The coalition vote share would have fallen, with both parties losing seats.
Not exact matches
The election result was surprising to political analysts as it saw the Lega party overtake Forza Italia, its center - right
coalition partner, in terms of
vote share giving it more influence in the
coalition and potentially at a national level.
Matteo Salvini has no interest in abandoning a
coalition that keeps his
share of the
vote slightly ahead of Five Star's.
In Italy, regional elections in Sicily saw a
coalition of center - right parties gain the largest
share of the
vote, ahead of the populist Five Star Movement.
Ultimately therefore the decision to extend
voting rights to younger people will depend on both whether Labour wins the next election and crucially whether the party sees it as advantageous to increase its
vote share slightly at the expense of becoming more reliant on a
coalition of disparate interests.
Such a composition worries many Social Democrats given the last experience with a
coalition in 2009 when the SPD
vote share shrank by 12.2 per cent.
Secondly, it was perfectly possible to broadly predict the
shares of the
vote, and that is why a threshold was chosen well over any likely two - party
coalition in a four - party plus election.
I think, if the LibCon
coalition doesn't happen, Labour will not want to
share opposition duties with the Libs, and instead will play the «
vote Labour to get rid of the Tories» card to death in October, crushing the Libs.
For those living in constituencies where Labour and the Liberal Democrats are expected to
share first and second place, tactical
voting by Conservative supporters in favour of the Lib Dems increases the chances that another Con - Lib
coalition would have a majority.
The Conservatives» remarkable success in converting
coalition into majority government is down to two factors: this was the first governing party to increase its
vote share after a full term in office for more than a century and it succeeded in concentrating that
vote increase in the seats where it counted.
But this alone would only take the party back to the
vote share that took it into
coalition.
Others may
vote Liberal Democrat even if it's a hopeless cause locally, because they'll want to boost Nick Clegg's
share of the national
vote to boost his moral authority in any
coalition talks.
Professor Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart have calculated the
share of parliamentary
votes in which a government MP rebelled: on this measure, every year of the
coalition has seen more revolt than any year of the Major government of 1992 - 97, which was itself a record holder.
After leading the party through the second Holyrood elections in 2003 Elections, again winning 17 MSPs but with a higher
share of the
vote, he led the party into a second
coalition with Labour.
The 2014 Local Elections saw a Labour Party — which was part of a
coalition government with Fine Gael — fare poorly, with its national
share of the
vote dropping to just over seven percent and with its position as the leading left wing party being usurped by a major contender for this position, namely Sinn Fein.
The 1985 Local Elections saw a Labour Party — which was part of a
coalition government with Fine Gael — fare poorly, with its national
share of the
vote dropping to just over seven percent and with its position as the leading left wing party being usurped by a major contender for this position, namely the Workers Party.
A falling
share of the
vote for the main parties means a rising chance of
coalitions.
The Cabinet Office did not want to comment, but officials pointed out that the
coalition agreement states that until Lords reform passes: «Lords appointments will be made with the objective of creating a second chamber reflective of the
share of the
vote secured by the political parties in the last general election.»
«The truth is, Eric Schneiderman is a father and leading victims advocate who has
voted for many civil confinement bills, but with this particular one, Eric
shared the concerns of major organizations like the NYC Bar Association and the Downstate Crime Victims
Coalition, who all feared the bill was too broadly written and might be misapplied.
The Liberal Democrats, who were in
coalition with the Conservatives at the time; lost ten of their eleven seats they were defending and won just 6.6 % of the
vote share nationally and won just 4 council areas.
Both parties» ministers
shared collective responsibility for the government's positions, although the
coalition agreement detailed several issues on which the parties agreed to differ; the Liberal Democrats abstained from
voting in such cases.
The Lib Dems would be the major winners if a form of proportional representation (PR) were to be used: not only would they likely double the number of seats they would win for the same
share of the
vote, but they would also be the probable
coalition partner for both other major parties for the foreseeable future.
The
Coalition Agreement said that pending reform of the Lords «appointments will be made with the objective of creating a second chamber that is reflective of the
share of the
vote secured by the political parties in the last general election».
Instead it was the Tory
share of the
vote that collapsed by more than half, triggering right - wing protests over Mr Cameron's softly - softly approach to his
coalition partners.
Based on the results, the BBC's projected national
vote share puts the Lib Dems on 16 % - an improvement on the latter days of the
coalition government between 2013 and 2015, but lower than its estimated performance in last year's county council elections.
Evidence from John Curtice at Strathclyde University shows that the decline in the number of marginal seats and the reduced
share of the
vote for the two main parties means
coalition government is now much more likely in the future.
BBC polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice added: «It is thus far from clear that the party has secured a marked revival in its overall performance this year, and its projected
share is certainly well down on the 25 % or so of the
vote that was routine for the party in local elections held before the formation of the
coalition in 2010.»
How this translates into seats or a
coalition is unclear but based on our numbers we'd put the Conservatives ahead of Labour on
vote share but the two parties within 10 seats of each other in the new House of Commons.
There is even the possibility that Labour could perform poorly in the national
vote but come first in the
share of seats or win enough seats to allow Brown to form a
coalition with the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems will be nowhere close to winning and I wouldn't be shocked if their
vote share flat lines or even falls as a large chunk of the 19 % they got last time were loaned tactical
votes from the Tories due to the
coalition my
vote included.