All contributions are well below the 1979 - 2007
climatological mean of 6.7 million square kilometers, and also below all values seen prior to 2007.
It is important to note for context that all 2011 estimates are well below the 1979 — 2007 September
climatological mean of 6.7 million square kilometers.
Not exact matches
To obtain consistent changes over time, the main analysis is actually
of anomalies (departures from the
climatological mean at each site) as these are more robust to changes in data availability.
Normalised RMS error in simulation
of climatological patterns
of monthly precipitation,
mean sea level pressure and surface air temperature.
I am also aware
of how this may well
mean that
climatological models may well be predicting lower global warming change than in actually occuring, i.e. the warming problem is more serious than it appears.
[Response: There are a couple
of issues here — first, the number
of ensemble members for each model is not the same and since each additional ensemble member is not independent (they have basically the same
climatological mean), you have to be very careful with estimating true degrees
of freedom.
It seems pretty clear to me that the Denialists are mounting their final defense; regardless
of the actual
climatological meaning (being little to none)
of an ice - free North Pole, the Denialists are correctly sensing that the unwashed masses are likely to come unglued in the event.
In the case
of the North American ITRDB data used by MBH98, the reference
means were chosen to be the 20th century calibration period
climatological means.
Normalised RMS error in simulation
of climatological patterns
of monthly precipitation,
mean sea level pressure and surface air temperature.
For example, it was determined that common values
of the penetrative solar flux are about 23 W m − 2 at 30 m (the
climatological mean mixed layer depth), and thus a large fraction
of the
climatological mean net air — sea flux
of about 40 W m − 2.
The difference in the
climatological mean June - July - August ocean heat content as measured by the depth
of the 20 °C isotherm (in meters) overlaid with corresponding differences in ocean heat transport vectors (W / m) between two numerical climate models with slightly different bathymetries.
We may have to wait until the summer to read McKitrick's latest, but in the
mean time perhaps Banks» review
of Wegman could be made available, so we can assess this editor's ability to understand the relevant
climatological issues.
NSIDC reported that the 2010 seasonal sea ice maximum was quite late (31 March compared to the
climatological date
of 26 February) and the total maximum ice extent approached the
climatological mean.
If Gavin Schmidt at realclimate doesn't delete your comments outright he'll tell you that he's got no time for people with an unscientific attitude (
meaning skeptics) and points you to his collection
of 800 AGW papers, all building on top
of each other, with Bristlecone pine tree ring data and the
climatological variant
of statistics as the rock - solid foundation.
It should be noted that all estimates are well below the 1979 - 2007
climatological mean value
of 6.7 million square kilometers.
This assessment is based on a subset
of models that most closely reproduce the
climatological mean state and 1979 to 2012 trend
of Arctic sea ice cover.
Although the regions largely coincide with the continents rather than
climatological criteria, the annual
mean temperature averaged over these regions explains 90 %
of the global
mean annual temperature variability in the instrumental record»
The
climatological mean date for the opening
of the shipping route is ~ July 25th.
(A) recent northward shifting
of February sea surface isotherms (°C) in the Mediterranean Sea (broken lines are the one - century
climatological means, solid lines the
means for 1985 — 2006: the 14 °C and the 15 °C «dividers» are highlighted by a thicker tract.
The 15 °C isotherm, whose one - century
climatological mean crosses the Straits
of Sicily, may have moved northward in recent times (Figure 11a).
The process
of model development involves getting the
climatological mean right and trying to improve the representation
of short - term variability such as ENSO and monsoon processes.
So, for example, HadCRU and GISS each provide a
climatological datum
of mean global temperature for a single year and present it as a difference (i.e. an anomaly) from the average
mean global temperature
of a 30 year period.
This
means that when you compare the raw and adjusted stations, differences in elevation and other
climatological factors between the 1218 stations and the 650 stations will swamp any effects
of actual adjustments (e.g. those for station moves, instrument changes, etc.).
When it is warmer than the
climatological average (and therefore a positive temperature anomaly) in a particular location, it is generally also warmer than average over hundreds
of kilometres — corresponding to the
mean synoptic weather pattern — even though the actual temperature may be quite different from location to location.
It's common knowledge among experienced professionals that, outside the English - speaking world, other countries use a great variety
of methods in determining the «
mean monthly temperature,» which is the customary datum used in
climatological work.
The distributions
of temperature and rainfall provided by ensemble simulations (typically 40 - 50 for each forecast) often do not even bound the extreme events and the ensemble
mean is biased towards a
climatological mean and does not capture extreme events.