Sentences with phrase «climate sensitivity range»

In every case we arrive at this same climate sensitivity range of 2 to 4.5 °C, and the most likely value is 3 °C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

Curry's evidence to support that assertion boiled down to arguing of a supposed «lack of warming since 1998», discrepancies between models and observations during that time, a lower climate sensitivity range in the 2014 than the 2007 IPCC report, and the fact that Antarctic sea ice extent has increased.

Most GCM equilibrium climate sensitivities range between 2 and 4.5 °C (average 3.2 °C in GCMs used in IPCC AR5).

Pingback: Why doesn't the AR5 SOD's climate sensitivity range reflect its new aerosol estimates?

The most - quoted climate sensitivity range (IPCC 4AR) suggests a median temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration of 3 degrees Celsius — and a 66 percent probability range warming under CO2 - doubling will be somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees.

The IPCC gets its 2 - 4.5 C climate sensitivity range from Table 8.2 of the AR4, which lists 19 climate model - derived equilibrium sensitivity estimates that have a mean of 3.2 C and a standard deviation of 0.7 C.

Using a much wider range of evidence, the IPCC puts the likely climate sensitivity range to a doubling of CO2 at 2 to 4.5 °C with a most likely value of 3 °C.

They just say that these studies don't tightly constrain the possible climate sensitivity range, and past climate states are different than current and future climate states, so «little weight can be put on the palaeoclimate estimates.»

In short, there's absolutely no reason to believe the IPCC's equilibrium climate sensitivity range of 2 to 4.5 °C for doubled CO2 is incorrect.

As documented at And Then There's Physics, when using data up to 1995, the method yields an estimated climate sensitivity range of 2.0 — 3.6 °C, but incorporating an additional 6 years of data reduces the estimate approximately 33 percent, to 1.2 — 2.2 °C.

And now, work on clouds will narrow the climate sensitivity range.

You confuse the IPCC climate sensitivity range (1.5 - 4.5 C) with the estimates of temperatures in 2100 (1.4 to 5.8 C).

The performance of models using a climate sensitivity range of from 1.0 to 5.0 is essentially equal in hindcasting.

Quick summary of climate updates: global heat, climate sensitivity range & Antarctic sea level rise contributions...

I note that this estimate is smack dag in the middle of the IPCC's climate sensitivity range of 1.5 - 4.5 degrees Celsius.

To the extent that such models don't agree with observations of aerosols as a predictor, BC17 methodology (assuming I understand it) would underweight that model's contribution to the high end of the climate sensitivity range.

The BEST team also found that the observed warming is consistent with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.1 ± 0.3 °C for CO2 doubling, in line with the IPCC climate sensitivity range, and demonstrates once again that contrary to the persistent claims of Richard Lindzen, the Earth has warmed as much as we expect given a relatively high climate sensitivity.

Note that this is a very rough estimate based on the Shakun and Clark results, but is within the IPCC climate sensitivity range.

«Our study suggests that the climate sensitivity range should be shifted upwards,» says Tan.