To assess their software, the team
compared model predictions with the characteristics of other known locations they had not fed into the computer.
We compare model predictions to the distributions of rotational periods measured for low mass stars belonging to star forming regions and young open clusters.
Comparing model predictions of GHG - induced warming with recent natural temperature fluctuations also indicates the potential scale of man - made climate change.Early modelling experiments focused on the total long - term change resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
As I believe was explained to Willis back when he did his analysis, if you want to
compare the model predictions to the real world, you can not recenter to the real world mean.
Robert C. Balling, Jr. gives a graph relevant to
comparing a model prediction with the actual record.
Not exact matches
Later, Marjorie collected data for the
model, and Tomas and I
compared the
model's
predictions.
The team, led by doctoral student Adam R. Burns, now a postdoctoral researcher at Stanford University,
compared what they found in the fish with
predictions from computer
modeling of microbial dynamics performed by co-author Elizabeth Miller of the META Center for Systems Biology.
As the first such collision to be positively identified, the August event provided the first opportunity to
compare predictions of the
models to actual observations.
The strength of this technique is that the
model is continuously fine - tuned — it
compares its
predictions against the real - world data and self - corrects in near - real time.
Comparing five state - of - the - art weather
prediction models, researchers found current
models can forecast both where and how much rainfall a tropical cyclone will produce up to two days in advance.
«When we first
compared the
predictions of our reconstructions with the mantle tomography
model we were amazed by how perfectly they aligned,» Associate Professor Schellart said.
Dozens of teams submitted 179
predictions based on state - of - the - art computational
models, and the organisers
compared them against the experimental results.
In
comparing their computational
predictions against the actual historical record provided by the Metaphor Map of English, researchers found that their
models correctly forecast about 75 percent of recorded metaphorical language mappings over the past millennium.
This image
compares the neural activation patterns between images from the participants» brains when reading «O eleitor foi ao protesto» (observed image) and the computational
model's
prediction for «The voter went to the protest» (predicted image).
Instead of looking for particular signatures, they wrote software that analyzes all the data and
compares them with
predictions of the so - called Standard
Model, which comprises the known set of laws of particle physics.
When
compared to standard weather
prediction modeling, Roebber's evolutionary methodology performs particularly well on longer - range forecasts and extreme events, when an accurate forecast is needed the most.
In particular, they hope to measure to within a few percentage points how quickly the Higgs decays into different combinations of more - familiar particles and
compare that with standard
model predictions.
When the expert
predictions were
compared with the real 2014 results, they were found to be no better than a naïve forecasting
model that assumes each team will replicate their previous year's performance.
It then
compares the actual behavior of its body with the generated
models to see which one made the best
predictions, taking the winning
model and seeding it into the action in each round.
After
comparing the historic data with the expert's
predictions, the program can then provide insights into the bias of the expert's own mental
models, according to the researchers.
The paleoclimate data, which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then
compared to similar records from other caves, ice cores, and sediment records as well as
model predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the future.
Another feature of the «Pinatubo effect» that mirrors the
predictions of the
models is the greater cooling of the interiors of continental landmasses
compared with other regions of the globe.
Two comments — One, the 2001
model predictions thus far have turned out to be quite accurate when
compared to real world climate changes.
We are excited to connect and
compare planet formation
models and their
predictions to exoplanet populations; we are looking for a postdoctoral researcher with expertise in planet formation, exoplanet population studies, and / or statistical assessment of exoplanet surveys,
Figure 1: The limit of the measured photon flux as a function of threshold energy
compared to
model predictions.
In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather
prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands» Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently
compared scientists who promote computer
models predicting future climate doom to unlicensed «software engineers.»
We also
compare our results with the
predictions of state - of - the - art population synthesis
models based on the gravitational instability (GI) formation scenario by Forgan & Rice (2013), with and without scattering.
Supplementary Fig. 36a shows the performance of the
model based on the TIN measure at the tissue level, while Supplementary Fig. 36b
compares the
predictions based on TIN with the
predictions based on gene expression at the individual level.
Here we report an analysis of Jupiter's even gravitational harmonics J4, J6, J8 and J10 as observed by Juno5 and
compared to the
predictions of interior
models.
Systems biology and bioinformatics analyses are employed to
compare research results from
model organisms with human aging to develop
models and
predictions for causative molecular mechanisms and circuits that influence human aging.
Offering support for their new perspective, the
predictions of the analytical
model are
compared with empirical measurements from two different sources and found to be in agreement.
Since the 1950s, social scientists have been
comparing the predictive abilities of traditional experts, and what are known as «statistical
prediction rules,» which are just simple
models.
So if you just took the relative change since 1999, not the absolute numbers as
compared to the red curve, their new
model would predict the same warming as a standard scenario run (i.e. the black one), which would hardly have been a reason to go to the worldwide media with a «pause in warming»
prediction.
p.s. To
compare to Vahrenholt's forecast, here's a comparison of earlier
model projections of global temperature for the IPCC (
prediction with the CMIP3
model ensemble used in the 4th IPCC assessment report, published in 2007) with the actual changes in temperature (the four colored curves).
Two comments — One, the 2001
model predictions thus far have turned out to be quite accurate when
compared to real world climate changes.
Also what about publishing how
modelled predictions from 5 or 10 years ago
compare with measured temperatures?
All
predictions (whether in a laboratory or natural setting) are based on such
models and it is only from
comparing predictions to observations that one progresses.
The researchers
compared predictions of 22 widely used climate «
models» — elaborate schematics that try to forecast how the global weather system will behave — with actual readings gathered by surface stations, weather balloons and orbiting satellites over the past three decades.
All in all the science of hurricanes does appear to be much more fun and interesting than the average climate change issue, as there is a debate, a «fight» between different hypothesis,
predictions compared to near - future observations, and all that does not always get pre-eminence in the exchanges about
models.
In reality, when we
compare apples to apples — El Niño years to El Niño years — we've seen more than 0.3 °C global surface warming over the past 18 years, which is in line with climate
model predictions.
Gavin Schmidt went nuts when I
compared 8 years of data with a
model prediction (and I even concluded that little could be said on that time scale).
The bad news is that as more is understood about global warming, and as we
compare what has happened to what was predicted by the average
models (from the actual science, not from popular sensationalized media), the earlier scientific
predictions have turned out to be too conservative, not as you say «too alarmist».
The selected projects address three topics: one project will build a testing framework giving industry and academia the ability to evaluate and
compare the performance of solar irradiance and solar power forecasting
models; four projects seek to improve solar irradiance
predictions; and three projects will examine how to integrate solar forecasting technologies with grid operators» energy management systems.
The thesis
predictions were
compared to
predictions made by the well - known Hubbert
model, which is based on a symmetrical production profile about a peak year.
The problem, of course, is that while these different versions of the
model might all match the historical data, they would in general generate different
predictions going forward — and sure enough, his calibrated
model produced terrible
predictions compared to the «reality» originally generated by the perfect
model.
Those can be
compared to
predictions of climate
models as Spencer has attempted.
The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the Alpine high mountain flora will lose on average 44 to 50 % of its current distribution area, a fairly moderate forecast as
compared to
predictions achieved from more traditional
modeling techniques.
Climate
models compare their
models in the same way people predicting peak oil
compare their
predictions.
Douglass et al officially pointed out the glaring deficiency in 2007 by
comparing tropospheric
predictions from the
models.
Summing up all the
predictions I know 20 years back or so, CO2 is running the «worst case» way while the temperature is following the «best case» way every single time the record could be
compared to what
models were predicting.