At night the reflection effect is zero so the greenhouse effect and reflection of thermal radiation dominate and the low thick
clouds have a warming effect.
Not exact matches
Besides SSCE, scientists
have also been investigating stratospheric sulfur injections — firing sun - reflecting aerosols into the air, similar to the cooling
effect after a volcanic eruption — and cirrus
cloud thinning, where you thin the top level of
clouds, which
have a
warming effect on the planet.
But at breaks in the
cloud deck, smoke
has the opposite
effect: It is brighter than the dark ocean surface, reflecting solar radiation and reducing
warming.
In a recent study, for instance, well - respected climate models were shown to
have completely opposing estimates for the overall
effect of the
clouds and smoke in the southeast Atlantic: Some found net
warming, whereas others found cooling.
Scientists
have been interested in the
effects of pollution on Arctic
clouds because of their potential
warming effect.
It may seem surprising to people, but you can look at something like Mars, which
has a very thin atmosphere, and you can look at something like Venus which we tend to think of as sort of
having this rather heavy,
clouded atmosphere, which [is] hellishly
warm because of runaway greenhouse
effect, and on both of those planets you are seeing this phenomenon of the atmosphere leaking away, is actually what directly
has led to those very different outcomes for those planets; the specifics of what happened as the atmosphere started to go in each case [made] all the difference.
A study published in Nature Climate Change in March demonstrated that contrails
have a net
warming effect and can also affect natural
cloud patterns.
And, Stevens says, the study doesn't discuss the types of
clouds that are thought to be the most crucial for future
warming: low - lying
clouds over the subtropical oceans, which
have a strong cooling
effect but may be dissipating as the world
warms.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of
cloud formation and whether this will
have a positive or negative
effect on global
warming.
[Response: Note also that more low
clouds would unambiguously mean a cooling
effect, but more high
clouds could lead to either a
warming effect or a cooling
effect, depending on the altitude of the
clouds and the typical particle size in the GCR - induced
clouds (if any).
I'm not even an amateur climate scientist, but my logic tells me that if
clouds have a stronger negative feedback in the Arctic, and I know (from news) the Arctic is
warming faster than other areas, then it seems «forcing GHGs» (CO2, etc) may
have a strong sensitivity than suggested, but this is suppressed by the
cloud effect.
Constable
would often record his thoughts on the back of the studies, for example on Branch Hill Pond, Hampstead he writes: «We
have had noble
clouds and
effects of light and dark and colour — as is always the case with such seasons as the present», while on
Cloud Study, Hampstead he describes a «morning under the sun,
clouds silvery grey on
warm sultry ground».
I know Lindzen
has a theory that a change in tropical
cloud cover will offset greenhouse - gas - caused
warming, the unproven «iris
effect».
I
would expect the albedo
effect presented by
clouds to be weak over the mostly snow / ice covered Antarctica, but Svensmark argues that the
clouds here
warm rather than cool the temperature.
For instance, increasing
cloud cover due to global
warming may change the albedo, but this
would be a feedback to a larger
warming effect, rather than a cooling.
I
've touched on lake -
effect snows, the classic pattern in the Upper Midwest and western New York State in which frigid winds blowing over relatively
warm Great Lakes waters generate persistent
cloud bands and lots of snow.
(Note that radiative forcing is not necessarily proportional to reduction in atmospheric transparency, because relatively opaque layers in the lower
warmer troposphere (water vapor, and for the fractional area they occupy, low level
clouds) can reduce atmospheric transparency a lot on their own while only reducing the net upward LW flux above them by a small amount; colder, higher - level
clouds will
have a bigger
effect on the net upward LW flux above them (per fraction of areal coverage), though they will
have a smaller
effect on the net upward LW flux below them.
So, the question of whether or not more of these
clouds would be formed, along with the question of their net
effect (given that they reflect sunlight from above, but also trap heat from below), gives rise to some degree of imprecision when it comes to the degree of
warming predicted by models.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air /
clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse
effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive,
clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and
clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far
have been more a summer phenomenon (when it
would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or
would have formed or
would have been thicker; the seasonal
effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter
would not be so delayed).
I'm not a
cloud expert, and I may be describing this particular uncertainty inaccurately, but I use this as one example, and (unless this aspect of the science
has changed in recent months) I believe that one aspect of uncertainty
has to do with these
clouds and their ultimate net
effect as the atmosphere
warms.
First,
clouds can
have a greenhouse
effect that can offset their albedo
effect and allow
warming.
Global
warming will only
have a small
effect in the tropics provided the
cloud forests remain.
«While low
clouds have a predominantly cooling
effect due to their shading of sunlight, most cirrus
clouds have a net
warming effect on the Earth,» Spencer said.
Spencer + Braswell
have shown that over the tropics on a shorter - term basis, the net overall feedback from
clouds with
warming is negative; this is largely due to an increase in reflection of incoming radiation by increased
clouds with a smaller
effect from the reduction of energy trapping high altitude
clouds, which slow down outgoing radiation by absorbing and re-radiating energy.
For example,
clouds in day time
have a net cooling
effect but at night time they
have a net
warming effect.
Stuart L I am a stupid layman, but wonder about the
effects of water vapour (
clouds) when I lived in the UK
cloud conditions
would cause the temps to be milder (
warmer) here in Philippines
cloud causes cooler conditions, how can one calculate the overall
effect on the earths surface?.
These models suggest that if the net
effect of ocean circulation, water vapour,
cloud, and snow feedbacks were zero, the approximate temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels
would be a 1oC
warming.
With regard to
clouds, Willis argues that no
clouds in daylight in the tropics will
have a net
warming effect compared to
clouds.
While this does not «prove» that global
warming is not man - made, it shows that weather systems
have by far the greatest control over the Earth's greenhouse
effect, which is dominated by water vapor and
clouds.»
I thought I read a few findings that showed that aerosols actually
had an overall
warming effect rather than a cooling one (brown
cloud over Asia raising temps).
In addition, the larger amount of open water leads to more moisture in the air, which affects the formation of
clouds that
have their own
effect on
warming, either enhancing or reducing it.
Every model assumes that tropical - region cirrus
cloud cover, which
has a net
warming effect on surface temperatures, increases with increasing surface temperature — a positive feedback.
Clouds are one of the big unknowns about global
warming as they can
have a range of
effects,
warmer temperatures caused by global
warming will result in higher rates of evaporation and therefore will result in higher
cloud cover.
Clouds
have both a cooling
effect and a
warming effect, depending on the type of
cloud.
More
clouds both drastically reduce energy input from the sun and simply slow release of what energy there is trapped in the lower troposphere, but the long term
effect would be a fall in average temperature because of the significantly reduced input power but the atmosphere's ability to cool is aided by air current circulation whereby the
warmer air rises above those low
clouds and that infra - red is more easily re-emitted into space, whereby the low
clouds now block that re-emission from hitting the ground again to any significant degree.
While CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas, increasing concentrations of which may be expected to
have (other things being equal) a
warming effect, scientists disagree about how large that
effect may be (this is particularly affected by ignorance of the
effect of
clouds).
Warmer winters (if they
have lots of
clouds... in winter thick
clouds actually
warm since there is less daylight and there cooling
effect is now reversed to
warming by retaining the heat... reflecting more IR than carbon dioxide can do, depending upon the type of
cloud).
1700: A new study aims to highlight the potential of a geoengineering technique referred to as «marine
cloud - brightening» (MCB) which researchers say
has the potential to cancel out the
effects of global
warming in a world double the CO2 concentration of the pre-industrial world.
Heating «
cloud albedo
effect» is a far better explanation of palaeo - climate than CO2 because the latter
has a delay of 500-1500 years as oceans
warm.
Clouds» impact on climate
would obviously change as the world
warms (a feedback) but, if solar - magnetic
effects change
clouds, as now seems likely,
clouds could also drive climate change (a forcing).6, 7
Seeding the
clouds in this way
would cause them to dissipate more quickly, lessening their overall
warming effect.
Since low altitude
clouds have a net cooling
effect (their «whiteness» is more important than their «blanket»
effect), increased solar activity implies a
warmer climate.
In contrast, high
clouds tend to
have a
warming effect on the surface and atmosphere.
However — a group of scientists of the US Department of Energy Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the University of Maryland and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem now say that aerosol pollution does not necessarily lead to (low - lying) stratus
clouds one
would appreciate for climatic cooling, but that it can also be a factor in the creation of thunderstorm
clouds,
clouds that
have a complicated climate
effect, but that are suspected of being net
warmers.
Basically, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi's life as a NASA climate research scientist was made hell because he discovered that the extra water vapour being evaporated is not
having a positive - feedback (increasing the CO2
warming effect by absorbing more infrared from the sun), instead it is going into increased
cloud cover, which reflects incoming sunlight back to space.
And even if you can demonstrate an
effect on
cloud cover,
clouds have both a cooling and a
warming effect, what will the balance be and how much will that net forcing be?
In short, Lindzen's argument is that the radiative forcing from aerosols is highly uncertain with large error bars, and that they
have both cooling (mainly by scattering sunlight and seeding
clouds) and
warming (mainly by black carbon darkening the Earth's surface and reducing its reflectivity)
effects.
Perhaps they will find
clouds don't influence
warming so much, maybe
having a damping
effect.
So, CO2 - AGW is probably very low [overestimated by a factor of > = c. 3] and «
cloud albedo
effect» heating
has probably been responsible for the
warming, now stopped because the
effect has has saturated.
Their promotional embellishments
have also corrupted the meaning of «greenhouse
effect,» a term originally relating the loose confinement of
warm nighttime air near ground level by
cloud cover, to hot air trapped inside a greenhouse,» Kondis explained..