Sentences with phrase «climate scenario simulations»

The new climate scenario simulations were carried out on DKRZ's supercomputer and occupied one quarter of its total computing capacity over a period of two years.

Not exact matches

In the new study, McGuire and his colleagues used simulations to study changes in permafrost and carbon storage in the northern permafrost region from 2010 to 2299 using two climate change scenarios: One with low carbon dioxide emissions and one with high carbon dioxide emissions.

To reach these conclusions, the researchers used simulations from five state - of - the - art climate models to investigate how the characteristics of ARs may change under future climate change scenarios.

Then they plugged that into simulations that took into account climate models and two different carbon emissions scenarios identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate models and two different carbon emissions scenarios identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change.

However, comparing the results of the climate simulations for the most recent interglacial with scenario calculations for the future reveals substantial differences: thanks to the more intense solar radiation, back then the air temperatures at higher latitudes were also a few degrees higher than at present.

The Review is a super refined weekly web publication curated by subject matter experts from Yale who summarize important research articles from leading natural and social science journals with the hope that people can make more informed decisions using latest research results.The Review launched this week and covers a wide range of topics, like this brief about climate change and biodiversity («Biodiversity Left Behind in Climate Change Scenarios»): They find that simply using the traditional classification of a species in climate change simulations can underestimate the true scale of biodiversitclimate change and biodiversity («Biodiversity Left Behind in Climate Change Scenarios»): They find that simply using the traditional classification of a species in climate change simulations can underestimate the true scale of biodiversitClimate Change Scenarios»): They find that simply using the traditional classification of a species in climate change simulations can underestimate the true scale of biodiversitclimate change simulations can underestimate the true scale of biodiversity loss.

«The burned simulations are based on three different climate and wildfire scenarios, and we also used three different erosion models,» said Sankey.

The researchers» forecasts are based on the AWI's BRIOS (Bremerhaven Regional Ice - Ocean Simulations) model, a coupled ice - ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.

Simulations of different climate scenarios suggest that by midcentury some of the prime wine regions

To investigate cloud — climate feedbacks in iRAM, the authors ran several global warming scenarios with boundary conditions appropriate for late twenty - first - century conditions (specifically, warming signals based on IPCC AR4 SRES A1B simulations).

Effects of climate change on US crop production: simulation results using two different GCM scenarios.

It is also equipped with phytotrons and greenhouses that enable the simulation of various climate scenarios, which helps researchers and scientists examine and predict the impacts of climate change on plant growth.

A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.

[Response: I wasn't part of the group that made the decisions on what scenarios to use, but it is indeed true that running simulations of scenarios is a great drag on the climate science community, so there is every reason to try to focus on the ones that will be most informative.

Zhang, X. D., and J. E. Walsh (2006), Toward a seasonally ice - covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations, J Climate, 19 (9), 1730 - 1747.

In the particular simulation shown above, the frequency of the strongest (category 5) hurricanes roughly triples in the anthropogenic climate change scenario relative to the control.

Projections for the these variables are given for different model simulations of climate scenarios.

Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.

Also referred to as synthetic scenarios (IPCC, 1994), they are commonly applied to study the sensitivity of an exposure unit to a wide range of variations in climate, often according to a qualitative interpretation of projections of future regional climate from climate model simulations (guided sensitivity analysis, see IPCC - TGCIA, 1999).

Close agreement of observed temperature change with simulations for the most realistic climate forcing (scenario B) is accidental, given the large unforced variability in both model and real world.

C - ROADS C - ROADS is an award - winning computer simulation that helps people understand the long - term climate impacts of policy scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

A recent meta - analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722 crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on cropClimate Change, by Challinor et al. (2014) examines 1,722 crop model simulations, run using global climate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on cropclimate model output under several emissions scenarios, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and adaptation on cropclimate change and adaptation on crop yield.

Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for u, it remains almost time - invariant for a wide range of twenty - first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century.

In general, diversity shifts towards the coast and northwards, and the degree depends on the dispersal assumptions, emission scenarios, and the sensitivity of climate simulations.

2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitatioClimate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitatioclimate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitation.12, 2

Before using scenarios or climate simulation results, it is important to make sure you have formulated specific questions you want to address, and to investigate whether you can do that using the results of existing analyses, rather than performing your own.

As reported by other flora wide studies [20]--[21], our projections of range size change vary greatly based on future climate simulations, emission levels, and dispersal scenarios.

As in these studies, model projections depend greatly on future climate simulations, emission levels, and dispersal scenarios.

The planning tool SUDPLAN makes information available for the period 1961 - 2100, from a number of climate scenarios scaled down across Europe, complete with hydrological simulations and results from an air pollution model.

A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle — upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios.

The models used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's «A1B» mid-range projected emission scenarios for ozone and aerosol precursors, independently calculated the resulting composition change, and then performed transient simulations to 2050 examining the response to projected changes in the short - lived species and to changes in both long - lived and short - lived species together.

«This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon - cycle feedbacks for the climate - change projections.

The projections can use several different climate scenarios to run the same future simulation.

For their future climate projections, Gillett et al. use five - member ensembles of scenario simulations from 2006 — 2100 with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios.

The first simulation is an 1860 pre-industrial conditions 500 - year control run and the second is the SRESA1B, which is a «business as usual» scenario with CO2 levels stabilizing at 720 ppmv at the close of the 21st century [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001].

Research report: Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate: Illustrative global simulation scenarios

Climate projection — A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate Climate projection — A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate climate models.

Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

Estimates from proxy data1 (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800 - 1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data in blue for 1880 - 2009,2 and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012.3 The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100.4 These scenarios are not based on climate model simulations, but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other kinds of scientific studies.

In my experience this is certainly the case if you talk about the simulations as predictions rather than projections — the climate models are not predicting what the weather will be on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the climate based on emission scenarios and initial conditions.

Climate simulations using the IS92a and A2 and B2 SRES scenarios (Meier et al., 2004; Räisänen et al., 2004) reinforce existing trends in storminess.

Research addressing this question relies on global climate model simulations based on a range of anticipated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios.

We make use of a 40 - member ensemble of climate change simulations under historical and RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenarios for the period 1920 — 2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1; Hurrell et al. 2013).

He used simulations that depict a middle - of - the - road climate change scenario, meaning the range of warming by the end of this century is 1.0 °C to 2.6 °C above a 1986 to 2005 baseline.

Virtually all studies use a hydrological model driven by scenarios based on climate model simulations, with a number of them using SRES - based scenarios (e.g., Hayhoe et al., 2004; Zierl and Bugmann, 2005; Kay et al., 2006a).

Put another way, these billion - dollar, taxpayer - funded super-computer model simulations have performed atrociously, and are entirely worthless at predicting future climate scenarios.

Solution: Until climate models are verified as being capable of somewhat accurate forecasts (predictions, scenarios, etc.), policymakers and taxpayers should completely ignore any climate simulation output that is a result of today's computer models.

Baseline (i.e., mean 1971 — 1999) global varies between 461 Pg C and 998 Pg C, and increases with ΔMLT for all vegetation models under all 110 climate and CO2 increase scenarios (Fig. 1)(see Materials and Methods and SI Text for details of simulations).

Given the existence of many other climate models, one of the most important tests was the comparison of C - ROADS output to the output of disaggregated simulations from the SRES database (e.g., MAGICC) given a range of emissions input scenarios.

Drew Jones of Climate Interactive presents scenarios from the C - ROADS simulation and explores how far these contributions get us, and what more is needed to keep warming to within 2 ° Celsius (3.6 °F) of temperature change above pre-industrial levels.