This allowed them to calculate the amount of permafrost that would be lost under proposed
climate stabilisation targets.
Not exact matches
Last year, with the IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 we were happily surprised to see that the IEA still takes the 450 ppm CO2
stabilisation scenario seriously — indeed corresponding with the 2 degrees
climate target that world leaders have agreed on multiple times.
That would likely mean that also the official UN
climate goal of limiting the average world temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees Celsius — a
target linked to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent
stabilisation scenarios (practically ambitious, theoretically weak)-- will eventually lead to many meters of global sea level rise.
«Beyond Kyoto: Energy Dynamics and
Climate Stabilisation» suggests how negotiators might address this longer - term objective on a global basis, with due regard for the uncertainties and cost: aiming at low GHG concentrations, but making achievement of these
targets conditional on actual costs.
Many don't get this — but it goes for both the temperature
targets of ≤ 2 degrees (UN, G8, G21) and ≤ 1.5 degrees (wiser people) and the internationally accepted maximum GHG concentration level of 450 ppm — and for the CO2
stabilisation concentration level of 350 ppm (Hansen and many other
climate scientists): if we know «2» is the right answer, we're not that clever when we fail to comprehend 1 +1 is the logical route to getting there.]
A more general review of the literature on
climate change mitigation is found in the WGIII AR4 Chapter 3 (Fisher et al., 2007) Sections 3.3.5 (on long - term
stabilisation scenarios), 3.5.2 and 3.5.3 (on integrated assessment and risk management) and 3.6 (on linkages between short - term and long - term
targets).
That would likely mean that also the official UN
climate goal of limiting the average world temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees Celsius — a
target linked to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent
stabilisation scenarios (practically ambitious, theoretically weak)... Continue reading →
Findings from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change warn about the consequences of rising CO2 concentrations: «Any CO2
stabilisation target above 450 ppm is associated with a significant probability of triggering a large - scale climatic event.»