The potential for
coal demand growth in China is limited, but the country's supply - side reforms will be critical factors for coal prices in the coming years.
Slower power demand growth means slower
coal demand growth as coal fuels just under 80 % of Chinese electricity generation.
In its latest Medium - Term Coal Market Report the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowing of
coal demand growth but no retreat in its global use.
China's
coal demand growth averaged 9 % per year from 2000 to 2010, more than double the global growth rate of 4 % and significantly higher than global growth excluding China, which averaged only 1 %.
The report sharply lowered its five - year global
coal demand growth forecast in reflection of economic restructuring in China, which represents half of global coal consumption.
Not exact matches
A slowdown in the
growth of China's
coal demand, due to more tepid economic
growth and fuel substitution, has sent the prices that Australia fetches for its thermal
coal plunging from US$ 125 a tonne in early 2012 to around US$ 70 a tonne.
Plus, the structural changes underway, favoring a transition away from heavy industry, point to weak
demand growth ahead for
coal.
Chinese
growth has meant enormous
demand and rising prices for many of Canada's resources, particularly
coal and oil, as well as base metals such as copper, nickel and aluminum.
However, the Newcastle port operator's decision to introduce a quota system to allocate transport chain capacity and reduce the ship queue is one illustration that provides clear evidence that a shortage of transport capacity is limiting the industry's ability to meet strong
growth in
coal demand.
Rapid
growth in global steel
demand has also boosted contract prices for other bulk commodities; coking
coal contract prices increased, on average, by 25 — 35 per cent in US dollar terms in recent negotiations, while iron ore contract prices have risen by close to 20 per cent.
The
coal industry is booming driven by
growth in export
demand for
coal world wide and the large number of
coal - fired power plants currently scheduled to come online.
Among other things, this has seen the
growth in global steel production stall, and hence lower
growth in the
demand for iron ore and coking
coal.
FOLLOWING more than a decade of aggressive
growth, global
coal demand has stalled, the International Energy Agency, IEA, said in its Annual Coal Market Report, released last w
coal demand has stalled, the International Energy Agency, IEA, said in its Annual
Coal Market Report, released last w
Coal Market Report, released last week.
But the trend is also thanks to a slowdown in economic
growth, including lower
demand for steel for the first time in decades, which in turn lessens the need for
coal to fire up the furnaces.
Even without the environmental drive, new railways from mines to ports, falling investment in
coal - fired generation and slowing power
demand growth could see China's miners export some of their surplus output at competitive prices, hitting regional miners and the viability of new projects.
The infant solar power companies, however, must gain their foothold by taking business away from the incumbent and politically powerful
coal, natural gas and nuclear power providers, at a time when overall
growth in U.S. electricity
demand is still slowed by an underperforming economy.
Because economic
growth continues to boost the
demand for energy — more
coal for powering new factories, more oil for fueling new cars, more natural gas for heating new homes — carbon emissions will keep climbing despite the introduction of more energy - efficient vehicles, buildings and appliances.
India is as determined as ever to sustain its economic
growth and
demand help from the rich world for any costly diversion from conventional
coal burning to fuel that
growth.
Every 4 days china builds a
coal plant, in america even with slower economic
growth our energy
demand is growing.
If
growth continues at the current pace, generators would add another 1 billion tonnes of new
coal demand every three years.
Renewable sources of energy meet 40 % of the increase in primary
demand and their explosive
growth in the power sector marks the end of the boom years for
coal.
Coal use patterns around the region reflect the rising
demand for electricity needed to power and steer economic
growth.
In India's case, the IEA has said that India's
coal demand will see the biggest
growth over next five years with annual average
growth rate of 5 % by 2021.
U.S.
coal exports were up in 2011 as a result of supply disruptions in Australia, Indonesia, and Colombia in late 2010 and early 2011 and strong
demand growth in Asia.
Nevertheless,
growth of solar PV and EVs significantly curb
coal, oil and gas
demand in our scenarios.
In the meantime, with all the cancelled
coal plants, how is the nation going to cope with increased
demands for electricty due to economic
growth?
In India, the third - largest
coal consumer in the world,
coal - fired power generation increased by 3.3 % in 2015, which is considerably lower than the 11 %
growth of 2014, mostly due to lower
demand growth.»
Interestingly, despite significant
demand growth, even the total amount of
coal - generated electricity would fall in absolute terms.
China continues to lead global
coal demand Total
coal demand (Mt) 2014 Total
coal demand (Mt) 2015 * Absolute
growth...
India's policymakers, for their part, have to deal with rapid development and population
growth that make
coal indispensable to meeting the expected 3.5 percent increase in year - on - year
demand for electricity between now and 2040.
This is obviously a debatable assumption as one could for instance argue that a more rapid
growth in renewable energy could allow for less energy efficiency gains and growing
demand for electricity, or perhaps a prolonging of the
coal industry at the cost of natural gas.
The government's central problem is that, as well as being polluting,
coal - fired power is not well suited to the problem of increasingly high peaks in power
demand, combined with slow
growth in total
demand.
The global
coal industry regularly cites the IEA's «New Policies Scenario» as driving huge
growth in
demand, and solving energy access problems.
With a growing fleet of
coal power plants running at less than 60 % of capacity and robust power
demand growth,
coal - fired generation is forecast to increase at nearly 4 % per year through 2022.
Combined with saturation of heavy industry
growth,
coal demand is forecast to decline through 2022, despite
growth in
coal conversion and in
coal - power generation.
However, sluggish power
demand, abundant gas supply and renewables
growth are expected to continue to generate headwinds for
coal use and limit the prospects for any resurgence in construction of new
coal power plants.
«Fossil fuel depletion requires mitigation to meet development and population
growth demands, unless you switch back to
coal,...»
Outside the power sector,
growth in thermal
coal demand is centred in the industrial sector thanks to robust economic
growth, as well as in coking
coal, thanks to rising steel consumption, housing, railways and steel - intensive industries such as shipbuilding, defense and vehicle manufacturing.
«If we look at consumption of
coal, the main drivers are rapid
growth in clean energy, slower power
demand growth due to shifting economic structure and energy efficiency.
The industry's plan B, to export production to assumed perennial
growth markets in Asia, has also floundered amid a global market awash with supply from other countries and weak
demand; Chinese
coal consumption fell nearly 3 % in 2014 while India, the world's third largest buyer, says it may stop imports of thermal
coal in the next three years With domestic markets collapsing and no lifeline from abroad, 264 [1] US mines were closed between 2011 and 2013.
Coal demand in China has slid as its economy slows amid a shift toward consumption - led
growth and while it intensifies efforts to rein in pollution.
For example, the IEA see
coal demand as flat over the next five years, which will likely be followed by a steady decline as CO2 emissions continue to decouple from economic
growth.
The CTI report says there will be no need for new
coal mines, oil
demand will peak around 2020, and
growth in gas will disappoint industry expectations if world leaders agree and then implement the policies needed to meet the UN commitment to keep climate change below 2 ˚C − the threshold agreed by most governments.
This is based on assumed annual
demand growth of 6.34 %; further scenarios with higher
growth rates and low addition of renewables capacity do require new
coal stations, but still only at most half of those under construction.
According to India's draft national electricity plan, no new
coal - fired stations will be required during 2017 — 22, with current capacity and projected renewables capacity sufficient to meet
demand growth.
Growth in the power sector is due to increased
demand for electricity, but natural gas's share does not increase as
coal and renewable energy also compete for the power sector market.
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The main reason was that
growth in renewables and nuclear power could not keep up with increased electricity
demand, even though some sources have cited a drought - induced drop in hydropower output as a factor in the rebounding
coal consumption.
India is also the world's fifth largest greenhouse gas emitter, according to the latest reliable information (CAIT 2007), with a heavy reliance on
coal power stations, though India's strong economic
growth has meant that
demand for electricity often outstrips supply, which has reinforced the need for alternative energy sources.
And though we burn 8 billion tons of
coal every year to fuel around 33 percent of the nation's electricity generation, the industry has been slumping in the face of low natural gas prices and sluggish
growth in electricity
demand.