Sentences with phrase «cloud feedbacks»

We were actually talking cloud feedbacks — not your woodfordimwits school of climate science.

For other time periods and RCPs, these diagnostics will again be used to diagnose the AIE, but removal of climate - induced cloud feedbacks will be required based on the transient 1 % per year CO2 CMIP5 runs.

Cloud feedbacks are at most a fraction of a W / m2 / degree C.

I referenced real science establishing through surface and satellite observation the source of cloud feedbacks.

Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks Dennis L. Hartmann in collaboration with Mark Zelinka Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington PCC Summer.

It is also equally obvious from the data supplied that warm Pacific cloud feedbacks dominated warming in the late 20th century.

I was talking CERES and this century where cloud feedbacks from greenhouse gas warming is at most negligible.

There is not a chance in hell that cloud feedbacks from global warming amounted to an increase of 1.5 W / m2 in the 90's — or anything much at all since.

While cloud changes in ENSO events have been used as an analogue of global warming cloud feedbacks — the patterns of warming and response are different.

JC: the coupled water vapor and cloud feedbacks are uncertain, does nt belong in very likely IMO.

This is particularly true for GCMs in the way they treat water vapor and cloud feedbacks.

Conversely, many emergent constraints on ECS can be understood as encoding properties of shortwave low - cloud feedbacks (Qu et.

Now you might put that down to sulphate / cloud feedbacks — if this was a smoother function.

Tropical Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models: A Further Assessment Using Coupled Simulations, Sun et al, 03/2009; read more here.

Andy Dessler's cloud feedbacks study was essentially ENSO feedback — Amy Clements study of cloud feedbacks was in the first instance PDO feedbacks.

It takes time to explore a new idea, and there aren't that many people working specifically on cloud feedbacks.

His research focuses on the representation of clouds and convective storms in the GISS global climate model and their role in cloud feedbacks on climate change, as well as climate impacts associated with storms.

(Note, however, that to the extent that positive cloud feedbacks on GHG - mediated forcing mediate a reduction in cloud cover, the amplification will substitute some SW effects for LW effects due to the reduced cloud greenhouse warming and increased warming from a lower albedo).

The feedbacks primarily determining that response are related to water vapor, ice and snow reflectivity, and clouds.1 Cloud feedbacks have the largest uncertainty.

It's not looking good for strongly positive WV and cloud feedbacks (as predicted by the IPCC AR4 models)

Very recently, Ringer et al. (2014) and Brient et al. (2015) analyzed the CMIP5 fully coupled ocean — atmosphere models and their corresponding Cess experiments and confirmed again that the Cess experiments provide a good guide to the global cloud feedbacks determined from the coupled simulations, including the intermodel spread.

It's not looking good for strongly positive WV and cloud feedbacks (as predicted by the IPCC AR4 models), BBD.

They get cloud feedbacks wrong by a factor 19 times larger than the entire effect of increased CO2 (Miller 2012).

Ideally we would like to constrain cloud feedbacks in other ways so as to bring these other constraints to bear on the attribution of the observed warming.»

Warming cloud feedbacks — note the large increase in SW forcing — are a small fraction of that at best.

There are — as well — cloud feedbacks anti-correlated with sea surface temperatures that change the energy dynamic of the planet.

the dirty little secret is that there is still no way to test the IPCC climate models for their feedback behavior,... The very fact that the 20 + climate models the IPCC tracks still span just as wide a range of feedbacks as climate models did 20 years ago is evidence by itself that the climate community still can't demonstrate what the real cloud feedbacks in the climate system are....

To justify his calculation of cloud feedbacks Dessler 2010 NEEDS to assume a zero net forcing over this period, and hence no warming.

How may low - cloud radiative properties simulated in the current climate influence low - cloud feedbacks under global warming?

The state of knowledge that we have right now does not exclude the possibility of cloud feedbacks that limit any warming that might occur.

The feedbacks are generally similar between CMIP3 and CMIP5, and the water vapour, lapse rate, and cloud feedbacks are assessed in detail in Chapter 7.

Yeah, they're keeping that a huge secret: Section 8.6.3.2 of AR4 is called «Clouds,» and contains the statement «cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates.»

Moreover, IPCC identified cloud feedbacks as the primary, intermodel structural uncertainty.

In an analysis of global warming cloud feedbacks, Dessler (2010) used short term (i.e., not climate) variations in surface temperature and CERES data to determine that cloud cover was negatively correlated with temperature.

However, the structural uncertain with cloud feedbacks runs far deeper than intermodel variability in estimating climate sensitivity.

ENSO in turn modifies climate — especially through cloud feedbacks.

More to the point, there is no agreement about such basic, rudimentary, fundamental, all - important questions as the sign and size of the cloud feedbacks.

I can remember a time when I was ridiculed @ ClimateAudit, not unanimously though, for suggesting that not only did we not know the magnitude of the water vapor and cloud feedbacks, but that we did not even know the sign.

Cloud variations are obviously an important element on a global scale, but the effects of Arctic ice melting are important locally and also a non-trivial fraction of global albedo feedbacks, which are a contributor to total feedback that is smaller than those from water vapor and probably from cloud feedbacks, but not insignificant.

Could tropical cloud feedbacks, or the coupling to ENSO, amplify the effects of low latitude hydrological responses to high - latitude anomalies in these models?

There are both positive and negative cloud feedbacks.

If the effects of cloud feedbacks are eliminated, this range is reduced to 1.7 - 2.3 C. 2 Many other feedbacks, particularly those involving chemistry and biology, may also be important.

The iris hypothesis and the tropical upper tropospheric water vapor and cirrus cloud feedbacks, while arguably still open to debate, are not by any stretch of the imagination a major driver in global climate feedback.

I note that any reasonable climate change class should highlight appropriate sources of uncertainties (e.g., in future projections of hurricane changes, cloud feedbacks, etc) and I prefer when they open up discussing to students, but I find that Judith carries this further into making up uncertainties based on her gut feeling, interpreting them in ways that make little sense, and most importantly, failing to recognize the errors in flawed sets of reasoning on fundamental topics.

There can be a whole plethora of nulls — «climate sensitivity is less than 3.5 ° K,» «cloud feedbacks are not positive,» etc. — and confirming or rejecting these can accumulate to an understanding that humans are or are not affecting climate.

I'm also interesting in the coupling between hydrological cycle, cloud feedbacks and circulation.

What ARM meant: To unravel the uncertainties in cloud feedbacks it was necessary to obtain simultaneous measurements of a broad range of parameters relative to clouds and their impact on the radiative energy balance.

Water vapour feedbacks are very robust across different models — cloud feedbacks less so of course.

At equilibrium at 2xCO2, Teff could be smaller or larger depending on the SW cloud feedbacks.

Cloud feedbacks may be complicated, but a simple rule of thumb that emerges from that complexity is that high clouds exert a strong greenhouse effect and low clouds don't.