Sentences with phrase «climate scenario development»

The purpose of this chapter is to assess the current state of climate scenario development.

A treatment of climate scenario development, in this specific sense, has been largely absent in the earlier IPCC Assessment Reports.

The remainder of this section assesses four aspects of climate scenario development that originate from this concern about adequately representing uncertainty:

These documents, while serving a useful purpose in providing guidelines for scenario use, did not fully address the science of climate scenario development.

For example, distinctions can be made between scenario needs for research in climate scenario development and in the methods of conducting impact assessment (e.g., Woo, 1992; Mearns et al., 1997) and scenario needs for direct application in policy relevant impact and integrated assessments (e.g., Carter et al., 1996a; Smith et al., 1996; Hulme and Jenkins, 1998).

Not exact matches

Ben ten Brink, researcher at the Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL): «This scenario is conceivable for regions that face a combination of impactful developments, such as strong population growth, poverty, climate change, a weak economic system and a feeble government.

Lloyd, S. J., R. S. Kovats, and Z. Chalabi, 2011: Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutClimate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutclimate scenarios on child undernutrition.

Efforts to reform the single - sector approach to marine spatial management should incorporate expected climate - induced changes in temperature, oxygenation, pH, and POC flux to the seabed in the development of regional and international management scenarios.

A new framework for climate scenarios research brings an integrated view of economics, demography, and greenhouse gas emissions to the development of emissions scenarios that underlie climate models.

Climate science says, «this is a range given our inability to completely predict massive human and insitutional actions and the availability and development of technology, so here are some scenarios — if the conditions are X0, we see X1 as a likely outcome.

Again more sobering is «Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC / HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins» — a mouthful - titled publication in Climate Dynamics from 2012 that (indeed) uses the Hadley Centre climate model to conclude that droughts in the Amazon basin could increase rather dramatclimate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC / HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins» — a mouthful - titled publication in Climate Dynamics from 2012 that (indeed) uses the Hadley Centre climate model to conclude that droughts in the Amazon basin could increase rather dramatclimate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins» — a mouthful - titled publication in Climate Dynamics from 2012 that (indeed) uses the Hadley Centre climate model to conclude that droughts in the Amazon basin could increase rather dramatClimate Dynamics from 2012 that (indeed) uses the Hadley Centre climate model to conclude that droughts in the Amazon basin could increase rather dramatclimate model to conclude that droughts in the Amazon basin could increase rather dramatically.

The new research involved linking a series of computer models, which covered crop production, economic development, trade and climate change, to consider a range of scenarios.

In a Sustainable Development Scenario, in which the world gets on track to attain its climate, air quality and energy access goals, the balance of offshore activity shifts, but the overall level remains substantial.

The report's worst - case scenario, where little concrete climate and development action is taken, projects that up to 143 million people — around 2.8 % of the population of these three regions — could move internally across the three regions due to climate change by 2050.

The report considers three potential climate and development scenarios, each of which makes projections for the additional internal migrations likely to occur from climate change.

Lloyd, S. J., R. S. Kovats, and Z. Chalabi, 2011: Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutClimate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutclimate scenarios on child undernutrition.

«Plausible» internal climate migration scenarios by 2050 across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America under three scenarios: the «pessimistic (Reference)» scenario (yellow), the «more inclusive development» scenario (blue) and the «more climate - friendly» scenario (green).

Scenarios devised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change don't just involve different estimations of climate sensitivity, they involve different projections of the spread of renewable energy and efficiency, the development of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), the rate of deforestation, and all sorts of other social, political, and technological Climate Change don't just involve different estimations of climate sensitivity, they involve different projections of the spread of renewable energy and efficiency, the development of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), the rate of deforestation, and all sorts of other social, political, and technological climate sensitivity, they involve different projections of the spread of renewable energy and efficiency, the development of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), the rate of deforestation, and all sorts of other social, political, and technological trends.

Carbon Tracker believes that fossil fuel management are overly focused on demand and price scenarios that assume business as usual and so there may be a risk assessment «gap» between a management's view of the future and that which would result from action on climate change, technology developments and changing economic assumptions.

The guidebook aims to empower project managers and decision makers to engage in discussions on climate - scenario development, including involvement in science - based decisions on the availability, applicability, and robustness of various climate - scenario approaches.

It suggests three major changes: 1) project and policy preparation need to reflect higher risks, where vulnerability assessments and greater use of climate scenario modelling are combined with a better understanding of interconnections between smallholder farming and wider landscapes; 2) this deeper appreciation of interconnected risks should drive a major scaling up of successful «multiple - benefit» approaches to sustainable agricultural intensification by smallholder farmers; 3) climate change and fiscal austerity are reshaping the architecture of public international development finance.

However, the projected development beyond 2020 is only compatible with the IEA alternative policy scenario in which coal production is constrained by climate policy measures while the IEA reference scenario assumes further increasing coal consumption (and production) until at least 2030.

It is for this reason that the scenario framework distinguishes between «pathways,» which describe one component (such as RCPs or SSPs) of integrated scenarios, and «scenarios» themselves, which combine pathways with other information such as emissions, climate projections and policy assumptions to produce integrated descriptions of future climate and human system development.

This article is part of the Special Issue on «A Framework for the Development of New Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Research» edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos.

Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncerClimate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncerclimate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncerclimate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Step one requires an analysis of the baseline scenario: What is the climate impact of your product development or usage?

In the paper I examine the relative role of human - caused climate change and development for future damages under a wide range of scenarios.

The scenarios could be based on the assumption, for example, that forests will be highly protected from development, or that the effects of climate change will be mitigated, he said.

• The readiness of the nation to predict and avoid public and occupational health problems caused by heat waves and severe storms • Characterization and quantification of relationships between climate variability, health outcomes, and the main determinants of vulnerability within and between populations • Development of reliable methods to connect climate - related changes in food systems and water supplies to health under different conditions • Prediction of future risks in response to climate change scenarios and of reductions in the baseline level of morbidity, mortality, or vulnerability • Identification of the available resources, limitations of, and potential actions by the current U.S. health care system to prevent, prepare for, and respond to climate - related health hazards and to build adaptive capacity among vulnerable segments of the U.S. population

The paper, «Energy, Development and Climate Change: Striking a Balance», examines the energy scenario — availability, access, influence of markets and government policies — in rural India, especially in the areas where WOTR has been working.

His industry experience includes leadership roles in strategy development and scenario planning, alliance management, and energy trading, with a background in alternative energy, climate policy, global refining & marketing, and logistics.

The development of climate scenarios for Morocco according to IPCC methodology reveals the following results:...

As such, the IEA's new Sustainable Development Scenario, which presents an integrated approach to achieving the main energy - related SDG targets on climate change, air quality and access to modern energy, will add a water dimension to this analysis this year.

The main purpose of the first phase (development of the RCPs) is to provide information on possible development trajectories for the main forcing agents of climate change, consistent with current scenario literature allowing subsequent analysis by both Climate models (CMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).1 Climate modelers will use the time series of future concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and land - use change from the four RCPs in order to conduct new climate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallelclimate change, consistent with current scenario literature allowing subsequent analysis by both Climate models (CMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).1 Climate modelers will use the time series of future concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and land - use change from the four RCPs in order to conduct new climate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallelClimate models (CMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).1 Climate modelers will use the time series of future concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and land - use change from the four RCPs in order to conduct new climate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallelClimate modelers will use the time series of future concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and land - use change from the four RCPs in order to conduct new climate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallelclimate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallelclimate scenarios as part of the parallel phase.

The DDC also links to relevant data sets and information held outside the DDC, such as outputs produced from the new community - led process of scenario development to support climate change research.

This requires further integration of information for scenario development across the different disciplines involved in climate research.

His current research focuses on the role of technology in addressing climate change, scenario analysis, and integrated assessment model development.

A parallel development phase with climate model runs and development of new socio - economic scenarios.

One of the most exciting outcomes from Ensembles is the development of a climate mitigation scenario and its analysis by a variety of state - of - the - art climate models, many of which include carbon cycle feedbacks.

Posted in Advocacy, Development and Climate Change, Disaster and Emergency, Environment, Glaciers, Governance, Green House Gas Emissions, Information and Communication, International Agencies, Lessons, News, Pollution, Population, UNFCCC, Urbanization Comments Off on Last year's greenhouse gas emissions topple worst - case scenario Tags: Climate change, Developing country, Energy, Environment, Greenhouse gas, Impacts and Indicators, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Sustainable Development and Climate Change, Disaster and Emergency, Environment, Glaciers, Governance, Green House Gas Emissions, Information and Communication, International Agencies, Lessons, News, Pollution, Population, UNFCCC, Urbanization Comments Off on Last year's greenhouse gas emissions topple worst - case scenario Tags: Climate change, Developing country, Energy, Environment, Greenhouse gas, Impacts and Indicators, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Sustainable developmentdevelopment

The development of the RCPs in the first phase thus allows climate modelers to proceed with experiments in parallel to the development of emission and socio - economic scenarios, expediting the overall scenario development process (Moss et al. 2010).

Rather, we propose the possible development of a «warm LIA» climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions.

Climate change and energy policy with focus on energy technology policy assessment, energy supply policy assessment, renewable energy development and energy conservation, including energy and emission scenarios, assessment on energy and fuel tax, research on China's potential to achieve its energy targets and development of the Integrated Policy Assessment models.

Currently, ICPAC runs WRF model for medium range weather forecasts, PRECIS model for climate chnage and scenario development; and is in the process of setting up a Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for downscaling seasonal forecasts.

A number of statistical downscaling techniques (see Section 13.4 and Chapter 10, Section 10.6, for definition) used in scenario development employ Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) reanalysis data products as a source of upper air climate data (Kalnay et al., 1996).

Such analyses lead to understanding how different climate scenarios will affect the business — enabling the incorporation of scientific due diligence into GHG reduction goal development, business continuity planning and R&D strategies.

strategic planning related to development pathways, for example scenario and visioning exercises with urban governments that include climate responses (mainstreaming responses in sectoral and regional planning);

Climate projections are distinguished from a href = «c.html #climate - predictions» > climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncerClimate projections are distinguished from a href = «c.html #climate - predictions» > climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncerclimate - predictions» > climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncerclimate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncerclimate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

It is widely accepted that there are significant overlaps between promoting good development (even in a business - as - usual scenario) and building climate resilience.

Assumptions and uncertainties associated with climate scenarios (Randall et al., 2007) are not considered here, other than to identify the greenhouse gas emission trends or socio - economic development pathways (e.g., SRES, Naki?enovi?