Even though we will continue to see
cold outbreaks in a warming world, the trend in the vast majority of the cities analyzed shows that these extreme cold nights are happening less often.
A burst of widely publicized research over the past decade found that the depleted Arctic sea ice could be part of a chain of events weakening the stratospheric polar vortex and hiking the risk
of cold outbreaks in northern midlatitudes.
A reinforcing shot of bitter, Arctic air will soon prolong the long - lived
cold outbreak across the Plains, Midwest, South and East into the end of this week, likely shattering more daily records and sending wind chills to dangerously cold levels.
«
Cold outbreaks like this are getting warmer (less frequent) due to global warming, but cold waves still occur somewhere in North America almost every winter.»
A new study led by the Georgia Institute of Technology provides further evidence of a relationship between melting ice in the Arctic regions and
widespread cold outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere.
We also increasingly recognized that loss of Arctic sea ice affects Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, including
severe cold outbreaks and storm tracks.
A number of media outlets tried to link this
recent cold outbreak with a wavier jet stream that is possibly caused by the reduction in temperature difference between a much warmer Arctic, which is heating up rapidly due to global warming, and the lower parts of the world.
To say hurricane Katrina was an indication of climate change is no more correct than saying the
current cold outbreak is evidence against climate change — I mean, that's weather — but it does influence people.
[Update, Jan. 12, 10:33 a.m. For a helpful dose of clarity, read Tom Henry's fine Toledo Blade article clarifying what's known and unknown about
such cold outbreaks in the context of global warming.]
How's that 2007 ″ very likely» IPCC prediction for «
fewer cold outbreaks in winter» working out lately?
Many of those same states are bearing the brunt of the
ongoing cold outbreak, but had the climate not warmed so much during the past few decades, it's possible that this event would be even colder in those areas.
The long - term trend (Figure 7) has been one of a more positive AO (stronger zonal winds around the Arctic), which indicates less likelihood
of cold outbreaks, but the two winters in question were extreme departures from this trend.
Cold outbreaks like this are getting warmer (less frequent) due to global warming, but cold waves still occur somewhere in North America almost every winter.
So, the most recent science shows 1) no observed relationship between global warming and winter severe weather outbreaks and 2) future «polar vortex» -
associated cold outbreaks are projected to mollify — yet the White House prepares a special video proclaiming the opposite with the intent to spread climate alarm.
I am aware of some German work that suggests
the cold outbreak pattern might somehow be stimulated by reduced Arctic Sea Ice.
But I need to add a caveat: the connection between Arctic melting and
cold outbreaks may not be simple or reliable.
It's important to note that many of
the cold outbreaks in the Northeast originate in the upper Midwest, so if they are milder, that could correlate to a bit milder winter for the Northeast, as well.
Dynamically, all they take to occur is
a cold outbreak.