Much of that increase can be attributed to the spike in
commodity prices over that 10 - year period, helping resource - rich regions like Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador post increases twice or three times the national average.
Since iron ore has been about 90 % of the companies profits over the last decade, the decline in
commodity prices over the last year have significantly hurt the companies earnings.
The global pick - up in demand and activity has generated strong upward pressure on a range of
commodity prices over recent months, notably for oil, gold, base metals and a number of rural commodities.
In fact as I started writing more about the outlook for hard
commodity prices over the next year, I adjusted my outlook downwards and proposed that iron ore prices would fall below $ 50 a ton before the end of the decade.
With that discussion, you can see already, I expect, the outlines of the way Australian policy - makers have analysed and reacted to the trends in
commodity prices over recent years.
76 % of respondents were moderately to extremely concerned over the lack of investment capital moving into the industry, whereas only 43 % were moderately to extremely concerned with the volatility
commodities prices over the next two years.
The share price has been disappointingly unresponsive to both the improved macroeconomic environment (commodity pricing) and improvements in the operating business; investors seem to be stuck looking backwards at stock performance and
commodity pricing over the past 4 or 5 years.
Not exact matches
Thanks to that and falling demand for the
commodity,
prices have dropped by about 20 %
over the last 12 months.
In the
commodities space, oil
prices are headed for their eighth consecutive week of falls on Friday, the longest losing streak since 1986, according to Reuters, after the news of a sharp drop in Chinese manufacturing increased worries
over the health of the world's biggest energy consumer.
The firm believes the
commodity supercycle is
over, and that
commodity prices will no longer move as one.
However, improving
commodities prices in 2016 will help restore confidence and Canada will get back on track to sustainable growth
over the long term.
When the Shanghai composite index rebounds — it's down about 16 %
over the past 12 months — and signals that the worst of the slowdown is
over,
commodity prices «will be on more of a decisive upward trend.»
According to the survey, the top concerns of small business owners
over the next year are the effectiveness of government leaders,
commodities prices, healthcare costs, recovery of consumer spending and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
«
Over the last six to nine months, there have been times we actually liked Russian markets on the back of recovering
commodities and oil
prices,» he told CNBC's Squawk Box on Tuesday.
In July, when the Bank of Canada cut its policy to its current setting of 0.5 %, policy makers expressed concern
over weak non-energy exports and a deep contraction in business investment brought on by the collapse of
commodity prices.
The rollercoaster ride in oil
prices over the past three years may be old hat to investors familiar with the
commodity's historical sensitivity to macro events (see chart below), but oil
price volatility is by no means endemic and several factors are now lining up to suggest a calmer period for crude may lie ahead.
As I've said that the 10 yr bond crossed
over 3.0 % means the US$ will be going to be weaker and weaker further and further by the 1st half of 2020 yr:) Also, the
commodity price esp WTI will be going up to the level of 70 - 80 $ no later than 1st half of May (at the earliest), or no later than 2nd week of June, and then it will be in the range to the end of Trump Era:)
Overall, the global outlook has weakened further
over the last six months — exacerbated by China's relative slowdown, lower
commodity prices, and the prospect of financial tightening for many countries.
Overall, inflation expectations are marginally higher than in the winter survey: higher
commodity prices and expected inflationary pressures in the United States are viewed as contributing to domestic inflation
over the next two years.
Over the past six months, the
prices of most
commodities have increased, although it is the
prices of iron ore and coking coal that have risen particularly strongly.
They clearly did invalidate the old models
over the next few years as credit misallocation accelerated, along with the depth and direction of now - unprecedented imbalances and highly self - reinforcing
price changes in
commodities, real estate, stock markets, and other variables — what George Soros might have cited as extreme cases of reflexivity.
Sven Eenmaa, who covers the stock for Stifel, said that while savings on lighting projects from lower
commodity prices will get passed on to consumers
over time, Acuity Brands should see a near - term boost.
Most notable so far has been the boom in the resource sector, with
commodity prices and hence Australia's terms of trade rising to historically high levels
over a number of years.
While a number of simple measures of valuation have also been useful
over the years, even metrics such as
price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins in cyclical and
commodity - oriented industries.
Although the adjustment has been difficult, it has occurred
over a longer period of time than the boom in
commodity prices and, in general, Canada has not lost ground relative to other advanced economies.
But [the increase in
commodity prices] is just the beginning of the story, accounting for about one - half of the appreciation of our currency
over the past decade.
Following a January rally, the global
commodities complex underwent declines in February before partially recovering in March; for the first quarter as a whole, the benchmark Thomson Reuters CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB) gained 0.8 % on a
price - only basis.1 Among the 19 component
commodities tracked by the CRB, advancers had a slight edge
over decliners, buoyed by growth in global economies and weakness in the trade - weighted US dollar, which retreated 2.1 %, according to the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) US Dollar Index.1 Aside from robust gains for a host of agricultural products, oil and gold were also among the
commodity winners.
I expect that hard
commodity prices will fall sharply
over the next two to three years, but to the extent that
prices rise in the short term, as they have in the past three months, it is likely to reflect additional investment growth in China.
Our second chart, above at left, shows the path of
commodity prices and the Canadian - U.S. exchange rate
over the past 10 years.
Overall inflation has risen
over the past two years, pushed up primarily by higher
prices for energy and other
commodities and industrial inputs.
Higher crude US: CLK8 and
commodity prices CRB, +0.42 % have been the principal driver of the short - term jump in the 10 - year break - even rate, the bond market's assessment for inflation
over the next 10 years, to 2.18 %.
A key element in this shift is China; the value of Chinese exports to Canada tripled
over this period and Canadian exports to China, while still small relative to exports to the US, have grown steadily in value driven by
commodity exports which have been buoyed by high
prices and huge demand in China for key Canadian exports such as minerals (nickel, coking coal, potash, copper and iron ore), pulp and lumber.
While the appreciation of the Australian dollar
over the past year or so has restrained
commodity prices in Australian dollar terms, they remain close to their average of the past decade.
I did really well in the rebound, especially when
commodity prices shot up
over the two years to early 2010.
The
prices of other resource
commodities increased on average by 5.8 per cent
over the three months to April, driven by increases in the
prices of alumina, coal and iron ore.
Export
prices in SDR terms have risen sharply
over the past two years, buoyed by the steep rise in global
commodity prices, while import
prices have remained broadly flat, reflecting competitive pressures in global manufacturing.
Second, if
commodity prices fall — as they have
over the past year and a half — then consumers will have more money to spend on services, and the result will be lower goods
price inflation but higher service
price inflation.
Commodity prices have changed little on average over recent months and remain at high levels; the RBA Index of Commodity Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the
prices have changed little on average
over recent months and remain at high levels; the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the
Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms
over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher
over the year.
Upstream
price pressures have also been boosted by the rise in oil
prices, as well as the depreciation of the exchange rate and the increase in world
commodity prices; producer input and output
prices have increased more sharply
over the past six months than they have since the early 1990s.
This situation has put upward pressure on international
commodity prices, many of which have increased considerably
over this period, particularly in the resources sector, a trend that will benefit Australian exporters.
Domestic corporate goods
prices rose by 1.9 per cent
over the year to December — the fastest pace of growth since the early 1990s — largely reflecting the run - up in global
commodity prices.
Rural
commodity prices fell slightly
over the three months to April, after increasing strongly
over the second half of 2003.
Over time, the stronger global environment could also generate further upward pressure on
commodity prices and hence manufacturing costs, and on traded goods
prices more generally.
Growth in Australia's export volumes has remained weak
over the past year or so, despite strong growth in global demand and world
commodity prices, with total exports virtually unchanged from four years ago (Graph 31).
Prices of a range of other mineral
commodities have generally remained firm or increased further
over recent months.
After rising strongly
over the second half of 2003, the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices increased by 3.1 per cent in SDR terms
over the three months to April, to be 13 1/2 per cent above its trough in May 2003 (Table 11, Graph 49).
The decline in earnings
over the past year owes largely to a fall in Australian dollar
prices, as the appreciation of the Australian dollar has more than offset rising world
commodity prices evident since mid last year (see section on
commodity prices and the terms of trade below).
For the year, the TSX has lost just
over 11 per cent of its value, primarily as a result of a decline in key
commodities prices.
Price action is the behavior of price of a specific currency, commodity, stock or other trading instrument over a specified period of
Price action is the behavior of
price of a specific currency, commodity, stock or other trading instrument over a specified period of
price of a specific currency,
commodity, stock or other trading instrument
over a specified period of time.
Commodity prices have mostly risen
over recent months.