Scenario simulations of
future climate states are useful for testing ideas about how the climate system works.
We also find an interesting relationship between the reliability of
present climate states and spread of climate sensitivity.
The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea - ice loss and, in some cases, to the
background climate state.
I doubt that will happen but it's the most
stable climate state by a long shot and the one in which most life on this planet evolved.
Yet results from models, which produce a «realistic»
modern climate state, might be preferable to «unrealistic» models.
Moreover, the
starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors.
He suggested that a slight change of conditions might set off a self - sustaining shift
between climate states.
One is that climate sensitivity, at least in some climate models, is not fixed but rather depends on the
background climate state, increasing rapidly with temperature.
Worst of all, a 4 C world may not be a
stable climate state — climate feedbacks at 4 C may make a higher equilibrium point inevitable.
Our security system is developed to function within the realms of a
balanced climate state — a situation with an equilibrium energy budget.
Small changes push the system past a threshold at which stage a
new climate state emerges as tremendous energies cascade through powerful sub-systems — and this is indeed a quite widely accepted climate science paradigm.
However, under
different climate states during the past few millennia the water flux was greater than now; this leads to great uncertainty in estimations of how much of the current water flow is renewable versus fossil.
At the scale of the 20th century — we can see 4 shifts in the trajectory of surface temperature associated with shifts in
climate state at multi-decadal periods.
Combining information from four RCM simulations, Christensen et al. (2001) and Rummukainen et al. (2003) demonstrate that it is feasible to explore not only uncertainties related to projections in the
mean climate state, but also for higher - order statistics.
Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is 6 °C for doubled CO2 for the range
of climate states between glacial conditions and ice - free Antarctica.»
These same slow feedbacks are estimated to amplify climate sensitivity by almost a factor of two for the climate change between the Holocene and the nearly ice -
free climate state that existed 35 million years ago [54].
This problem is one reason — and only one — for why trying to estimate
climate states over long periods, from tree ring widths, is completely unreliable.
Changes in trajectories of global surface temperature occur at the same times as shifts in
Pacific climate state.
'' The Guardian — 20 August 2016: Green Party candidate Jill Stein calls
for climate state of emergency «Presidential hopeful points to California wildfires and Louisiana flooding in push for Green New Deal to address both environment and economy»
The US Southwest, already by far the hottest and most arid region of the country, is set to enter what experts are diplomatically calling a «
drier climate state.»
The general pattern of sea surface temperature during these hiatus periods is very reminiscent of a La Niña -
like climate state.
Average gas consumption per residential customer for several
cold climate states and the CEDA territory
Since no values based on the
recent climate state appear to have been computed for ozone forcing in the NINT version, it is impossible to be sure what values should be used for its recent ERF and iRF ozone forcing.
«The differences we find between the two
climate states also suggest that if we shift the system too much, we could enter a different system, which could lead to greater fluctuations.
«Although the climate system already was primed for the switch, we argue that these changes initiated the shift from a largely glacial to a largely
interglacial climate state.
Phrases with «climate state»