Hansen et al. (1981), «emerge» p. 957; another scientist who
compared temperature trends with a combination of CO2, emissions from volcanic eruptions, and supposed solar cycles, likewise got a good match, and used the cycles to predict that greenhouse warming would swamp other influences after about 2000.
The authors
compared temperature trends over four different time intervals, the 1900s, the first and second halves of the 1900s, and the last 30 years of the 1900s.
This gives us a relatively large set of stations which are similar enough that we can
compare the temperature trends of rural and urban stations.
Have students
compare the temperatures trends for the northern hemisphere (below; created by the Japanese Meteorological Society and published by the National Academy of Science in 1977) with the new global trends presented by NASA's Gavin Schmidt who argues 2014 was the warmest year on record.
As for UHI data, perhaps one could
compare the temperature trends of long - term, mature urban areas like NYC and downtown Chicago with more recent and rapidly developing urban sites like Phoenix / Scottsdale, Orlando FL, Las Vegas NV and Santa Fe NM., or the once rural suburbs of those mature UHI sites.
A cautious approach should be taken when
comparing temperature trends from multiple studies that do not use identical methods or when considering the selection of reference start date from a year exhibiting a temperature extreme.
I think that somebody already performed a short study of UHI in the US 48 by
comparing the temperature trends in the purely rural network, and in the major data sets.
The same jumping to (wrong) conclusions was made by others,
comparing temperature trends with the variability of the year by year increase of CO2: these have a quite good correlation, as there is a short term response of CO2 increase speed to temperature changes, but a only a small influence of temperature on the CO2 trend itself.
As such, it is an invaluable tool for quickly
comparing temperature trends over varying timeframes.
This we can measure by simply
comparing the temperature trends of true rural areas with urban areas.
Not exact matches
First, they
compared simulated and observed
temperature trends over all 15 - year periods since the start of the 20th century.
By
comparing the small oscillations in cosmic ray rate and
temperature with the overall
trends in both since 1955, Sloan and Wolfendale found that less than 14 percent of the global warming seen during this period could have been caused by solar activity.
2) Three years ago, I tried to get a handle on whether UHI was responsible for the recent warming
trend in most of the
temperature datasets by
comparing the
trends for the UAH / MSU 2LT channel and the Jones et al. surface data for some of the world's «empty places».
Figure 2: January
temperature trend (blue) over the past 31 years in Erfurt (316m elevation)
compared to CO2 concentrations (green).
«The observed pattern of warming,
comparing surface and atmospheric
temperature trends, doesn't show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming,» wrote lead author David Douglas, a climate expert from the University of Rochester, in New York state.
In April 2002, for example, their satellite
temperature trend was only 0.04 Â °C / decade,
compared with 0.17 + / - 0.06 Â °C / decade from surface measurements; however, in the years since the UAH
trend has roughly doubled to come more in line with other
trends.
At least try to remove El Nino from the
temperature trend before
comparing it to the multimodel mean.
Comparing the yearly and estimated
temperature, gives us a long term
temperature trend upward of about 0.3 deg.
Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface -
temperature trend show that the ocean above 300 m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300 m takes up significantly more,
compared with non-hiatus decades.
Finally, natural climatic variability is just random noise
compared to the loud - and - clear signal of the upward
trend in the curve of global
temperature, which now seems to have an accelerating characteristic.
But as we started to try to piece together the puzzle of what those data were telling us, they also were telling us about natural variations in
temperature in the past and how they
compared to the warming
trends of the past century.
I wonder what the increase in global mean surface
temperature is for the decade 1994 to end of year 2004 (thus, not counting Pinatubo) as
compared to the longer term
trend since 1880 or so.
The goal, the scientists say, is to
compare independent methods of gauging ice
trends from factors including sea
temperature, ice thickness and cycles of atmospheric pressure and winds around the Arctic.
The difference between ideal rural sites
compared to urban sites in
temperature trends has been very small:
Nick, So as a favour, could you modify the code to calculate the 4th root of
temperature,
trend that, and then
compare to the
temperature trend?
«The most hideously egregious data fabrication» «In comparison, Mann 08 uses initially questionable data which has not been calibrated to
temperature (tree rings), chops the end off of nearly every proxy and pastes fake
temperature data on the end as a replacement (I could have previously imagined) calibrates the fake data to
temperature using methods which amplify recent
trends compared to history and then throws away anything which doesn't fit his pre-determined conclusion.
The lower the CO2 rise / year
trend is
compared to
Temperature trend, the bigger biosphere.
If so, the difference to some degree reflect size of biomass: The higher the CO2 rise / year
trend is
compared to
Temperature trend, the smaller biosphere.
I prefer the
trend of the accumulated emissions, which is a near perfect fit for the observed accumulation in the atmosphere, above the
temperature trend which is not so perfect... See and
compare: with:
One last comparison graph, as a reference for discussion: Figure 10
compares the
trends from 1997 to 2012 of GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and UAH Lower Troposphere
Temperature anomalies.
The
trend difference means, that from 1979 to 2008 the CO2 - rise per year
compared to the global
temperatures has fallen 0,5 ppm / year, or the other way around: It now takes approx.
Basically, everyone is going to
compare their model to the surface
temperature trend, if it doesn't match, it won't be accepted by peer reviewers.
Animation 1
compares the GISS land surface air
temperature trends to UAH lower troposphere
temperature trends over land for the period of 1979 to 2012.
in southern ontario to show primarily two things: one is that summer
temperatures are not increasing, only winter
temperatures are increasing therefore it is not in fact getting warmer it is only getting less cold (there is no argument that the seasonally averaged
trend is rising); two is that the slight averaged rise is extremely small
compared to the daily and seasonal
temperature fluctuations.
Please note the shown baseline is 1951 - 1980 — so the actual global
temperature trend is already well above 1 degree Celsius
compared to the preindustrial climate and due to hemispherically skewed warming the northern hemisphere already breached 2 degrees last year.
Figure 12
compares the average U.S.
temperature trends when calculated using just the most rural stations to the
trends calculated using the most urban stations.
You're right that
comparing one El Niño to another using a difference from average
temperature would be invalid if the average
temperature «baseline» exhibited a long - term increasing or decreasing
trend over time.
The below graph comes from a new global
temperature trend study that
compares different established datasets for land and ocean
temperature.
Refusing to acknowledge (and actually defending) the statistical malpractice of
comparing an 8,000 - year long - term
trend line to a 50 - year snapshot — a scam that Rosenthal et al. (2013, 2017) employed to claim that ocean
temperatures (0 - 700 m) have changed more rapidly since the 1950s than at any time during the Holocene.
Comparing the current
trends of CO2 and
temperature, anything less than exceptionally rapid
temperature rise for the next 5 - 10 years will cause his own chart to become laughable.
The graph below (courtesy of Open Mind)
compares the global
temperature trend from before and after adjustments.
After students have graphed their own
temperature trends, have them
compare their results with the graph below illustrating how USHCN climate experts actually homogenize the data.
To appreciate the issues involved in
comparing estimates of surface and lower tropospheric
temperature trends, it is necessary to have at least a rudimentary understanding of these three kinds of measurements and the uncertainties inherent in each of them.
The linear
trend line is now at +1.06 °C, which is perhaps the best
temperature to
compare to paleoclimate
temperatures, because the latter are «centennially - smoothed,» i.e., the proxy measures of ancient
temperature typically have a resolution not better than 100 years.
On average the Dutch climate shows a clear warming
trend — but
compared to spring, summer and autumn, the winter shows somewhat better resilience — with a smaller increase of average
temperatures.
Teacher input: After students have graphed their own
temperature trends, have them
compare their results with the graph below illustrating how USHCN climate experts actually homogenize the data.
Dr Curry, the mean model surface
temperature trend estimate is ~ 0.20 C / decade
compared to Cowtan and Way ~ +0.17 C or GISS ~ +0.16 C (both attempting improved Arctic representation).
- in fig 4 i have
compared with
trend in US
temperature records: A perfect match!
These estimates were cited in the IPCC 4AR, and
compared to surface
temperature trends ranging from 0.15 to 0.18 °C per decade.
Contrary to another claim made by Betts, we are conversant with that research and have recently contributed to it by showing that climate models do accommodate recent
temperature trends when the phasing of natural internal variability is taken into account — as it must be in
comparing a projection to a single outcome.