And «scientists,» in this case, apparently include only those on the low end
of climate sensitivity estimates, rather than the more likely to be accurate consensus range.
The scientists then repeated the energy budget study approaches incorporating what they learned about the various forcing efficiencies, and found that the
previous climate sensitivity estimates were indeed biased low.
Lewis and Curry arrive at their lower equilibrium
climate sensitivity estimate by using updated compilations of the earth's observed temperature change, oceanic heat uptake, and the magnitude of human emissions, some of which should cause warming (e.g., greenhouse gases), while the others should cool (e.g., sulfate aerosols).
In the report, they find reasons to dismiss the many studies and varying approaches that arrive at
higher climate sensitivity estimates, and fail to discuss the shortcomings of the lower sensitivity studies that they prefer.
The results open the possibility that
recent climate sensitivity estimates from global observations and [intermediate complexity models] are systematically considerably lower or higher than the truth, since they are typically based on the same realization of climate variability.»
According to Lewis, writing yesterday on Curry's blog, the new paper «addresses a range of concerns that have been raised
about climate sensitivity estimates» like those in their 2015 paper.
IPCC makes all sorts of calculations on the deleterious effects of NOT halting CO2 emissions, based on the
same climate sensitivity estimate and a bunch of model «scenarios» on CO2 increase.
You are correct that there has been very little change in the
overall climate sensitivity estimates, but sometimes progress is made in terms of increased certainty rather than overturned earlier findings.
Phrases with «climate sensitivity estimates»