For one of many good demonstrations that the recent slowdown (which, importantly, is «slow» only relative to immediately preceding «fast» warming — that's a hint for you) in no way is evidence against the continuing long term trend, see
climate statistician Tamino's recent post «Slowdown Skeptic,» and «It's the Trend, Stupid,» and «Is Earth's Temperature About to Soar?»
â $ œAfter reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet.â $ —
Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review. Â
Or are you all focused on whether Nate Silver's choice of Roger Pielke Jr. as
a climate statistician makes any sense?
«Perhaps Pachauri was so hesitant to look into the matter because he was trying to protect the research projects being conducted by his own institute,» says
climate statistician Storch.
Not exact matches
Statisticians can analyze these
climate models along with direct observations to learn about Earth's
climate.
Climate Central scientists and
statisticians made these calculations based on an average of global temperature data reported by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Instead, it cited a report commissioned by Congressman Barton from three
statisticians with no background in
climate science, who quibbled with aspects of Mann's methodology.
There are
statisticians, like McIntyre, who have gotten interested in the
climate change issue.
Kennett, working with Norbert Marwan, climatologist and
statistician, Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research, Germany, looked at climate records for central Mexico gleaned from a stalagmite collected from Juxtlahuaca Cave in the state of Gu
Climate Impact Research, Germany, looked at
climate records for central Mexico gleaned from a stalagmite collected from Juxtlahuaca Cave in the state of Gu
climate records for central Mexico gleaned from a stalagmite collected from Juxtlahuaca Cave in the state of Guerrero.
While the Strengthening Forensic Science panel included two
statisticians, the National Academies» America's
Climate Choices panels did not include a single
statistician, despite the many data, data analysis, uncertainty, and decisionmaking issues.
I don't think there is a single
statistician in the world who would argue that flat priors are a good way to represent lack of knowledge, or who would say that they should be used as a convention (except for location parameters... but
climate sensitivity isn't a location parameter).
Although WIRES Comp Stat itself is completely unrelated to
climate studies, the original trio of editors — Wegman, Said and Rice University
statistician David Scott — had collaborated earlier on the highly controversial congressional report on paleoclimatology known as the Wegman Report.
We welcome applications from potential graduate students and postdocs with strong computational skills who want to join our group's eclectic mix of
statisticians, geophysicists,
climate modelers, and policy scholars.
I believe that
statisticians can contribute more to
climate sciences in better description of the uncertainties, in addition to better calibration of statistical models.
The article by Rasmus includes: -LSB-...]
statisticians in
climate research is to bring in their experience with «infographics» and ways to convey complex messages through illustrations.
Has the
climate science community increased involvement of
statisticians in recent years, perhaps including them in the statistical work or at least including them in peer review of
climate science papers prior to publication?
In a European COST - action initiative named «VALUE», spearheaded by Douglas Maraun, the intention is to include
statisticians for improved
climate modelling.
Finally, Montford asks the question as to why the scientists and the IPCC promoted the hockey stick at such a high confidence level so prematurely, and why such extraordinary efforts were made to defend it when it arguably isn't a critical piece of the
climate puzzle, rather than to learn from outside
statisticians and do a credible error analysis on the data and the inferences.
Being a
climate (or Polar bear) scientist does not make you an expert
statistician, forecaster, lawyer, vet, etc... just because your field utilizes those fields.
This is a very generalized beginning to the disucssion and I welcome corrections from:
statisticians, physicists and mathematicians who work in
climate science as it specifically pertains to the work they do using Bayes statistics, or related methods that are of importance.
And adaptation to changing
climate, particularly wider extremes (what the
statisticians call variances), is going to require serious amounts of work being done.
The fact is, many scientists on both sides of the debate are not
climate scientists, they are earth scientists, astrophysicists, palaeontologists, economists,
statisticians, and here in Australia, one of the most vocal pro-AGW commentators is a professor of psychology.
# 57, RE small numbers, I'm no
climate scientist, but I do know
statisticians have methods, such as Chi - square and log - linear analysis (based on odds ratios), that are quite successful on data sets with small numbers of observations.
Encourage a constructive collaboration between
climate researchers and the climateaudit
statisticians.
I have seen numerous appeals here for
climate researchers to make efforts to include
statisticians in their studies.
A. 12, to which can be added the note that in their rejolinder, they said «We believe such conversations to be paradigmatic of the great value of collaboration between
climate scientists and
statisticians and hope they can serve as a template for future work between the two camps.
One student in the class last Tues commented that collaboration between
statisticians and
climate researchers would be a good thing, I said yes and then a number of voices chimed in and said «but not that group of
statisticians».
Richard Mackey,
Statistician, author of papers about the role of the Sun in the Earth's
climate dynamics and biographer of Rhodes W. Fairbridge, Canberra, Australia
In December in Milan at the ninth Conference of the Parties to the U. N. Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Pachauri sent out a press release attacking the motives and affiliations of Ian Castles, former chief
statistician of the Australian government, and David Henderson, former chief economist of the OECD.
«Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), compared Bjrn Lomborg, Danish
statistician and author of The Skeptical Environmentalist, to Adolf Hitler in an interview with Jyllandsposten, a leading Danish newspaper (Apr. 21).»
People who've been following the debate about global warming closely will be aware that the economic modelling used in projections of future
climate change by the IPCC has been severely criticised by former Australian
Statistician Ian Castles and former OECD chief economist David Henderson.
Wm. Briggs, a Bayesian
statistician with experience in the
Climate field, says he is «happy to help» with these kinds of issues:
The sooner the
climate scientists start walking past the
statisticians frat room and start hanging out with the nerds in the lab of the applied math dept. and share a beer with the fluid mechanics specialists in the aeronautical engineering dept. the sooner we'll get some real progress with
climate science.
NZ
Climate Science Coalition
statisticians have uncovered evidence of scarcely believable deception from our National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA).
And the paper that Tamino (a
statistician) recently wrote with some
climate scientists.
Computer modellers from other fields to check GCMs are being done right,
statisticians to check that the
climate scientists sums are being done right, physicists to check the physics, mathematicians to check the maths, technicians to check the equipment being used to make observations that constitute the data.
As Wegman found, the top guns in
climate science relied heavily on statistics, but didn't rely heavily (or at all) on expert
statisticians.
They also don't blame the
climate scientists for any lack of «good» statistics in
climate change science, quite correctly, they blame the professional
statisticians.
I also found myself working with high powered
statisticians who had deep doubts about the way non-statistically trained scientist used statistics (not just in
climate science).
Not only that, but some aspects (e.g. the statistical process applied in MBH) would be best analysed by an independent
statistician who has little or no knowledge of
climate science, because they are most likely to spot a lack of rigour or bias in the process, because they will view the data with a more independent eye.
But according to Dr. David Evans, a
statistician and
climate policy expert in Australia, it is fuel loads of combustible trees that pose the much greater risk.
So, that makes him a less - credible authority on
climate than an engineer, an economist or a
statistician — how?
«Richard L. Smith of The University of North Carolina presented a
statistician's viewpoint during a May 11 congressional briefing, titled «
Climate Science: Key Questions and Answers.»
RE: # 17 — The «public» includes non
climate science scientists and engineerings, as well as math heads, econometricians,
statisticians and other analytical types.
Then read professional
statistician (multiple peer reviewed publications on
climate change) Tamino's explanation of a new paper supporting the existence of sea level rise acceleration so much that by the year 2100 sea level would be.654 meters higher than in 2005, supporting the projections of IPCC AR5's RCP 8.5.
Tamino is a
statistician who has published on
climate change.
And while Briggs» work is respectable, I don't recognize the opinions of a general
statistician who has no publication history in
climate, particularly when the link you posted is all opinion and no statistics.
What do you think of the way «
climate scientists» have abandoned the r2 statistic used by all
statisticians (because it did nt give the results they wanted), and invented their own «RE» statistic?
Most people (
statisticians or not) should look at
climate time series and say «I see lots of up and down noise».
The International Meetings on Statistical Climatology began in 1979, with the goal of bringing together scientists and
statisticians in order to promote good statistical practice in
climate and atmospheric science.