Sentences with phrase «climate prediction skill»

Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing

The discussion on the issue of multi-decadal climate prediction skill, and the meanings given to the terms «prediction»,» projection» and «scenario» have continued also in the comments to the posts

Not exact matches

By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in regional hurricane prediction.

Prediction skill of the climate models is the issue that matters.

Collins (2002) investigated this type of climate prediction, and found limited skill using a few metrics, in a few regions (one of these included the north Atlantic).

And one more thing that really bothers me about climate model predictions that is rarely discussed around here, and kind of swept into the closet, which is prediction skill.

Mark also explained how the prediction of climate indices is related to the prediction of average variables, and how this relationship can be used to predict the skill of climate indices (which is not always straightforward).

Although the forecast quality of climate predictions in Europe is low, sometimes the realism and reliability of these predictions can overcome the lack of skill.

``... since uncertainty is a structural component of climate and hydrological systems, Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010) found that large uncertainties and poor skill were shown by GCM predictions without bias correction... it can not be addressed through increased model complexity....

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

The attempt to distinguish between the terms «projection» and «prediction», whether by the IPCC or others, has introduced an unnecessary confusion to the impacts and policy communities regarding the skill of regional and local multi-decadal climate model runs.

This skill must be assessed by predicting global, regional and local average climate, and any climate change that was observed over the last several decades (i.e. «hindcast model predictions»).

However, type 4 downscaling, while providing the illusion of higher skill because of the high spatial resolution climate fields, has never shown skill at prediction beyond what is already there in the parent global model.

A measure of skill of predictions thus should be that the observed climate trends fall within the range of an ensemble of hindcast predictions.

Roger states that one can not consider climate model predictions (his type 4) at the regional scale when their predictive skill in hindcast mode is not demonstrated.

Pielke and Wilby (2012) discuss the lack of potential of RCMs to increase the skill of climate predictions at the regional scale.

I also would value your response to summarize how you conclude we should assess the skill of multi-decadal climate predictions of changes in climate statistics.

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

In your answer to 1 (24 - 06 12:32) you state that unless models have proven skill in predicting changes in climate statistics on multi-decadal timescales, they should not be used for projections or predictions.

I agree that the ambition to make (regional) climate predictions even at decadal or longer time scales can not be supported by the current apparent feasibility, given the studies that demonstrate the lack of predictive skill.

The mechanics of the models produce regional scale results, but, until the multi-decadal regional predictions of changes in climate statistics can be shown to be skilful, the added spatial resolution provides an erroneous illusion of skill.

The notion that a tool — an RCM — may possess shortcomings in its predictive skill, but simultaneously prove to be a valuable tool to support narratives that are relevant to policy making and spatial planning can in fact be extended to highlighting the difference between «climate predictions» and «climate scenarios».

This questioning of the CO2 - based climate models has recently come to the forefront in recognition that the models and climate modelers appear to have literally no skill in climate predictions, meaning that the models are in need of major revisions.

Recent improvements in forecast skill of the climate system by dynamical climate models could lead to improvements in seasonal streamflow predictions.

This study evaluates the hydrologic prediction skill of a dynamical climate model - driven hydrologic prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System prediction skill of a dynamical climate model - driven hydrologic prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Prediction System (CanSIPS).

In a century, we probably will be able to make quantitative climate predictions with some skill.

A REASONABLE PROPOSITION The less - strong consensus of AMS members regarding climate - change is induced mainly by the relatively weak mathematical skillset of AMS members, in combination with a (legitimate) apprehension among AMS members that increasing computer power is eroding the economic value of human meteorological prediction skills.

This new prediction system shows the multi-year predictive skills of drought and wildfire conditions beyond the typical timescale of seasonal climate forecast models.

There is currently less skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.

Identify new sources of predictive skill and improve predictions of weather, water, and climate through observations, understanding, and modeling of physical processes and phenomena of the coupled Earth system.

If all ring growth influences can be correlated to markers systematically and predictably to the point that an investigator can decipher the full climate history, drought, flood, predation, infestation, sunlight, wind, average temperature and range of temperature extremes, then they can demonstrate that skill with blinds and predictions.

Advise US CLIVAR on research priorities, gaps, and milestones to advance ocean and climate predictions and projections through improved evaluation, and better quantification and communication of skill and uncertainty.

We examined the potential skill of decadal predictions using the newly developed Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate modelClimate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate modelclimate model (GCM).