Global coal demand dropped for a second year in a row in 2016, approaching the previous record for two - year declines set in the early 1990s.
The revision comes as official preliminary data indicate that a decline in
Chinese coal demand occurred in 2014, and is set to accelerate in 2015.
Investors want assurances that capital is not being spent on high - cost, high - carbon projects that may not be competitive as global
coal demand declines.
The company
expects coal demand to rise in the coming year, but relatively low natural gas prices will continue to add downward pricing pressure.
While coal demand is expected to fall slightly, the headlines hide a more complicated picture.
Companies most exposed to
low coal demand are those developing new projects, focused on the export market.
Also, if newer greener energy technologies can reasonably replace our baseline power needs from coal - fired power plants
then coal demand will decline further.
If growth continues at the current pace, generators would add another 1 billion tonnes of
new coal demand every three years.
In the best - case scenario,
coal demand dips down for the next few years then holds steady.
Chinese coal demand declined in 2016 — as it did in 2014 and 2015 — despite an increase in coal - power generation.
The IEA's Medium - Term Coal Market Report 2015, slashed its five - year estimate of global
coal demand growth by more than 500 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in recognition of the tremendous pressures facing the market.
The clear direction of travel for coal consumption is underscored by the IEA's 2016 World Energy Outlook that brought forward the peak for thermal
coal demand in China by 17 years in its New Policies Scenario - recognising demand peaked in 2013 as opposed to 2030.
In its latest Medium - Term Coal Market Report the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowing
of coal demand growth but no retreat in its global use.
Here in outback Queensland, Australia, we are experiencing firsthand the consequences of the
growing coal demands of countries like India and China.
At a time when industry analysts laughed at the suggestion, Carbon Tracker was already modelling the impact of Chinese thermal
coal demand peaking on the seaborne markets.
Coal consumption across Asia is slated to outpace that of China over the next 20 years, coupled with an absolute increase in global
coal demand over the next seven years.
The potential
for coal demand growth in China is limited, but the country's supply - side reforms will be critical factors for coal prices in the coming years.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, low - carbon sources double their share in the energy mix to 40 % in 2040, all avenues to improve efficiency are pursued,
coal demand goes into an immediate decline and oil consumption peaks soon thereafter.
The report
sees coal demand outside China modestly increasing through 2020, as the structural decline in Europe and the United States is more than offset by growth in India and Southeast Asia.
But Barnett said such conditions would hinge on a number of factors, including a reduction in
coal demand overseas.
Cheap shale gas is significantly
reducing coal demand in the United States, but global coal consumption is still expected to rise 2.6 percent annually by 2017, the International Energy Agency said today in a report.
«If the increase in emissions generated from burning oil and natural gas outpaces the emissions reduction associated with
falling coal demand, then China's total emissions would still go up.
«At 50 MW — 350 MW, modular units could provide efficiency and cost benefits, but probably wouldn't have significant impact
on coal demand given the number of coal - fired unit retirements / closures being considered and the length of time this would take to get to the commercial stage (5 — 10 years).
Natural gas consumption in the power sector tumbled 7.3 percent, while
coal demand dropped 1.9 percent.
Slower power demand growth means
slower coal demand growth as coal fuels just under 80 % of Chinese electricity generation.
Meeting coal demand in Japan Indonesian coal is also expected to help fuel a surge in fossil power generation in Japan after that country shuttered its nuclear plants in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor meltdown in 2011.
«
Coal demand never stropped growing in the financial crisis and despite aggressive climate policies in many places,» van der Hoeven said in a teleconference with journalists.
Coal consumption is soaring, and according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the country burned 325 million tons last year alone, putting China's
coal demand at 47 percent of global consumption (ClimateWire, Jan. 30).
Inexpensive natural gas, lower
international coal demand and U.S. environmental regulations have led to a precipitous decline in U.S. coal production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Headlines in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) during the first quarter of 2016 included «Coal set for dramatic shake - out», «Australian coal «high risk» on exports», and «China
coal demand tipped to fall further.»
The report says China will surpass the rest of the world in
coal demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest seaborne coal importer and second - largest consumer, surpassing the United States....
Global steel production is expected to increase more than 10 percent in 2010, and global seaborne
metallurgical coal demand is expected to increase by more than 50 million tonnes.
Approximately 94 gigawatts of new coal - fueled plants are expected to begin operations in 2010, representing approximately 375 million tons of
annual coal demand.
Bullish forecasts for global thermal
coal demand erroneously assume most of more than a dozen other proposed Indian Ultra Mega Power Projects will be built.
Corporate asset values are premised upon implausible assumptions about
future coal demand in a carbon - constrained world.
As politicians and industry groups cry that coal is not dead, environmentalists respond that it will be soon, and companies explain to shareholders and journalists how coal will weather the new normal of
diminishing coal demand, the men and women who work in the mines simply worry.
The report, which predicts trends in the coal market to 2017,
suggests coal demand will reach the energy equivalent of 4.32 billion tonnes of oil by that year — narrowly below 4.4 billion tonnes of demand for oil itself.
With
coal demand already starting to decline in the U.S. and other developed countries, the coal boom may be over.
UK coal demand has fallen precipitously because of cheaper gas, the expansion of renewables, falling demand for energy and the closure of Redcar steelworks in late 2015.
Enough Already: Meeting 2 °C Powder River
Basin Coal Demand Without Lifting the Federal Moratorium
As a result of these contrasting trends, global
coal demand reaches 5 530 Mtce in 2022, which is only marginally higher than current levels, meaning that coal use all but stagnates for around a decade.
For example, the IEA see
coal demand as flat over the next five years, which will likely be followed by a steady decline as CO2 emissions continue to decouple from economic growth.
A growing share of global
coal demand comes from those countries, though the coal boom climate hawks feared seems to be slowing somewhat.
Phrases with «coal demand»