Sentences with phrase «climate tipping points from»

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

Not exact matches

«We had a tipping point in the industry where climate change led to warmer, windier weather that points up the need to innovate to strengthen the coffee industry,» said Rodriguez, his skin sun - kissed from working the fields, a Starbucks cap perched on his salt - and - pepper hair.

As Andre Leu, the current president of the International Federation of Organic Agricultural Movements (IFOAM) noted, «Dec. 1, 2015 will be seen as one of the most important days in history... as the tipping point when the world was saved from catastrophic climate change.»

Professor Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter and one of the authors of the study said: «Irreversible tipping points are one of the biggest risks we face if we carry on changing the climate.

Mathematically, it turns out, the shift from a healthy state to a depressed state resembles other so - called tipping points — moments of critical mass where a system, such as changes to Earth's climate or a social trend — shift rapidly from one state to another.

The findings are relevant to scientists concerned about tipping points resulting from future climate change.

From studies of changes in temperature and sea level over the last million years, we know that the climate system has tipping points.

In a previous paper written in 2014, Howarth painted methane emissions from oil and gas production in dire terms, saying that ignoring fracking - related methane emissions would lead to a climate change tipping point and «global catastrophe» from which there is no return.

The average interglacial cooling trend from the Dome C data is approximately 0.7 degrees C / millennium and represents the next climate change tipping point.

My job, to steal a phrase from a climate scientist I quoted in the tipping points story, is to be «caustically honest» about such murkiness where it's real, and to be similarly probing when someone is trying to manufacture murkiness — as has happened a lot in recent years in the climate fight.

If an increase to, say 4X CO2 were enough to cause an inexorable transition from a Holocene climate to the Cretaceous type, I think any reasonable person would call that a tipping point.

More on Climate Change and the Amazon Amazon Tribe Already Feels the Pinch From Climate Change Amazon Rainforest Near Tipping Point Climate Change to Blame for Brazil's Weather Woes?

While many of his colleagues are (appropriately) quick to point out hype from those aiming to undermine public confidence in climate science, Schmidt has been unafraid also to note that reality on important issues — from tipping points to extreme weather — is not always convenient for greenhouse campaigners.

Just in case you think this is new, review the posts here about the «burning embers» diagram from the 2001 intergovernmental panel report and the realities behind the oversimplified notion of climate tipping points.

Otherwise it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas produced in burning fossil fuels, to a level that prevents the climate system from passing tipping points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity's control.

Other studies of the Amazon climate tipping point The existence of an Amazonian climate tipping point is confirmed by other model studies, including the above - mentioned Climatic Change publication from 2008 — that suggests a large - scale die - back (70 percent) from about 3 degrees onwards, starting in the South of the basin.

«Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change» When trying to position the Amazon tipping point on the scale of the global temperature rise, one of the most - often cited studies is one from the year 2009, performed by a team of researchers of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, led by Chris Jones and published in Nature Geoscience.

This PNAS publication from 2008 also confirms the existence of a climate tipping point for the Amazon rainforest.

Such a dramatic shift in a climate pattern would constitute what climate scientists call a tipping point: a sudden shift from one predictable pattern of weather to another.

«The change of phase from snow and ice to water is the biggest tipping point in the Earth's system and so, although International Polar Year covers a huge range of science, for me the big issue is climate change and the impact that it's having here,» said Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, in a video message from Antarctica.

Technology will advance far enough during that time to make the issue of runaway warming or climate change tipping points from human greenhouse gas emissions moot historical footnotes.

In the Arctic, the tipping points identified in the new report, published on Friday, include: growth in vegetation on tundra, which replaces reflective snow and ice with darker vegetation, thus absorbing more heat; higher releases of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from the tundra as it warms; shifts in snow distribution that warm the ocean, resulting in altered climate patterns as far away as Asia, where the monsoon could be effected; and the collapse of some key Arctic fisheries, with knock - on effects on ocean ecosystems around the globe.»

Benestad also noted a post from climate blogger Tim Lambert, who pointed out an error in the calculation of area weighting (a mixup of radians and degrees) that almost doubled the portion of warming trend attributed by McKitrick to economic factors, despite McKitrick's claim that the correction «hardly changed the results» (hat tip to Frank O'Dwyer).

These tipping points could be ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica melting permanently, global food shortages and widespread crop failures with more extreme weather, rising ocean temperatures and acidity reaching triggering a crash in global coral reef ecosystems, and warming oceans push the release of methane from the sea floor, which could lead to runaway climate change, etc..

Here we are saying that CO2 from man is driving climate change to a tipping point and therefore we are going to use the precautionary principle to say that we must stop emitting Co2.

Drawn by Nichole Hoskin using data from Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois Australian television's Four Corners showed a program on August 4, 2008, entitled «Tipping Point» claiming that the disappearance of summer -LSB-...]

Unfortunately for the Pope, James Hansen and other hysterical climate doomsday soothsayers, the real world empirical evidence clearly shows that the world's climate is self - correcting and not prone to those scary predicted tipping points and runaway disasters from growing atmospheric CO2 levels.

From the Washington Post By Sarah Palin — With the publication of damaging e-mails from a climate research center in Britain, the radical environmental movement appears to face a tipping poFrom the Washington Post By Sarah Palin — With the publication of damaging e-mails from a climate research center in Britain, the radical environmental movement appears to face a tipping pofrom a climate research center in Britain, the radical environmental movement appears to face a tipping point.

The enduring myth of «accelerating» is a leftover from earlier IPCC climate reports and the original AGW hypothesis that speculated greater levels of atmospheric CO2 would generate «runaway» global warming leading to a catastrophic «tipping point» climate change.

That is, they fear that global temperatures will exceed a tipping point that will trigger a release of stored carbon from the biosphere, an event that would cause further rapid climate change.

More substantial changes would be along the lines of «Exploring potential impacts of a 2C world using insights from paleo climate records, modern observations and climate modelling» or «Exploring the potential for tipping points in the climate system before 2C».

As is apparent from Figure 1, the climate system would cross several tipping points and trigger various feedback effects that would render the climate system beyond human control.

The real climate tipping point is right around the corner — the day when a majority of scientists see that Earth weather patterns and climate are ruled by electric and magnetic mechanisms caused by outside forcing from solar, lunar, and cosmic sources.

Nasa's Gavin Schmidt has previously argued that the danger of such a methane release is low, whereas scientists like Prof Tim Lenton from Exeter University who specialises in climate tipping points, says the process would takethousands if not tens of thousands of years, let alone a decade.

Near the shift or tipping points climate is theoretically very sensitive — away from those points not so much.

The HFC phase - down will help slow climate change and sea level rise, as well as prevent the world from reaching irreversible climatic «tipping points.»

[iv] Urgency derives from the nearness of climate tipping points, beyond which climate dynamics will cause rapid changes out of humanity's control.

We don't know much about tipping points, but, as Howarth observes, «'' the world runs a high risk of catastrophic climate change in the period of 15 to 35 years from now.

THE world is on the cusp of a «tipping point» into dangerous climate change, according to new data gathered by scientists measuring methane leaking from the Arctic permafrost and a report presented to the United Nations on Tuesday.

With concerted effort, the United States and China can work with the 111 countries already committed to a phase - down under the Montreal Protocol, to slow climate change and sea level rise, as well as prevent the world from reaching irreversible climatic «tipping points.»

Conclusion # 3: Since Conclusions # 1 and # 2 are derived from the actual empirical science evidence, policymakers at the national, state, and local levels have no rational basis to make large expenditures and impose unnecessary regulations in an attempt to stop what has now become a fact-less, irrational, anti-science belief of human - caused catastrophic global warming and climate change «tipping points.»

Worm greenhouse emissions (primarily methane) from our global ocean sediment buddies could lead to that proverbial tipping point - initiating a runaway global warming and catastrophic climate change scenario.

In recent years Hansen has drawn attention to the danger of passing climate tipping points, producing irreversible climate impacts that would yield a different planet from the one on which civilization developed.»

In a broad sense this arises both from the social uncertainty about whether and when mitigation efforts will be agreed and achieved, as well as from the scientific uncertainty about how the many feedbacks in the Earth system operate, arising from imperfect climate modelling, the role of tipping points [9] and other limits to our understanding of the system.

We should want to be moving away from the point where the climate tips back over into a glacial period.

A tip on the hat to Grist for pointing out an article from Environmental Research Letters from Ken Caldeira and Nathan Myhrvold, on, essentially, how quickly transitioning to clean energy can combat climate change, the inertia inherent in the climate system, and whether anything short of a wholesale rapid transition away from fossil fuels will do the trick.

Picking up on Pete's point in # 123 that he is troubled by not knowing exactly what climate scientists are trying to tell us about where we currently stand in regard to tipping points and todays ABC article on the acceleration of climate change which includes the comment: «But many experts confide privately what they aren't yet ready to announce publicly: Change is accelerating at a dramatic rate» (URL below) I would find it very helpful if someone from Real Climate could tell us the summary message you want to get across to the public regarding tipping points — is it the «alternative version» I set out in # 75 above or is it a modified version of this, if so it would be great if you could post the modified version up here — I would love to hclimate scientists are trying to tell us about where we currently stand in regard to tipping points and todays ABC article on the acceleration of climate change which includes the comment: «But many experts confide privately what they aren't yet ready to announce publicly: Change is accelerating at a dramatic rate» (URL below) I would find it very helpful if someone from Real Climate could tell us the summary message you want to get across to the public regarding tipping points — is it the «alternative version» I set out in # 75 above or is it a modified version of this, if so it would be great if you could post the modified version up here — I would love to hclimate change which includes the comment: «But many experts confide privately what they aren't yet ready to announce publicly: Change is accelerating at a dramatic rate» (URL below) I would find it very helpful if someone from Real Climate could tell us the summary message you want to get across to the public regarding tipping points — is it the «alternative version» I set out in # 75 above or is it a modified version of this, if so it would be great if you could post the modified version up here — I would love to hClimate could tell us the summary message you want to get across to the public regarding tipping points — is it the «alternative version» I set out in # 75 above or is it a modified version of this, if so it would be great if you could post the modified version up here — I would love to hear it.

Hansen and Sato (2012), using paleoclimate data rather than models of recent and expected climate change, warn that «goals of limiting human made warming to 2 °C and CO2 to 450 ppm are prescriptions for disaster» because significant tipping points — where significant elements of the climate system move from one discrete state to another — will be crossed.

RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before, methane is an extremely dangerous component to global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting point to frozen methane.A huge increase in the release of methane could happen within the next 50 years.At what point in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a huge methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what point would huge amounts of extra methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the ocean near the Artic methane ice deposits would the methane melt, or at what point in the rise of co2 concentrations in the atmosphere would the methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting point exists.Of course, once that tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of methane outgass from what had been locked stores of methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of stored fossil fuels which have been stored for an eternity as well.And even though methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around in the air it can cause other tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would happen to other tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a huge increase in the melting of the methal hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the huge, albeit temporary, increase in methane over even three or four decades might push other relevent tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick, huge, changes occured in the Earth's climate in the past.See other relevent posts in the past from Realclimate.Climate often does not change slowly, but undergoes huge, quick, changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and tipping the climate to a quick change.Why should the danger from huge potential methane releases be vievwed with any less trepidation?

As is apparent from Figure 3, the climate system would cross several tipping points and trigger various feedback effects that would render the climate system largely beyond human control.