Among the hundreds of thousands of
climate observations recorded in the Bureau's database each day, it is unavoidable that some records contain errors.
Among the hundreds of thousands of
climate observations recorded in the Bureau of Meteorology's database each day, it is unavoidable that some records will not necessarily be correct.
Not exact matches
In the interest of our future world, scientists must seek to understand the complexities of linked natural events and field
observations that are revealed in the geologic
record of past warmer
climates.
Next, before coming to their findings, the team compared these growth
records to
climate observations, examining factors like precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation.
It was not until 1976 that a paper published in Science by John A. Eddy of Saginaw Valley State University renewed interest in the sun -
climate relationship with a comprehensive analysis of many different historical
records of solar
observation.
Suomi NPP's job is to collect environmental
observations of atmosphere, ocean and land for both NOAA's weather and oceanography operational missions and NASA's research mission to continue the long - term
climate record to better understand Earth's
climate and long - term trends.
The researchers at the Laboratory for
Climate Sciences and the Environment at Gif sur Yvette analysed computer models of the interactions between climate and the biosphere, and combined them with observations of carbon dioxide uptake from ecosystems, and records of crop
Climate Sciences and the Environment at Gif sur Yvette analysed computer models of the interactions between
climate and the biosphere, and combined them with observations of carbon dioxide uptake from ecosystems, and records of crop
climate and the biosphere, and combined them with
observations of carbon dioxide uptake from ecosystems, and
records of crop yields.
The Keelilng
record was not the first carbon dioxide
observation: but it was the first with the high accuracy over a long time period needed for
climate change research.
Once we have used real
observations to understand the probability in the historical
record, then we can use
climate models to compare the probability in the current
climate (in which global warming has occurred) with a
climate in which there was no human - caused global warming.
Dr Roy Spencer writes: As seen in the following graphic, over the period of the satellite
record (1979 - 2012), both the surface and satellite
observations produce linear temperature trends which are below...
Climate Change Is Real.
First of all probably the biggest
climate news of 2017 comes not from the scientific literature (is therefore not featured in the Royal Society report), but from direct global
observations: based on preliminary data the current year is likely to rank among the three hottest years on the global
record — including 2015 (2nd) and 2016 (1st), with 2014 ranking 4th.
Merchant, C. J., Paul, F., Popp, T., Ablain, M., Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., Hollmann, R., Lavergne, T., Laeng, A., de Leeuw, G., Mittaz, J., Poulsen, C., Povey, A. C., Reuter, M., Sathyendranath, S., Sandven, S., Sofieva, V. F., and Wagner, W.: Uncertainty information in
climate data
records from Earth
observation, Earth Syst.
Since
recorded climate observations have only been for a very short period in the billion year history of
climate on this Earth, I am bemused by both sides of the AGW debate claiming any discernable trend either way.
Paul Williams,
climate scientist at the University of Reading, agreed: «All the thermometer readings, satellite
observations, tree rings, ice cores and sea - level
records would have to be wrong.»
The day - by - day, month - by - month, year - by - year, etc. sequencing of values, however, will not correspond to
observations, since
climate models solve a «boundary value problem» and are not constrained to reproduce the timing of natural
climate variability (e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation) in the observational
record.
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature
records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature
observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and
climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006»
Here we construct a database of worldwide RS
observations matched with high - resolution historical
climate data and find a previously unknown temporal trend in the RS
record after accounting for mean annual
climate, leaf area, nitrogen deposition and changes in CO2 measurement technique.
A recent study by Cowtan et al. (paper here) suggests that accounting for these biases between the global temperature
record and those taken from
climate models reduces the divergence in trend between models and
observations since 1975 by over a third.
Abrupt
climate change in the modern
record explains
observations that have been a puzzle for decades — notably the Pacific
climate shift of 1976/1977.
Estimates from proxy data1 (for example, based on sediment
records) are shown in red (1800 - 1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data in blue for 1880 - 2009,2 and satellite
observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012.3 The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100.4 These scenarios are not based on
climate model simulations, but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other kinds of scientific studies.
A homogeneous
climate record is one in which all observed
climate variations are due to the behaviour of the atmosphere, not other influences, such as changes in location, exposure of the
observation site, instrumentation type or measuring procedure.
There are, however, caveats: (1) multidecadal fluctuations in Arctic — subarctic
climate and sea ice appear most pronounced in the Atlantic sector, such that the pan-Arctic signal may be substantially smaller [e.g., Polyakov et al., 2003; Mahajan et al., 2011]; (2) the sea - ice
records synthesized here represent primarily the cold season (winter — spring), whereas the satellite
record clearly shows losses primarily in summer, suggesting that other processes and feedback are important; (3)
observations show that while recent sea - ice losses in winter are most pronounced in the Greenland and Barents Seas, the largest reductions in summer are remote from the Atlantic, e.g., Beaufort, Chukchi, and Siberian seas (National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2012, http://nsidc.org/Arcticseaicenews/); and (4) the recent reductions in sea ice should not be considered merely the latest in a sequence of AMOrelated multidecadal fluctuations but rather the first one to be superposed upon an anthropogenic GHG warming background signal that is emerging strongly in the Arctic [Kaufmann et al., 2009; Serreze et al., 2009].
... [U] nless revised plans compensate for the anticipated shortcomings in
climate observations, gaps in several key
climate data
records (some that go back almost 30 years) are highly likely....
The IPCC's estimate of
climate sensitivity takes into account all lines of evidence, including recent
observations,
records of temperature in earth's distant past and
climate models.
While the
climate change signal is much clearer in the northern latitudes - where longer - term
records show a relatively steady retreat of Arctic sea ice - evidence of global warming's impact around Antarctica is also showing up in the
observations.
The GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), NCDC (National
Climate Data Center), and CRU (
Climate Research Unit) data are all compiled from surface
records, while the RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) and UAH (University of Alabama - Huntsville) data are compiled from satellite
observations of the lower atmosphere.
The worst example [I've heard of,] of weather data
recording (a basic input into
climate change assessment de nos jours) was in East Africa, where one year someone noticed a remarkable similarity between the current and the previous [an archived] year's
observations.
«Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature
records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature
observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and
climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006»
Climate sensitivities estimated from recent
observations will therefore be biased low in comparison with CO2 - only simulations owing to an accident of history: when the efficacies of the forcings in the recent historical
record are properly taken into account, estimates of [Transient
Climate Respons — TCR] and [Equilibrium
Climate Sensitivity — ECS] must be revised upwards.
Faron's work now centres on improving our understanding of BC's
climate over the period since instrumental weather
observations began to be
recorded in the late 1800s.
In an unchanging
climate, we would expect
record - breaking temperatures to get rarer as the
observation record grows longer.
[Please note the model shows a lot of Amazon heating, but little (annual mean) Amazon drying — which does not correspond well with findings from the Pleistocene
climate record or present - day (2005, 2010 droughts)
observations.
More substantial changes would be along the lines of «Exploring potential impacts of a 2C world using insights from paleo
climate records, modern
observations and
climate modelling» or «Exploring the potential for tipping points in the
climate system before 2C».
Impact: A greater understanding of radiation
observations in the absence of model calculations, and vice versa, can be established to fill gaps in the
climate record.
This time period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as
climate trends are measured over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the global instrumental
record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and ocean
observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere
climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
There are at least 90 models that differ by a factor of more than 3 and almost all show much higher temps than have been
recorded (see Spencer «95 % of
climate models agree; the
observations must be wrong»).
There are several factors that are important in monitoring global or U.S. temperature: quality of raw
observations, length of
record of
observations, and the analysis methods used to transform raw data into reliable
climate data
records by removing existing biases from the data.
Over the next 3 years the Ocean Colour
Climate Change Initiative project aims to: Develop and validate algorithms to meet the Ocean Colour GCOS ECV requirements for consistent, stable, error - characterized global satellite data products from multi-sensor data archives; Produce and validate, within an R&D context, the most complete and consistent possible time series of multi-sensor global satellite data products for climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
Climate Change Initiative project aims to: Develop and validate algorithms to meet the Ocean Colour GCOS ECV requirements for consistent, stable, error - characterized global satellite data products from multi-sensor data archives; Produce and validate, within an R&D context, the most complete and consistent possible time series of multi-sensor global satellite data products for
climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on
climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate data
records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth
observation,
climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific excellence.
These
records can then be integrated with
observations of Earth's modern
climate and placed into a computer model to infer past as well as predict future
climate.
A 35 - year dust
record established from Barbados surface dust and satellite
observations from TOMS and the European geostationary meteorological satellite (Meteosat) show the importance of
climate control and Sahel drought for interannual and decadal dust variability, with no overall trend yet documented (Chiapello et al., 2005).
Climatereason asserts: «Britain has the finest
climate records in the world both instrumental and
observations.»
The historical
climate record and recent
observations (as against fallible computer models) show that CO2 doesn't cause warming — game over for the AGW supporters, which means that the thousands on non-jobs that have been supporting this non event (hoax) need to go.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the temperature trend during the recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data» in those trends (what the earth's temperature /
climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «
climate change»), and what represents experimental error in the plots (UHI increases in the temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus)
records getting skipped that inflate winter temperatures, differences in sea
records from different measuring techniques, sea
records vice land
records, extrapolated land
records over hundreds of km, surface temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface
records and stations, false and malicious time - of -
observation bias changes in the information.)
In this second article we re-examine related events concerning the 1850/1880 CRU / Giss temperature
records, and then pay particular attention to the reliability of those readings that have become the basis of our modern
climate industry, examine those who carried out the original
observations, and look at the circumstances under which data was collected.
Your
observation that paleo
records tend to miss the shorter term variations seen in instrumental
records is interesting, as this weakness would lead to doubtful conclusions that past centuries saw less
climate variability than we now observe (Shaun Lovejoy article in Climate Etc. in January
climate variability than we now observe (Shaun Lovejoy article in
Climate Etc. in January
Climate Etc. in January 2013).
Instead, Abbott chose to dig himself deeper, extending his denialism on bushfires and further claiming that the
observation of
record high temperatures is not evidence of
climate change.
This recent shift towards more intense and frequent El Niños is related to the recent increase in dry areas around the world.5 However, past
observations and reconstructions of El Niño events from non-instrumental
records such as corals show that El Niño events naturally fluctuate in magnitude and frequency over time, and this has been demonstrated in long
climate model simulations of past and future
climate as well.6
So using the criteria of «noticeable»
climate change that would affect humanity and nature, that can be reasonably validated against the benchmark of the 1920 - 40 period by such
records as instrumental and crop, or
observations, and as being of a duration of at least one decade, we have some 15 decadal episodes of «noticeable»
climate change, (up and down) between1538 and 2012.
The satellite
record, in concert with instrumental
observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of
climate perturbations, wherein the Earth - atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium.
Combining
observations with information from ECMWF's global forecast model produces a comprehensive, consistent and up - to - date
record of the recent
climate, unavoidably also carrying a degree of uncertainty.