At a time when industry analysts laughed at the suggestion, Carbon Tracker was already modelling the impact of Chinese thermal
coal demand peaking on the seaborne markets.
Coal demand peaks before 2020.
Coal demand peaks very soon, around 2020.
Not exact matches
With supply remaining abundant and
demand staying weak, the debate continues on when
Peak Coal will occur in China.
Coal consumption continues apace hence it would appear that the production decline is not demand led but rather that China may be approaching peak c
Coal consumption continues apace hence it would appear that the production decline is not
demand led but rather that China may be approaching
peak coalcoal.
In the
peak case, Chinese
coal demand in 2020 is 9.8 percent below the level in 2013 and more than 300 Mtce below the base - case forecast of nearly 2950 Mtce in 2020.
Currently, the energy needed to meet
peaks in
demand is stored in the form of natural gas and
coal.
Lazkano says that fossil fuel plants, particularly
coal - fired plants, must pay a significant cost when ramping up production to meet
peak demands.
The policy resulted in the building of
coal - fired power stations with a combined capacity of almost 12 gigawatts — about one - third of
peak German
demand in 2008.
Since they were presumably going to operate as base load as opposed to
peaker power, it's likely they were intending to sign long term contracts so that their incremental addition to the
demand for
coal would be absorbed not by creating an additional
demand on the spot market but by identifying a fixed source with a standing order and putting a few American miners to work on a full - time basis.
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, low - carbon sources double their share in the energy mix to 40 % in 2040, all avenues to improve efficiency are pursued,
coal demand goes into an immediate decline and oil consumption
peaks soon thereafter.
The larger problem is that the energy can be produced on -
demand with the
coal but with PV it is produced during
peak sunlight hours which in the UK is about 6 hours per day in the summer and 2 hours per day in the winter.
The first signs of a fossil - fuel bust emerged early last year with growing evidence that the decade - long boom in global
coal demand was
peaking.
Coal - fired power plants supplementing bunker fuel - based power generating systems feed on a seemingly endless permanently
peaking power
demands of billions of consumers in all countries, sustaining the carbon emissions.
Its
demand for
coal may even have
peaked.
As
demand increases towards its summer
peak level, the utilization rates for both
coal - and natural gas - fired units tend to rise.
The government's central problem is that, as well as being polluting,
coal - fired power is not well suited to the problem of increasingly high
peaks in power
demand, combined with slow growth in total
demand.
As my colleague Gordon pointed out in a post last week, India is currently learning the most important lesson about its over-dependence on outdated, centralized
coal - fired power: It is simply not flexible enough to accommodate India's real problem -
peak demand (the kind that happens when 20 million Delhi inhabitants turn on their air conditioners or fans all at once).
The report, «Expect the Unexpected», shows that on current cost trajectories, solar PV and EVs threaten to result in both
peak coal and oil
demand in the early 2020s, if countries meet their NDCs.
The CTI report says there will be no need for new
coal mines, oil
demand will
peak around 2020, and growth in gas will disappoint industry expectations if world leaders agree and then implement the policies needed to meet the UN commitment to keep climate change below 2 ˚C − the threshold agreed by most governments.
Global
demand for oil and
coal will most likely
peak and could decline over the next two decades.
Peak thermal
coal demand in China could be imminent.
Natural gas is less dirty than
coal, more expensive and used for
peak demand.
The Institute of Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)'s
demand analysis shows how China's
coal demand could surprise people by
peaking in 2016 and then decline gradually thereafter, driven by efficiency measures, increased renewables, hydro, gas and nuclear and tougher policies to cut air pollution.
The implication is that Chinese carbon dioxide emissions may
peak before 2020, given that these emissions have historically tracked
coal demand so closely.
Analysts at Carbon Tracker found that no new
coal mines were needed in a 2C world and oil
demand should
peak by 2020.
The electricity from the
coal - fired power plant will be utilized during the high
peak demand periods of the summer season to ensure security of supply at a reasonable cost.
The operating cost of
coal could be higher than the LCOE of onshore wind by 2024 and solar PV by 2027, while battery storage and
demand response increasingly provide auxiliary services and
peak shaving.
The
coal sector faces a structural shift, with the threat of
peak coal demand in China looming ever closer, which would weaken prices, reduce revenues and devalue existing assets.
With
demand understandably
peaking, other sources, such as
coal and gas, had to fill the gap.
The clear direction of travel for
coal consumption is underscored by the IEA's 2016 World Energy Outlook that brought forward the
peak for thermal
coal demand in China by 17 years in its New Policies Scenario - recognising
demand peaked in 2013 as opposed to 2030.
Coal is not built at all, but gas enjoys a boom in the middle of next decade to also cope with summer
peak demand, and to replace 6.2 GW of retired capacity.
Other provisions in the act — such as tax incentives that encourage the adoption of energy - efficient technologies, a shift to more combined heat and power generation, and the adoption of real - time pricing of electricity (a measure that will discourage optional electricity use during
peak demand periods)-- would cut electricity
demand enough to avoid building an additional 37
coal - fired power plants.
Why is CO2 still accelerating, if emissions had flattened in recent years (2013 - 2017), with, among other things, a tentative
peak coal (
demand) in China in 2013?
By virtue of
Peak Oil having been passed (where supply can not raise in response to
demand) and
coal being a terrible source of energy.
There are not any valid technical reasons why we can not build a national grid connecting wind and solar power generation to replace all existing
coal fired generation using OCGT as back - up and for extreme
peak demand.
But does nt this argument also apply to replacing
coal fired power with nuclear and NG back - up for extreme
peak demand?
To follow the variable
demand the power producers use a variety of «building blocks» from steady running constant load units (Nuclear, Hydroelectric) to slow load - following power plants (Gas &
Coal boilers) to rapid start high
demand units (Combined Cycle Gas Units) to
peaking units (Gas & Diesel generators).
In fact, a counter-analysis submitted to the MPSC clearly showed that a combination of energy efficiency,
demand response to reduce
peak demand, and renewable energy could replace DTE's retiring
coal plants for less money, less pollution, and more jobs.T
For example, on January 7, 2018, a
peak winter
demand day, PJM reported 8,096 MW of natural gas plant outages, 6,935 MW of
coal outages, 5,913 MW of natural gas supply outages, and 2,807 MW of «other» outages (which includes wind, solar, hydro, and methane units).
At this time of high
demand, gas - and
coal - fired plants used to be able to achieve high returns but with solar power production also
peaking around noon, conventional power plants lost this important advantage.