Contemporary changes in the distribution and species composition of Northwest Atlantic living marine resources are already evident, but existing projections are based on warming scenarios from
coarse resolution models.
Model results don't depend critically on resolution — the climate sensitivity of the models is not a function of this in any obvious way, and the patterns of warming seen in
coarse resolution models from the 1980s are very similar to those from AR4 or the upcoming AR5 (~ 50 times more horizontal grid points).
The global climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are used to project global and regional climate change, are
coarse resolution models based on a roughly 100 - kilometer or 62 - mile grid, to simulate ocean and atmospheric dynamics.
Previous studies tend to underestimate such connections as simulated land - atmosphere interaction is also resolution - dependent, which means that the signals for changes in small - scale land use are likely to be much weaker in
a coarse resolution model,» says Minchao Wu.
The aim of increasing resolution in AGCMs is generally to improve the simulation of surface climatology compared to
coarser resolution models (Cubash et al., 1995).
This study is a clear shot across the bow against some previous research showing higher potential rates of oceanic sequestration, all of which used
coarser resolution models that may not have accurately simulated critical variables, including particle circulation.
Not exact matches
To overcome this issue, Orellana and her colleagues used several low
resolution proteins
models called
coarse - grained
models, which greatly simplify the structure of a protein.
For much of the global ocean the
coarser resolution is okay, but when you are studying a unique location like the Gulf of Maine, with its complex bathymetry of deep basins, channels, and shallow banks combined with its location near the intersection of two major ocean current systems, the output from the
coarser models can be misleading.»
But there, challenges also arise, as
models that simulate changing climate at a global scale do so at relatively
coarse resolution, of around hundreds of kilometers, while hurricanes require
resolutions of a few kilometers.
Unfortunately, many of these cloud properties must be estimated through parameterization, a technique used to represent complex small - scale systems, because climate
model resolution is too
coarse to resolve small - scale cloud features.
The researchers will then code the approach so it can be used in
coarse -
resolution global climate
models.
Global aerosol
models are similar to regional aerosol
models, but with a
coarser resolution, a broader geographic area, and a longer time span.
But then the effective heat capacity, the surface temperature, depends on the rate of mixing of the ocean water and I have presented evidence from a number of different ways that
models tend to be too diffusive because of numerical reasons and
coarse resolution and wave parameter rise, motions in the ocean.
GCMs tend to be too
coarse to resolve cyclones, but high -
resolution regional
models for storm studies exist.
The main adaptation is that climate -
model GCMs have a
coarser «grid
resolution» that allows them to be run for a large number of
model - years with the computers available.
Unfortunately, the figure also confirms that the spatial
resolution of theoutput from the GCMs used in the Mediterranean study is too
coarse for constructing detailed regional scenarios.To develop more detailed regional scenarios, modelers can combine the GCM results with output from statistical
models.3 This is done by constructing a statistical
model to explain the observed temperature or precipitation at a meteorological station in terms of a range of regionally - averaged climate variables.
Because most AOGCMs have
coarse resolution and large - scale systematic errors, and extreme events tend to be short lived and have smaller spatial scales, it is somewhat surprising how well the
models simulate the statistics of extreme events in the current climate, including the trends during the 20th century (see Chapter 9 for more detail).
«Most of the
models we use have
coarse resolution,» says CSIRO's Ming Feng, WA - based oceanographer and paper co-author.
Finally, simulations having finer spatial detail (i.e., «downscaled» climate
model projections) do not necessarily have greater accuracy than
coarser -
resolution simulations; they add contextual detail related to factors such as regional topography and coastlines but may still retain the same basic climatic features simulated at larger scales.
With respect to hurricane intensity, there are observed trends indicating this and
model results predicting this, and while there are problems in each (data problems with hurricanes,
coarse resolution in global
models, etc.), theoretical arguments also make clear that there will be more energy and water vapor available in the atmosphere to cause more intense hurricanes, so a very strong case can be made for this happening.
The researchers chose to tackle the region in part because previous,
coarser -
resolution models had shown that this area would be drying out, a prediction that has been borne out in the droughts and wildfires of recent years.
Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Hirofumi Tomita and their colleagues from the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science reveal that in order to realistically simulate the critical features of cloud convection,
models will ultimately need to be run at a grid
resolution no
coarser than 2 kilometers.
It contains a suite of routines for downscaling
coarse scale global climate
model (GCM) output to a fine spatial
resolution.
Moreover, the
coarse resolution of NWP
models limits the interpretation and the description of the atmospheric surface features.
LOCA downscaling estimates finer - scale climate detail from a
coarse -
resolution global
model using a new high -
resolution historical observation dataset developed by researchers at the University of Colorado.
While regional climate downscaling yields higher spatial
resolution, the downscaling is strongly dependent on the lateral boundary conditions and the methods used to constrain the regional climate
model variables to the
coarser spatial scale information from the parent global
models.
«Changes in extreme wind conditions related to small scale hurricane - type storms can not be skillfully detected in
models that have a
resolution to [o]
coarse to resolve th [ese] storms»
* Changes in extreme wind conditions related to small scale hurricane - type storms can not be skillfully detected in
models that have a
resolution to
coarse to resolve this storms.
Global climate
models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their
coarse horizontal
resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes.
A comparison to observations (gauge and radar data) shows that the high -
resolution (3 km)
model generates better rainfall distributions on time scales from monthly to hourly than the
coarse -
resolution (9 km)
model, especially along the west slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental.
The intent of downscaling is to achieve accurate, higher spatial
resolution of weather and other components of the climate system than is achievable with the
coarser spatial
resolution global
model.
The ClimDown R package publishes the routines and techniques of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) for downscaling
coarse scale Global Climate
Models (GCMs) to fine scale spatial
resolution.
For this purpose,
coarser model resolution is adequate since the advective transports of energy (latent and sensible heat, geopotential energy), which are an order of magnitude larger than the radiative terms, must by definition globally add to zero.
The results from these
models must still be treated with caution as they can not capture the full complexity of these structures, due in part to the
coarse resolution in both the atmosphere and oceans of the majority of the
models used (Chapter 8).
Analyses of tide gauge and altimetry data by Vinogradov and Ponte (2011), which indicated the presence of considerably small spatial scale variability in annual mean sea level over many coastal regions, are an important factor for understanding the uncertainties in regional sea - level simulations and projections at sub-decadal time scales in
coarse -
resolution climate
models that are also discussed in Chapter 13.
To estimate the uncertainty range (2σ) for mean tropical SST cooling, we consider the error contributions from (a) large - scale patterns in the ocean data temperature field, which hamper a direct comparison with a
coarse -
resolution model, and (b) the statistical error for each reconstructed paleo - temperature value.
Coarser resolution results from four of the CMIP3
models were used as the boundary conditions for the NARCCAP regional climate
model studies, with each of the regional
models doing analyses with boundary conditions from two of the CMIP3
models.
If the points are very far away from each other the
model is said to have
coarse resolution and the forecasts is only representative of very large areas, and may not be exactly the weather where you may be located.
Given the
coarse resolution of global climate
models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local - scale processes such as precipitation.
Where
modelled consequences clearly don't match observations the differences can be used to explore what's missing or not quite right — perhaps the
modelled elevation of land in certain areas is not quite right, causing a difference in the flow of wind currents, or maybe the grid
resolution of the
model is too
coarse for certain features to properly resolve.
The second part of the dissertation analyzes dust emission in an atmospheric general circulation
model (AGCM), where realistic simulation is inhibited by the
model's
coarse resolution compared to the scale of the circulations observed to mobilize dust.
The spatial
resolution of current global climate
models, roughly 200 km, is too
coarse to simulate the impact of global change on most individual river basins.
Such
models generally have a
resolution of about 1 — 3 ° in latitude and longitude — too
coarse to offer much guidance to people.
However, global
model projections have
coarse resolution, with grid cell sizes of 200 × 200 km or more, reflecting limitations of the ocean GCM component of global coupled climate and ocean circulation — biogeochemical
models.
In this case, the higher
resolution model shows a somewhat larger transient reduction in MOC strength in a Greenland hosing experiment than the
coarser model does.
Until we figure out how to do this on the weekly to seasonal time scales, trying to infer extreme events from
coarse resolution climate
models with insufficient number of ensemble members is like voodoo.
We know this from «downscaling» studies made by using high -
resolution regional climate
models to add local detail to larger - scale changes derived from
coarser -
resolution global
models.
Most climate
models available to scientists like Emanuel are too
coarse in
resolution to simulate the formation of hurricanes.
Reference solutions from multiple
models define a range of uncertainty that is the target for
coarser resolution simulations.
«The latest addition is a variable
resolution UK
model (UKV) which has a high
resolution inner domain (1.5 km grid boxes) over the area of forecast interest, separated from a
coarser grid (4 km) near the boundaries by a variable
resolution transition zone.