If those projections are even remotely accurate, what do you think that will do to
coal and oil prices?
Not exact matches
Since then, she's dealt with the crash in
oil prices,
and the current Alberta government's plan to phase out
coal - fired power.
Low
oil prices, a retreat of the
coal industry, solar
and battery booms,
and the return of nuclear are all trends you should watch next year.
With high
oil prices persistently poised to derail the global economy, with large economies like Germany
and Japan swearing off nuclear in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, with
coal hampered by looming emissions caps, unexpectedly abundant gas seems poised to fill the energy void.
Of Tokyo's 33 subsectors, 20 were in the red, with
oil and coal products leading the decliners after an overnight slide by crude
prices to two - week lows.
with carbon
pricing and other measures, including eliminating
coal - fired power plants, cutting methane emissions from the
oil industry,
and making cleaner fuels, Canada will still be 90 million tonnes shy of its international emissions targets set in 2015 under the Paris agreement
The
prices of crude
oil, natural gas
and coal all headed south.
Similar to some
oil and gas companies, many
coal miners accumulated major debt loads when
prices were high
and demand seemed sustainable.
Admittedly we are a net importer of
oil (increasingly so as Bass Strait reserves diminish), but Australian entities make large exports of natural gas
and thermal
coal, whose
prices are highly correlated with
oil prices over time.
Chinese growth has meant enormous demand
and rising
prices for many of Canada's resources, particularly
coal and oil, as well as base metals such as copper, nickel
and aluminum.
The
prices of other sources of energy, such as
coal and gas, also appear to be affected by
oil price movements, though these relationships are quite loose,
and depend on the state of world demand
and stock levels.
The shale
oil boom has driven natural gas
prices lower
and coal - fired power plants are switching over to natural gas.
For the time being, much of the analysis on the financial losses focuses on the plunge in
oil and coal prices,
and the potential that a huge portion of the global reserves of
oil, gas,
and coal will be «stranded» in the ground to curb climate change.
The Alberta government received the final report from the independent panel led by University of Alberta economics professor Andrew Leach
and announced its plans to phase out
coal burning electricity plants, phase in a
price on carbon, introduce a limit on overall emissions from the
oil sands
and introduce an energy efficiency strategy.
Rather, there are known supplies of
oil,
coal and other natural resources whose quantities tend to expand as their
prices rise, making it more profitable to explore for new deposits.
The venture has been repeatedly delayed over several years amid changing state regulations for
coal seam gas
and a lack of capital to move forward after the collapse in
oil prices.
Combination of economic trends
and policies Still, for now an array of Obama administration actions
and economic trends are conspiring to cut emissions, according to EIA: Americans are using less
oil because of high gasoline
prices; carmakers are complying with federal fuel economy standards; electricity companies are becoming more efficient; state renewable energy rules are ushering wind
and solar energy onto the power grids; gas
prices are competitive with
coal;
and federal air quality regulations are closing the dirtiest power plants.
For a system of enhanced
oil recovery fed by
coal plants designed for carbon capture to pay off, Denbury, Tellus
and every other
oil company must survive current low
oil prices.
While environmental advocacy organizations have taken credit for prompting these changes at some of the world's top banks, the shift coincides with crashing commodity
prices in
oil,
coal and natural gas markets worldwide.
Two years ago the U.S. Department of Energy predicted a resurgence of
coal - fired power plants because of the rising
price of
oil and natural gas.
IIASA Energy Program Director Keywan Riahi explains, «Low
oil and gas
prices make it harder for
coal and renewables to compete.
With
oil and natural gas
prices rising rapidly
and nuclear power stuck in political limbo, the world's appetite for
coal is soaring.
All the while, low
prices for fossil fuels like
oil and coal are undermining incentives for clean energy deployment.
$ 8 billion) over first ten years for deficit reductionObeys PAYGO; Starting in 2026, 25 % of auction revenues for deficit reductionFuels
and TransportationIncrease biofuels to 60 million gallons by 2030, low - carbon fuel standard of 10 % by 2010, 1 million plug» in hybrid cars by 2025, raise fuel economy standards, smart growth funding, end oil subsidies, promote natural gas drilling, enhanced oil recoverySmart growth funding, plug - in hybrids, raise fuel economy standards $ 7 billion a year for smart growth funding, plug - in hybrids, natural gas vehicles, raise fuel economy standards; offshore drilling with revenue sharing and oil spill veto, natural gas fracking disclosureCost ContainmentInternational offsetsOffset pool, banking and borrowing flexibility, soft price collar using permit reserve auction at $ 28 per ton going to 60 % above three - year - average market price» Hard» price collar between $ 12 and $ 25 per ton, floor increases at 3 % + CPI, ceiling at 5 % + CPI, plus permit reserve auction, offsets like W - MClean Air Act And StatesNot discussedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
and TransportationIncrease biofuels to 60 million gallons by 2030, low - carbon fuel standard of 10 % by 2010, 1 million plug» in hybrid cars by 2025, raise fuel economy standards, smart growth funding, end
oil subsidies, promote natural gas drilling, enhanced
oil recoverySmart growth funding, plug - in hybrids, raise fuel economy standards $ 7 billion a year for smart growth funding, plug - in hybrids, natural gas vehicles, raise fuel economy standards; offshore drilling with revenue sharing
and oil spill veto, natural gas fracking disclosureCost ContainmentInternational offsetsOffset pool, banking and borrowing flexibility, soft price collar using permit reserve auction at $ 28 per ton going to 60 % above three - year - average market price» Hard» price collar between $ 12 and $ 25 per ton, floor increases at 3 % + CPI, ceiling at 5 % + CPI, plus permit reserve auction, offsets like W - MClean Air Act And StatesNot discussedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
and oil spill veto, natural gas fracking disclosureCost ContainmentInternational offsetsOffset pool, banking
and borrowing flexibility, soft price collar using permit reserve auction at $ 28 per ton going to 60 % above three - year - average market price» Hard» price collar between $ 12 and $ 25 per ton, floor increases at 3 % + CPI, ceiling at 5 % + CPI, plus permit reserve auction, offsets like W - MClean Air Act And StatesNot discussedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
and borrowing flexibility, soft
price collar using permit reserve auction at $ 28 per ton going to 60 % above three - year - average market
price» Hard»
price collar between $ 12
and $ 25 per ton, floor increases at 3 % + CPI, ceiling at 5 % + CPI, plus permit reserve auction, offsets like W - MClean Air Act And StatesNot discussedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
and $ 25 per ton, floor increases at 3 % + CPI, ceiling at 5 % + CPI, plus permit reserve auction, offsets like W - MClean Air Act
And StatesNot discussedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
And StatesNot discussedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap
and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
and trade suspended until 2017, EPA to set stationary source performance standards in 2016, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedOnly polluters above 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, regional cap
and trade pre-empted, establishes coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/
and trade pre-empted, establishes
coal - fired plant performance standards, some Clean Air Act provisions excludedInternational CompetitivenessTax incentives for domestic auto industryFree allowances for trade - exposed industries, 2020 carbon tariff on importsCarbon tariff on importsReferences: Barack Obama, 2007; Barack Obama, 8/3/08; Pew Center, 6/26/09; leaked drafts of American Power Act, 5/11/10.
If you look at page 20 you will see that in the reference case,
oil and coal prices go up over time despite the improvement in technology happening simultaneously.
Less commonly, countries spoke of reducing the use of inefficient
coal - fired power plants, lowering methane emissions from
oil and gas production, reforming fossil fuel subsidies,
and carbon
pricing, the report says.
More likely though, is that commodities that are in short supply globally would rise, like
coal, steel,
oil, gold, rare minerals, etc.,
and only after a while, would housing
prices rise, as nominal incomes become large enough,
and household formation great enough for the excess supply to disappear.
Because if
coal to liquids was profitable at the present
price of
oil, we'd be seeing someone open a
coal to liquids plant
and making a profit based on the difference.
Hansen wrote ``... In my testimony [to Congress] I noted that a «Cap» raises the
price of energy, just as does a simple honest carbon tax on
oil, gas
and coal at the first sale at the mine or port of entry.
With
oil prices as low as they are, now would be a perfect time for other countries to follow Morocco's lead — either slashing
oil,
coal and gas subsidies or raising their gas taxes before
prices start to rise again.
The share
prices of
oil, gas
and coal companies depend in part on their reserves.
Today's sobering story on how economic turmoil could blunt climate - friendly energy plans, by Elisabeth Rosenthal, implies that a new kind of climate
and energy trance may indeed be nigh — not one created just by dropping
prices for
coal and oil but also by the urgency of a global economic retreat.
But here's what's changed: the sharp cost reductions now beginning to take place in solar, wind,
and geothermal power — coupled with the recent dramatic
price increases for
oil and coal — have radically changed the economics of energy.
If the full cost of a barrel of
oil and the environmental costs of a ton of
coal were reflected in their market
price, many energy
and environmental experts say, that might go a long way toward shifting the balance toward renewable energy sources.
If fuel
prices stay the way they've been (that is, expensive
and becoming more so), we can expect to see more funding for magnificent developments in alternative fuels (sadly, one of which is
coal) as they supplant
oil as an industrial, commercial
and transportation energy source.
Even if you trim off the ends of the curve of squalor
and overindulgence, you end up with a huge energy gap, which may already be what is helping drive up
oil and coal prices (keep in mind most experts on fossil fuels I talk to see no signs of «peak
coal» any time soon).
Here's a solution: All the sovereign States with gas,
oil,
and coal reserves, can use their sovereign power to simply clamp down on production, driving FF
prices higher,
and achieve the Nirvana New Energy Future as rapidly as is physically possible.
What's required, energy experts agree, is not just a
price for carbon, but also massive public investments to deploy clean energy technologies so we can achieve the performance
and price breakthroughs needed for these new technologies to be picked up worldwide, including in places like China
and India whose development is being fueled by cheap
coal and oil.
The collapse in the
oil price to 12 - year lows
and bankruptcies in the
coal sector underscore the risk of «financial stranding»
and signals that fossil fuel companies need to accept that they are ex-growth stocks
and must urgently re-assess their business models accordingly.
The Great Transition details this evolving trend, focusing on falling
prices and rising adoption for wind, solar, electric vehicles, hydropower, geothermal energy,
and energy efficiency;
and the emerging turn from
coal, nuclear power,
oil,
and traditional transportation that is happening faster than anticipated.
That, in turn, would create the mass markets
and economies of scale for renewables that would bring down their
prices and make them competitive with
coal and oil.
The grid operator testified that «wholesale energy
prices and emissions will rise when extreme weather results in natural gas pipeline constraints — driving up the
price of natural gas (
and wholesale energy)
and forcing New England to rely on
oil -
and coal - fired generation for multi-day (or multi-week) periods.»
Koch informed his audience that «
coal is relatively low in
price, that
oil has been «pretty cheap» until recently
and that there is an abundance of natural gas, available at a
price almost competitive with
coal,» the Palm Beach paper reported.
Phasing in full - cost
pricing will quickly reduce
oil and coal use.
Substituting wind, solar,
and other low - density energy sources for
coal,
oil,
and natural gas therefore hurts the poor not only by raising energy (
and all other)
prices but also by reducing food production.
Many analysts are suggesting that — with
prices falling
and production costs rising — the coming year could be when investors realize the game is up for the
coal and oil industries.
The advent of US shale
oil was also disastrous, lowering the
price of crude
oil that is the benchmark upon which other forms of energy are judged,
and having consequences like knocking the bottom out of the
coal market, so
coal began again to compete with renewables.
Cheaper natural gas has pushed out older, less - efficient
coal and oil generation; however, the region's increasing overreliance on natural gas will provide few additional emissions benefits
and increases risks of
price volatility or supply disruption.
If TCR / ECS are lower than assumed by IPCC experts,
and if we use resource limits on
oil, gas
and coal (rather than using the hyper cornucopian figures used in RCP8.5), then the market, emerging technology driven by higher fossil fuel
prices will reduce emissions to have concentration peak at ~ 630 ppm (that's a rough estimate).
If these actions lowered
prices sufficiently one could even conceive of making the US the new Saudi Arabia of
oil, natural gas,
and coal.