Presented by: Scotia McLeod In this webinar sponsored by Scotia iTRADE, and presented by Scotia McLeod, the instructor will help demystify bonds by defining bond conventions,
comparing bond values, and taking a look at the Canadian yield curve expectations.
Not exact matches
Comparing them to a 30 - year Treasury
bond of 3 % (133 % yield ratio) and 1.9 % core inflation, their
value is evident.
Convertible
bonds, which are
bonds that may be exchanged for a specific amount of a company's stock at a future date, may be priced inefficiently
compared with the
value of a company's stock or its straight
bonds.
The default assumptions for
comparing the harvesting strategies are 60:40 equity
bonds, 30 year retirement and portfolios of
bonds in intermediate (not short) term treasuries and stock in 70 % total market and 10 % each in small company, small
value and large
value.
You can see that the
value of the
bond (specifically the price) varies very little over time
compared to stocks.
If you're buying a French
bond (payable in Francs, for example) remember that you're subjecting yourself to both «country risk» (the risk that the country of France decides not to pay off their debts) as well as currency risk (the risk that the Franc loses some
value compared to the dollar).
For example, from the market's high in October 2007 to its low in March 2009, a portfolio with 90 % in stocks and 10 % in
bonds would have lost about 45 % of its
value compared with a 29 % loss for a 60 - 40 stocks -
bonds mix (assuming no rebalancing).
Their yield is calculated by
comparing the
bond's purchase price and its future
value.
One reason that a
bond can be significantly less than face
value is because people are seeking better investments elsewhere, so for example if a
bond doesn't mature for another 10 years, that 20 % increase in face
value isn't very attractive when
compared to say leaving your money in the stock market for 10 years.
To
compare the two in the current market, and to convert older
bond prices to their
value in the current market, you can use a calculation called yield to maturity (YTM).
You say: «In terms of numbers, varying allocations according to P / E10 historically would have allowed us to increase the amount that we could withdraw SAFELY from 4.0 % to 5.0 % + (of the portfolio's initial
value plus inflation), when
compared to a fixed allocation of stocks and
bonds.»
Emerging market
bonds are also cheap
compared to their historical
values.
The authors calculated the average ending
values for a $ 1 million portfolio invested all at once in a mix of 60 % stocks and 40 %
bonds turned into $ 2,450,264 on average,
compared to $ 2,395,824 when dollar - cost averaged over the course of a year — a difference of more than $ 54,000.
The supporting rationale is that the moderately greater return of
bonds as
compared to cash helps minimize the impact of inflation, which starts to cause a more noticeable erosion of your portfolio's real
value when compounded over more than a few years.
Usually on a fixed - coupon
bond (e.g. Government
bond) the interest rate is fixed for a given period (say 10 years), and if market rates rise the face
value of the
bond falls, to compensate for the lower return a new buyer would get,
compared to the market interest rate.
Compared to commercial credit ratings, Maximum Loss compares the loss potential of a security to its trading value, resulting in limited exposure to bonds trading expensively compared to their potential losses and encouraging the purchase of bonds trading near or below their workout
Compared to commercial credit ratings, Maximum Loss
compares the loss potential of a security to its trading
value, resulting in limited exposure to
bonds trading expensively
compared to their potential losses and encouraging the purchase of bonds trading near or below their workout
compared to their potential losses and encouraging the purchase of
bonds trading near or below their workout
values.
It may be valuable to also consider the environment and
compare that drop in
value to other asset classes during that time period: the S&P 500 Index was down over 46 %, the S&P GSCI was down over 67 % and high yield corporate
bonds were down over 30 %.
Foreign
bonds issued in foreign currencies face those risks, plus a third: swings in the
value of the dollar
compared with other currencies.
One way to analyze the relative
value of inflation - linked
bonds versus nominal
bonds is to
compare the implied break - evens priced between the two against near - term inflation expectations.
Insurance companies are
bond surrogates, in effect they are compounding book
value at a rate that you can
compare to a zero coupon
bond (assuming they don't pay a dividend).
Similarly,
bond values respond differently to changes in interest rates depending on their durationDuration Duration is a way to
compare bonds with different interest rates and terms.
I don't think
comparing relative
value between
bonds and stocks is a great way to determine whether stocks are attractive.
It is, perhaps, unsurprising to see that
bonds have held up their
value in the past quarter but it is surprising to see that US markets have held up relatively well
compared to Canadian and other foreign markets.
Duration enables investor to more easily
compare bonds with different maturities and coupon rates by creating a simple rule: with every percentage change in interest rates, the
bond's
value will decline by its modified duration, stated as a percentage.
The risk for
bond investors that the issuer will default on its obligation (default risk) or that the
bond value will decline and / or that the
bond price performance will
compare unfavorably to other
bonds against which the investment is
compared due either to perceived increase in the risk that an issuer will default (credit spread risk) or that a company's credit rating will be lowered (downgrade risk).
In effect, when
compared to the end of March 2009 figures above, there was roughly a 6 percentage point total
value shift in favor of stock funds and a 1 percentage point shift in favor of
bond funds — all away from money market funds.
He has called his approach «expected
value analysis»: it is based on calculating the percentage likelihood of various outcomes and multiplying them by the current
bond price, after which he
compares the expected
value with the current market price to determine whether he should buy or sell.
In terms of numbers, varying allocations according to P / E10 historically would have allowed us to increase the amount that we could withdraw safely from 4.0 % to 5.0 % + (of the portfolio's initial
value plus inflation), when
compared to a fixed allocation of stocks and
bonds.
Bond spreads are the common way that market participants compare the value of one bond to another, much like «price - earnings ratios» are used for equit
Bond spreads are the common way that market participants
compare the
value of one
bond to another, much like «price - earnings ratios» are used for equit
bond to another, much like «price - earnings ratios» are used for equities.
Bond - rating agencies are sounding the warning on conduit loans: in their view, the loans are getting too large
compared to the likely
value of the real estate they are securing.