At a price - to - earnings ratio of 5, the company should do well, provided commodity prices don't collapse.
Commodity prices do play a role.
In the days to come the Fed will have to prove that a new set of tools for managing interest rates will work as expected; see how higher U.S. rates affect domestic and global financial conditions; and hope that weak world demand and
commodity prices do not lead to an overall bout of deflation and force the Fed to reverse course.
Not exact matches
«We
do not see an imminent turning point in
commodity prices and thus forecast further negative repercussions on the Canadian economy next year,» Sebastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities in Montreal, said in an analysis of the Bank of Canada's latest policy statement.
Can Canada's manufacturing sector once again generate major growth for the economy as it
did in the decades before oil and other
commodity prices surged to record highs?
If there's a silver lining, the Bank of Canada's
commodity price index appear to have levelled off since March, so the GDI news in 2015Q2 doesn't look like it will be as bad as it was in 2015Q1.
Rosenberg doesn't want to make a projection for oil, but, he says,
commodity prices are 75 % correlated with the Chinese stock market.
What we didn't anticipate was that other factors, including bad weather and other hiccups in
commodities markets, would drive up the
price of food in much of the U.S., increasing restaurants» costs at a time when they couldn't easily pass those costs through to budget - conscious diners.
When
commodities prices plummeted, so
did the fortunes of businesses that dealt in them — including Pennzoil, which Pate joined in 1976.
«In fact one reason why we set up the business in 1929 is [because] tea is one of the global
commodities that didn't come under big
pricing pressure.
«A modern economist most likely would have identified the
price rise in 1936 and 1937 as a temporary upswing in
commodity prices that
did not signal a significant increase in overall inflation,» Eggertsson writes.
And then your second point on
commodity pricing, so you're right, corn's
done a big run - up in the last week, $ 6.50 corn and December
priced at $ 6.50.
Commerzbank's head of
commodity research Eugen Weinberg said oil market fundamentals «
do not justify the current
price, but unfortunately the market is focusing more on the politics and ignoring some of the warning signs, especially the hike in U.S. oil production.»
Even if we don't see outsized
price increases in
commodities, from a total return perspective,
commodity returns will benefit from a change to positive roll yields based on the reshaping and structuring of the fundamental market in
commodities.
They clearly
did invalidate the old models over the next few years as credit misallocation accelerated, along with the depth and direction of now - unprecedented imbalances and highly self - reinforcing
price changes in
commodities, real estate, stock markets, and other variables — what George Soros might have cited as extreme cases of reflexivity.
The terms of trade is influenced by the exchange rate because a rise in the value of a country's currency lowers the domestic
prices for its imports but
does not directly affect the
commodities it produces (i.e. its exports).
Indeed, one reason
commodity prices across the board are so high is that producers
did not anticipate the persistent nature of the stronger demand.
Compared with previous episodes of booming
commodity prices, a floating currency, a sound but flexible medium - term framework for monetary policy and a flexible labour market mean we are
doing much better this time than in the mid 1970s or early 1950s.
Outside of
commodity prices, most global indicators and surveys are still in expansion territory, with services sectors generally
doing better than manufacturing ones.
Further mortgage writedowns, defaults and increased credit difficulties remain a concern, as
does commodity price weakness (not necessarily immediate, but soon enough) and the prospect of earnings risk and layoffs driven by cost reductions.
«Of the other BRICS,
commodity - driven countries like Russia and Brazil
did not diversify their economies fast enough while oil
prices rode high,» observes Lau.
This means, to return to iron, if you understood China as a growth «system», with its own logic, its liquidity channels, its institutional distortions, its balance sheets that embedded pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical tendencies, etc. you would have known that once the process started, rebalancing was going to cause iron ore
prices (and
prices of other hard
commodities) to collapse, and I stressed, as I often
do, that I
did not think the word «collapse» was overly dramatic.
They warned that
commodity - exporting countries that
did not hedge their bets would find themselves in serious trouble when
commodity prices collapsed.
When growth slows, so
do most revenues, real estate
prices, and demand for
commodities.
The second cyclical factor that has had a major impact on our exports and business investment is the protracted recovery of the US economy — the slowest in the postwar period.10 When oil and other
commodity prices rose in the years before the 2014 oil
price shock, so
did our dollar, making our non-
commodity exports to the United States less competitive and reinforcing the ongoing shift from manufacturing to services.
The Fed didn't raise rates in the first half of the year, and concerns about the
commodity price slump seem to have eased and sowed some seeds of stability; low
commodity prices have been stimulating demand in certain areas.
However, I
do think the downside is limited from these depressed
prices as the soft
commodities remain weak.
The fundamentals behind a company often don't seem to matter when
commodity prices are making big moves.
You can check the previous posts about What are stocks and how to value them, How
does Currency Trading Work, How are Currencies Traded, Investing in
Commodities, What Fundamentals Affect
Commodity Prices, What are ETF's, What are Options, How are Options»
Prices Structured, Investing for Beginners Part 2 — Different Investment Strategies, When
does Buy and Hold not Work, An Unconventional Approach to Buy and Hold, An Unconventional Approach to Buy and Hold Part 2, How the Investment Advisor Game is Played, An Introduction Into «Secular Investing», Don't Short When it Comes to Secular Investing, An Introduction into Trend Following, An Introduction into Technical Indicators, When
does Trend Following Not Work, Risk Management for Trend Followers, An Introduction to Contrarian Investing, Using Oscillators for Contrarian Investing, Using Magnitude Extreme vs. Time Extreme, Contrarian Investing can be Used for Different Time Frames
While a drilling delay helped drive the decision to slow down, Pioneer said it could have reaccelerated but decided against
doing so «in light of the current
commodity price environment.»
To be clear, however, just because a metal's
price increases
does not mean the share
prices of companies that explore for, develop, or produce that
commodity will follow suit.
Bottom line: Enbridge Inc. (ENB) is the largest energy infrastructure company in North America, with most of its cash flow supported by long - term commercial agreements that don't depend on
commodity pricing.
What's fantastic about Enbridge (and companies like it) is the fact that it doesn't rely very much on the
pricing of
commodities like natural gas, which can obviously be quite volatile.
If growth in America is accelerating, which it seems to be, and any remaining slack in the labor markets is disappearing — and wages start going up, as
do commodity prices — then it is not an unreasonable possibility that inflation could go higher than people might expect.
Cocoa
prices are now trading below their 20 - day but still far above their 100 - day moving average as the trend is mixed as
prices topped out on April 2nd around 2647 as the hot and dry weather conditions still
do persist in West Africa, but the
commodity markets, in general, are drifting lower due to the fact of the possible trade war with China.
I
did really well in the rebound, especially when
commodity prices shot up over the two years to early 2010.
If governments and central banks are intensely working to levitate bonds, fiat currencies, and stock markets, and are working equally intensely to suppress
commodity prices, what
do they have to hide?
«I don't think (global growth) has been factored into
commodity prices,» he said.
This year
prices plummeted — and so
did demand for
commodity - related hedging.
When
commodity prices started to drop several years ago, I thought that Canada must get into trouble soon but similar to Australia, the economy seems to
do quite well.
I oftentimes field questions about where I think
commodity prices are going, but, of course, I don't have a crystal ball.
The reason it didn't buckle sooner is that the
commodity price trend tends to overwhelm all other influences on the A$'s trend.
Tax cuts always effect assets
prices, regulations are estimated to account for up to 35 % of building new construction costs for homes in some locations and though federal deregulation may not impact local regulations as much it
does have a multiplier effect on the economy just like a tax cut
does and anticipation of an infrastructure plan the scale of this administration's, though it hasn't been passed, would also have an anticipatory effect on leading indicators like stocks and other
commodities that raise costs, which we have already seen.
Part of the reason that the
price of a
commodity futures contract is not a prediction of the future
price of the
commodity is that many of the largest participants in the futures markets
do not buy / sell futures contracts based on a forecast of what's going to happen to the
price.
The buyer
did this to raise the
price of the stock or
commodity at will.
They might
do well in a speculative
commodity rush like 2011 (in terms of share
prices)-- but loss making businesses are loss making businesses.
While Devon's reaction to the 2011 say - on - pay provides positive evidence that boards can and
do respond effectively to a negative vote, its failure to alter its pay programs prior to that point as natural gas
prices sank suggests that owners of companies whose fortunes are closely tied to
commodity prices should be wary of lax compensation structures.
We believe, however, that Nestlé's management can raise
prices, as it has
done in the past, and gradually pass on inflated
commodity prices to consumers.
However, with drillers still struggling through more than a year - long rout in
commodity prices, Heymann said he
does not expect end - market demand for GE products to pick up until perhaps 2017.
Don't look now, but
commodities continue to lead the asset class scoreboard in 2018, as rising crude
prices and a bounce in the US Dollar Index lead the ch...