED conference, which took place in Vancouver in February:
Direct comparison of the radiances predicted by the model to those observed by AIRS in the thermal spectral regions dominated by water vapor absorption provides a means of assessing the simulation of water vapor in
the climate model at the high level of detail provided by spectral measurements.
Copy of a presentation by scientist Andrew Callegari regarding «CO2 Greenhouse Effect» and Exxon
climate modeling at an August 24, 1982 meeting.
«Recent
climate modelling at CSIRO shows that there may be important effects on Australian climate due to aerosol pollution from the Northern Hemisphere.
As I recall realclimate did do a simple
climate model at one point.
Where climate sensitivity is estimated in studies involving comparing observations with values simulated by a forced
climate model at varying parameter settings (see Appendix 9.
Malcolm, if you want to run
a climate model at home on your Mac, you will see from ClimatePrediction's (CPDN's) application's page http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/apps.php that three of the four model types currently on offer should run on it.
Not exact matches
Earlier in the fall, we commissioned economic
modelling to look
at the benefits of building on the best elements of today's provincial
climate policies.
It
modeled the implications for the company of a requirement for emissions to decline to levels consistent with a so - called «2 °C world» after 2030 and also looked
at a number of alternative scenarios based on divergent ranges in global growth and trade, geopolitics, technological innovation and responses to
climate change.
I confess that I have become somewhat blasé about the range of exciting — I think revolutionary is probably more accurate — technologies that we are rolling out today: our work in genomics and its translation into varieties that are reaching poor farmers today; our innovative integration of long — term and multilocation trials with crop
models and modern IT and communications technology to reach farmers in ways we never even imagined five years ago; our vision to create a C4 rice and see to it that Golden Rice reaches poor and hungry children; maintaining productivity gains in the face of dynamic pests and pathogens; understanding the nature of the rice grain and what makes for good quality; our many efforts to change the way rice is grown to meet the challenges of changing rural economies, changing societies, and a changing
climate; and, our extraordinary array of partnerships that has placed us
at the forefront of the CGIAR change process through the Global Rice Science Partnership.
This study looked
at genetic (varieties) and management (row spacing and nitrogen) options to minimise the impact of
climate change, using rain - out shelters to control rainfall; the results provided a platform to
model wheat production in future
climates.
You are saying, the
model says that we could run the risk
at two degrees of
climate change and these are reasons why we might do that, or you could run it
at 1 % and these are the political implications.
Back then, it said that the planet was warming
at a rate of 0.2 C every decade — a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer
climate models.
It's going to be one of the major topics
at a regional
Climate Solutions Summit in Syracuse this weekend, as the city hopes to take the lead on an energy supply
model that uses renewable energy.
During a first postdoc, she focused on the theoretical side, producing a mathematical
model complex enough to represent the physical processes
at play yet simple enough that it could also be included in a global
climate model, she says.
If the effects of
climate change weren't included in the
model, the trends toward bigger seasonal variations in CO2
at Arctic latitudes disappeared, researchers report online today in Science.
Dr. Holloway is a Professor in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, where she leads a research program that employs computer
models and satellite data to understand links between regional air quality, energy, and
climate.
Murali Haran, a professor in the department of statistics
at Penn State University; Won Chang, an assistant professor in the department of mathematical sciences
at the University of Cincinnati; Klaus Keller, a professor in the department of geosciences and director of sustainable
climate risk management
at Penn State University; Rob Nicholas, a research associate
at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute
at Penn State University; and David Pollard, a senior scientist
at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute
at Penn State University detail how parameters and initial values drive an ice sheet
model, whose output describes the behavior of the ice sheet through time.
Gavin Schmidt, a
climate scientist and modeler
at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said this sort of research is useful for modelers, who can take these results and see whether they show up when they run their
models.
In the Department of Meteorology
at Stockholm University (MISU), researchers have done a series of
model simulations investigating tropical cyclone activity during an earlier warm
climate, the mid-Holocene, 6,000 years ago.
KATHARINE HAYHOE is an atmospheric scientist
at Texas Tech University, where she studies
climate modeling and the regional impacts of global warming.
«
Models do a good job
at simulating some elements of the
climate system, but they disagree on key aspects of the land - atmosphere CO2 exchange, and in particular the amount of carbon being sequestered,» Rawlins said in a statement.
His team built a
model with agents representing 1.4 million households around the globe — roughly 10,000 per country — and looked
at how
climate change and disasters might affect health, food security, and labor productivity.
By mapping persistent springs across the African landscape, the researchers have been able to
model how our ancestors may have moved between water sources
at different times and how this impacted their ability to traverse the landscape as the
climate changed.
The ability to make and study cubic ice in the laboratory could improve computer
models of how clouds interact with sunlight and the atmosphere — two keys to understanding
climate change, said Barbara Wyslouzil, project leader and professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering
at The Ohio State University.
«Current
climate developments are
at the very worst end of the computer
model predictions,» he says.
Planning meetings for the Global Seed Vault in Norway spawned the idea of looking
at average summer temperatures, which
climate models can project relatively reliably and which have a large impact on crop yields — between 2.5 and 16 percent less wheat, corn, soy or other crops are produced for every 1.8 — degree F (1 — degree C) rise.
According to Greg Okin, a professor of geography
at the University of California, Los Angeles, «
Climate models predict that the Southwest should get warmer and drier, and that by 2050 soil moisture could be lower than the US Dust Bowl Era.»
Forecasts without systematic errors:
climate models, such as the
model MPI - ESM LR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, predict a significant increase in temperature by the end of this century, especially
at the Earth's poles.
No time to adapt In terms of adaptation, the rate of
climate change might be more important than how much the
climate changes, said Alan Robock, a
climate scientist
at Rutgers University who ran some of the
models for the study.