And this time, the team reports online today in Nature,
the cloud observations and the models told the same story.
Not exact matches
Computer
modeling and satellite
observations suggest that these tiny particles can increase storm -
cloud cover over certain regions of the North Pacific by 20 to 50 percent, enough to alter storm tracks in some cases.
Mission leaders were relieved
and eager to begin their studies of
cloud and haze effects, which «constitute the largest uncertainties in our
models of future climate — that's no exaggeration,» says Jens Redemann, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California,
and the principal investigator for
ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds
and their IntEractionS (ORACLES).
Nesvorný
and his colleagues followed particles released in their
model from various types of comets or from asteroids
and compared the particles» fates with
observations of the zodiacal dust
cloud.
To get around the problem, Fasullo
and Trenberth decided to examine how well 16 global climate
models reproduce recent satellite
observations of relative humidity in the tropics
and subtropics, a quantity that is directly related to
cloud formation.
The UM Rosenstiel School researchers used historical
observations of
cloud cover as a proxy for wind velocity in climate
models to analyze the Walker circulation, the atmospheric air flow
and heat distribution in the tropic Pacific region that affects patterns of tropical rainfall.
The study is a «painstaking analysis» of the fragmented satellite record
and shows some consistency between
models and observations of
clouds, says meteorologist Bjorn Stevens of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world
and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (
and it appears to, since
model hindcasts of past changes match
observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in
cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.
FMI has been involved in research project, which evaluated the simulations of long - range transport of BB aerosol by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS - 5)
and four other global aerosol
models over the complete South African - Atlantic region using
Cloud - Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP)
observations to find any distinguishing or common
model biases.
At this school, we will review physical
models for
cloud formation in Solar System planets, exoplanet
observations,
and laboratory studies.
Figure 1: Annual average TOA shortwave
cloud forcing for present - day conditions from 16 IPCC AR4
models and iRAM (bottom center) compared with CERES satellite
observations (bottom right)
I will after present 1D
and 3D self - consistent
cloud models, which allow to explain several
observations of brown dwarfs, directly imaged young exoplanets
and warm transiting exoplanets.
Gordon, N.D., J.R. Norris, C.P. Weaver,
and S.A. Klein, 2005: Cluster analysis of
cloud regimes
and characteristic dynamics of midlatitude synoptic systems in
observations and a
model.
In the future, further
observations of UGC 4703
and detailed
modeling of the system may help continue to puzzle out how our own Magellanic
clouds came about.
Lin, W.Y.,
and M.H. Zhang, 2004: Evaluation of
clouds and their radiative effects simulated by the NCAR Community Atmospheric
Model against satellite
observations.
The workshop, building on the knowledge
and practical skills acquired during the school, aims to bring together expertise on large - scale atmospheric
and oceanic dynamics, small scale
cloud and precipitation processes, hierarchical climate
modeling and observation.
The effort uses innovative ARM radar
observations from the MC3E field campaign to evaluate a series of high - resolution simulations, which results in an improved understanding of
cloud transitions
and how to diagnose these transitions in
models.
Aerosol -
cloud interactions in regional
and global climate
models: Uncertainties
and discrepancies between
models and observations
Current theories derived from computer
models and astronomical
observations indicate that a star
and its planets form from a collapsing
cloud of dust
and gas within a larger
cloud know as a nebula, according to the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore.
The unique mathematical technique described in the study integrates field
observations and cloud - resolving
models to identify environmental variables important for tropical storm -
cloud creation.
The paper argues that climate sensititvity to CO2 is much lower according to «
observation»
and that simplified «
models» combining PDO
and CO2 can «explain» most of 20th century warming through PDO - induced changes in
cloud cover.
Data from satellite
observations «suggest that greenhouse
models ignore negative feedback produced by
clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects» of human carbon dioxide emissions.
The
model variables that are evaluated against all sorts of
observations and measurements range from solar radiation
and precipitation rates, air
and sea surface temperatures,
cloud properties
and distributions, winds, river runoff, ocean currents, ice cover, albedos, even the maximum soil depth reached by plant roots (seriously!).
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world
and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (
and it appears to, since
model hindcasts of past changes match
observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in
cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.
eg pg xii To improve our predictive capability, we need: • to understand better the various climate - related processes, particularly those associated with
clouds, oceans
and the carbon cycle • to improve the systematic
observation of climate - related variables on a global basis,
and further investigate changes which took place in the past • to develop improved
models of the Earth's climate system • to increase support for national
and international climate research activities, especially in developing countries • to facilitate international exchange of climate data
See Stowasser & Hamilton, Relationship between Shortwave
Cloud Radiative Forcing
and Local Meteorological Variables Compared in
Observations and Several Global Climate
Models, Journal of Climate 2006; Lauer et al., The Impact of Global Warming on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific — A Regional
Model Study, Journal of Climate 2010.
However, the simulation of
clouds in climate
models has shown modest improvement relative to
models available at the time of the AR4,
and this has been aided by new evaluation techniques
and new
observations for
clouds.
Other studies indicate that
models with strongly positive low -
cloud feedback are more consistent with
observations than
models with weakly positive or negative feedback (Qu et al. 2014, 2015b, Myers
and Norris 2016).
Researchers looking to compare climate
model - simulated
clouds and cloud observations from the ARM Climate Research Facility can access a helpful new tool.
As part of my past
and ongoing research I have used a range of
observations and models to examine how
clouds interact with background aerosols, how
clouds respond to warming,
and what role
clouds play in the global water cycle.
The meeting will mainly cover the following themes, but can include other topics related to understanding
and modelling the atmosphere: ● Surface drag
and momentum transport: orographic drag, convective momentum transport ● Processes relevant for polar prediction: stable boundary layers, mixed - phase
clouds ● Shallow
and deep convection: stochasticity, scale - awareness, organization, grey zone issues ●
Clouds and circulation feedbacks: boundary - layer
clouds, CFMIP, cirrus ● Microphysics
and aerosol -
cloud interactions: microphysical
observations, parameterization, process studies on aerosol -
cloud interactions ● Radiation: circulation coupling; interaction between radiation
and clouds ● Land - atmosphere interactions: Role of land processes (snow, soil moisture, soil temperature,
and vegetation) in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction ● Physics - dynamics coupling: numerical methods, scale - separation
and grey - zone, thermodynamic consistency ● Next generation
model development: the challenge of exascale, dynamical core developments, regional refinement, super-parametrization ● High Impact
and Extreme Weather: role of convective scale
models; ensembles; relevant challenges for
model development
I didn't make a guess, but Sato did not show a reduced albedo from more polluted
clouds,
and nobody has either in
models or
observations.
In - depth analysis reveals that the
model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under - produce
clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the
observations, while the deep convective
and stratiform
cloud schemes significantly over-produce low - level
clouds throughout the day.
Sources such as the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI),
and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the Aura satellite, the
Cloud - Aerosol Lidar
and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite
Observations (CALIPSO),
and the ground - based Aerosol Robotic Network (Aeronet) will be used, requiring the input of both the
modeling and observational communities.
The
modeled mean CWCs [
cloud water] over tropical oceans range from ∼ 3 % to ∼ 15 × of the
observations in the UT
and 40 % to 2 × of the
observations in the L / MT.
· Jiang, J. H., et al. (2012), Evaluation of
cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate
models using NASA «A-Train» satellite
observations, J. Geophys.
So we're beginning to understand the range better
and the role of
cloud processes, on the one hand, in the deep
modelling systems, the role of
observation uncertainties of some of the other methods for estimating it.
In addition to treating
cloud transmission based only on the measurements at the local time of the TOMS
observations, the results from other satellites
and weather assimilation
models can be used to estimate atmospheric UV irradiance transmission throughout the day.
There have been many studies aiming to test this hypothesis since AR4, 50 which fall in two categories: i) studies that seek to establish a causal relationship between cosmic rays
and 51 aerosols /
clouds by looking at correlations between the two quantities on timescales of days to decades,
and 52 ii) studies that test through
observations or
modelling one of the physical mechanisms that have been put 53 forward.
There have been many studies aiming to test this hypothesis since AR4, which fall in two categories: i) studies that seek to establish a causal relationship between cosmic rays
and aerosols /
clouds by looking at correlations between the two quantities on timescales of days to decades,
and studies that test through
observations or
modeling one of the physical mechanisms that have been put forward.
«Evaluation of water permittivity
models from ground - based
observations of cold
clouds at frequencies between 23
and 170 GHz.»
This project will advance our understanding of seasonal ice zone (SIZ)
cloud - ice feedbacks
and our ability to forecast SIZ weather
and ice conditions through the combination of carefully designed
model experiments,
observations,
and technology developments which are targeted to validate
and improve the
models.
«Abstract: The Community Atmosphere
Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5,
and 0.25 °, with the meteorology nudged toward the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis,
and cloud simulators
and the collocated A-Train satellite
observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol -
cloud interactions.
The MIT
model permits one to systematically vary the
model's climate sensitivity (by varying the strength of the
cloud feedback)
and rate of mixing of heat into the deep ocean
and determine how the goodness - of - fit with
observations depends on these factors.
Kay, J. E.,
and Coauthors: Exposing global
cloud biases in the Community Atmosphere
Model (CAM) using satellite
observations and their corresponding instrument simulators.
The regions in which monthly means meet the mid-tropospheric dryness criterion frequently broadly correspond to regions with frequent low -
cloud cover, both in
observations (Fig. 1a)
and in climate
models.
Spencer & Braswell (2008) found: «we obtain positive
cloud feedback biases in the range -0.3 to -0.8 Wm ^ -2 K ^ -1... our results suggest the possibility of an even larger discrepancy between
models and observations than is currently realized» See Spencer's discussion on Foster's comments «As can be seen, most
models exhibit large biases — as much as 50 deg.
Evaluation of
cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate
models using NASA «A-Train» satellite
observations.
They then ran computer
models of the atmosphere to measure the effects of the black carbon, based on what scientists have learned about chemical reactions in
clouds from experiments
and observations.
Dessler made a fascinating
observation of
cloud feedbacks in some of the
models he looked at in - A determination of the
cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade, A.E. Dessler, Science 330, 1523 (2010); DOI 10.1126 / science.1192546 He writes, The sign of the short - wave feedback shows more variation among
models; it is positive in five of the
models and negative in three.