It is speculated that this is the straw that pushes
climate over thresholds.
Not exact matches
«Finding the
thresholds in plant physiology after which
climate stress causes tree mortality will allow us to resolve uncertainty
over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing
climate,» said lead author Anderegg.
Understanding how carbon flows between land, air and water is key to predicting how much greenhouse gas emissions the earth, atmosphere and ocean can tolerate
over a given time period to keep global warming and
climate change at
thresholds considered tolerable.
There was a conference held at the begining of this year that went
over this sort of thing, it was subtitled «Avoiding Dangerous
Climate Change» and you can find the presentation [slides] that were presented at http://www.stabilisation2005.com/programme.html There's a lot of interesting things about possible
thresholds, stabilisation levels for CO2 and emission reduction pathways and the potential costs.
Accepting that
climate is the statistics of weather
over some reasonable time period, I want to ask about something that
climate modelling does not seem to address —
thresholds.
The first report knew, and commented on, the possibilities of gradual
climate change pushing ecosystems or economies
over thresholds and triggering abrupt responses, but the new report focuses on such tipping points in our societies and environment.
As the Trump administration charges forward with its war on science by canceling a «crucial» carbon monitoring system at NASA, scientists and
climate experts are sounding alarms
over atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) that just surpassed a «troubling»
threshold for the first time in human history.
Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction at the Met Office and member of the RMetS»
Climate Science Communication Group, commented: «These predictions show that 1.5 °C events are now looming
over the horizon, but the global pattern of heat would be different to a more sustained exceeding of the Paris 1.5 °C
threshold.
Besides, because
climate is constantly and widely varying so a variable may become more or less important
over time as
thresholds change.
One long term example of
thresholds are the bounds of the
climate over the last 1 million years.
This is just the latest peer - reviewed study finding methane leakage rates well below the
threshold for natural gas to maintain its
climate benefits
over other traditional fuel alternatives.
Without going into the details, the Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR) proposal foresees levying the equivalent of a
climate «consumption luxury tax» on every person who earns
over a «development
threshold» of $ 9,000 per year.
I was pointing out that this is increasingly the challenge to the
climate consensus that is voiced in public, per Carlson in the video, and that this approach will increasingly help expose the gap between the narrative of certain calamity (whatever its touted
threshold du jour, which has changed
over the years and may continue to do so) and the reality of what is knowable even in the way that the IPCC defines this knowability (let alone what is knowable when taking approaches to uncertainty such as that of our host here).
And which ones are the control variables of
climate, which push the system
over those
thresholds?
IMO it's not particularly sensible to frame the entire issue in terms of the small chance of «
climate catastrophe» because then we risk having the rug abruptly pulled out from under our policies when someone proves that the catastrophe is less likely than was previously thought: — RRB - Also, arguing
over the precise
threshold probability for particular outcomes risks turning into angels - on - pins stuff.
Again, all of your social considerations go right out the window when we are talking about culpability for taking us
over the
threshold of dangerous
climate change.
The dynamical mechanism — control variables that push the system past a
threshold triggering a cascade of changes — is the key to understanding the changing trajectory of 20th century, the current hiatus, abrupt variability
over the Holocene and longer and the uncertainties in anticipating 21st century
climate evolution and longer.