«When the processes are correct in
the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher.
Not exact matches
It
modeled the implications for the company of a requirement for emissions to decline to
levels consistent with a so - called «2 °C world» after 2030 and also looked at a number of alternative scenarios based on divergent ranges in global growth and trade, geopolitics, technological innovation and responses to
climate change.
The study concludes that incorporating this new insight into soil
models will improve our understanding of how soils influence atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels and global
climate.
Climate models show it's enough to shake up ecosystems and make sea
levels rise.
The data is important for
climate change
models, since the emissions released by thawing permafrost could significantly affect
levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Considering that existing
climate models typically do not consider northeast Greenland with future sea -
level projections, the findings suggest that sea -
level rise estimates may err on the high side, close to 3 feet or higher, said Khan.
Landerer and his colleagues
modelled the changes that would occur if the most realistic estimates made by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change — a doubling of carbon dioxide
levels by 2100 compared with 2000 — were to become reality.
Barnard and his team predicted how SoCal's shores would evolve from 2010 through 2100 by
modeling the factors that influence beaches — estimates for sea
level rise as well as wave and storm behavior and predicted
climate change patterns if the world eventually stabilizes its greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, then starts reducing them.
EPRI's conclusions about energy technology gains were fed into a second computer
model to assess the costs of stripping 80 percent of 1990 -
level carbon emissions out of the electricity sector by 2050, approximating the goal of the House - passed
climate bill.
Global
climate models predict that already - wet regions, such as the northeastern United States, will get even wetter by the end of the century if carbon dioxide
levels reach 717 parts per million.
On a basic
level, global
climate models are similar to today's weather forecasting tools, explains Jerry Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and a leading
climate modeler.
Climate models show that if CO2
levels stopped rising now, the world would still warm by a further 0.6 °C.
A new
climate change
modeling tool developed by scientists at Indiana University, Princeton University and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration finds that carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere owing to greater plant growth from rising CO2
levels will be partially offset by changes in the activity of soil microbes that derive their energy from plant root growth.
«We're looking for more Michigan - or Great Lakes -
level detail on a
climate model, which we haven't seen yet,» said Niles Annelin, an environmental policy specialist at the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT).
If conditions are particularly wet in coming decades, as some regional
climate models have predicted, New Haven's groundwater
levels could rise even farther.
Climate models suggest that widespread glaciations couldn't take place at that time unless CO2
levels dropped to about eight times what they are at present, says Tim Lenton, an earth scientist at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom.
Using sophisticated atmospheric and
climate models, the researchers estimated the
levels of PM2.5 directly attributable to wildfires during a recent six - year period, 2004 to 2009, as well as under projected future
climate change conditions (2046 - 2051).
The
models show that
climate change is a less influential driver of global food security than income, population and productivity — but it could still pose a significant risk to the nutrition
levels of people living in the world's poorest regions, Baldos said.
For the study «Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea
level by mid-century in Hawaiʻi,» published this week in Natural Hazards, the research team developed a simple
model to assess future erosion hazards under higher sea
levels — taking into account historical changes of Hawaiʻi shorelines and the projected acceleration of sea
level rise reported from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
Most current
climate models predict what will happen when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches twice preindustrial
levels, or some 1.2 trillion tonnes of carbon.
Uncertainty about rain, little uncertainty about sea
level rise
Climate change could also affect precipitation in California, though the two
models USGS used in its research produced different results.
A new study in Geophysical Research Letters uses historical
climate model simulations to demonstrate that there has been an Arctic - wide decrease in sea
level pressure since the 1800's.
They used two different
climate models, each with a different sensitivity to carbon dioxide, to project California's future under two scenarios: an optimistic one, in which we only double the
level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — since the 19th century we've already increased it by about a third — and a pessimistic scenario, in which we more than triple CO2.
At the same time, new studies of
climate sensitivity — the amount of warming expected for a doubling of carbon dioxide
levels from 0.03 to 0.06 percent in the atmosphere — have suggested that most
models are too sensitive.
Elisabetta Pierazzo of the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson, Arizona, and colleagues used a global
climate model to study how water vapour and sea salt thrown up from an impact will affect ozone
levels for years after the event.
The international team of co-authors, led by Peter Clark of Oregon State University, generated new scenarios for temperature rise, glacial melting, sea -
level rise and coastal flooding based on state - of - the - art
climate and ice sheet
models.
The researchers looked at a total of 34 different global
climate model outputs, encompassing different degrees of atmospheric sensitivity to greenhouse gases and different
levels of human emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
That's basic physics and chemistry and people who claim that they don't believe that, they don't believe we're warming the planet through increasing CO2
levels because of
climate models, they don't understand the fact that you don't need a
climate model to come to that conclusion.
«This new
climate model will help us more accurately and quickly provide resource planners with environmental intelligence at the regional
level.
New
climate models — made by using estimated radiation
levels from that time, along with data from the Magellan spacecraft about Venus's current surface — suggest that Venus would have been only 11 °C (52 °F).
Coastal defenses are becoming more important as sea
levels rise, he notes, and
climate models suggest some parts of the planet will become stormier.
So they created a set of global
climate models to analyze the ocean and atmosphere over a 40 - year period, keeping carbon dioxide
levels fixed.
Climatologist Stephen Sitch of the Met Office Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, England, and his colleagues used a climate model to examine the impact of rising O3
Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, England, and his colleagues used a
climate model to examine the impact of rising O3
climate model to examine the impact of rising O3
levels.
In
climate science, for example, where we don't need an elaborate
climate model to understand the basic physics and chemistry of greenhouse gases, so at some
level the fact that increased CO2 warms the planet is a consequence of very basic physics and chemistry.
Climate models are not yet able to include full
models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and to dynamically simulate how ice sheet changes influence sea
level.
Including the elevation effects in the
model increases the estimated sea -
level rise by a small but significant amount (5 % enhancement of melt by 2100 and 10 % by 2200 for a
climate warming scenario).
Among the implications of the study are that ocean temperatures in this area may be more sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas
levels than previously thought and that scientists should be factoring entrainment into their
models for predicting future
climate change.
Moreover, the impacts of that warming, including sea
level rise, drought, floods and other extreme weather, could hit earlier and harder than many
models project, said study co-author John Fasullo, a
climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
The finding, detailed in the Jan. 22 issue of the journal Nature, suggests that this process could be important to more accurately
modeling how Greenland will respond to
climate change and contribute to the already 8 inches of global sea
level rise since 1900.
Climate models such as those developed at GFDL can help researchers predict future
levels of smog, enabling cost - benefit analyses for costly pollution control measures.
Consequences of global sea
level rise could be even scarier than the worst - case scenarios predicted by the dominant
climate models
Those data, to be collected this year and next, could improve
climate models, which account poorly for these atmospheric interactions and contain «horrific» uncertainties about the
levels and behaviour of water vapour at stratospheric altitudes, Austin says.
The researchers found
climate models that show a low global temperature response to carbon dioxide do not include enough of this lower -
level water vapour process.
Now the National Science Foundation (NSF), along with the U.S. Energy and Agriculture departments are teaming up to financially support the development of new computer
models aimed at revealing the anticipated effects of
climate change at the regional
level.
Climate change
models have typically underestimated the amount of sea
level rise observed over the past century.
O'Gorman studied daily snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere using 20 different
climate models, each of which projected
climate change over a 100 - year period, given certain
levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, an international organization created by the United Nations that produces climate change models, has predicted that sea levels could rise as much as 21 feet (6.4 meters) in the next century if global warming continues un
Climate Change, an international organization created by the United Nations that produces
climate change models, has predicted that sea levels could rise as much as 21 feet (6.4 meters) in the next century if global warming continues un
climate change
models, has predicted that sea
levels could rise as much as 21 feet (6.4 meters) in the next century if global warming continues unabated.
The consequences of global sea
level rise could be even scarier than the worst - case scenarios predicted by the dominant
climate models, which don't fully account for the fast breakup of ice sheets and glaciers, NASA scientists said today (Aug. 26) at a press briefing.
So Nerem and his team used
climate models to account for the volcanic effects and other datasets to determine the ENSO effects, ultimately uncovering the underlying sea -
level rate and acceleration over the last quarter century.
Climate modeling and observational data suggest the world is already on track to reach dangerous
levels of warming by the end of the century, according to the two papers.