The facts can not be easily tested, this is a very
complex chaotic system and the ratio noise / signal is high.
Markets are
complex chaotic systems, and entrepreneurs sometimes produce goods that no one wants.
Rather than attack Tom you should see him as an example of climate scientists of all persuasions who are trying to analyse the behaviour of
complex chaotic systems by the application of simplistic relationships studied in a laboratory.
Not exact matches
For example, the idea that the brain is a
complex non-linear dynamic
system is mentioned only fleetingly - leaving me with the feeling that we had missed an opportunity for a useful discussion (such as perhaps making a connection with the ideas advocated by Polkinghorne regarding the possibility of
chaotic systems «amplifying» quantum level uncertainties up to the macro-level).
The experiment shows the impressive ability of a simple
system to exhibit
complex behavior in the form of chaos and nearly
chaotic phenomena: Despite the gradual changes of air pressure the transitions between the different vibratory phenomena are abrupt.
Like many
complex systems, the open ocean can be represented as a
chaotic mix of constantly changing data points.
Human influences on the climate (largely the accumulation of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion) are a physically small (1 %) effect on a
complex,
chaotic, multicomponent and multiscale
system.
A quick visit to dictionary.com explains it as such: «a
chaotic effect caused by something seemingly insignificant, the phenomenon whereby a small change in a
complex system can have a large effect somewhere else».
Another model of the (price) technical behaviour is that the prices are a result of a very
complex «
chaotic» dynamical
system (the behaviour of all those that trade), where the «strange attractors» are not fixed, (i.e the phase space changes with expectations).
Additionally, the
complex network of lines in a Pollock or a de Kooning, however
chaotic they may seem at first glance, form a perfectly enclosed
system, one that is not inconsistent with the compositional history of classical European painting.
I won't say for certain, but I suspect that ecology (terrestrial and oceanic) are also
chaotic systems — or at least extraordinarily
complex and not necessarily well - modeled.
Also, because of the
complex, possibly
chaotic, nature of the climate
system, it may never be possible to accurately predict future climate or to estimate the impact of increased greenhouse gas concentrations.
The random time series, here represented as the bold curve on the top, may be physically meaningful, but the components made up of cosine and sine may not all have a physical interpretation (especially if the time series is from a
chaotic or
complex system).
I would further characterize the climate
system as a massively
complex,
chaotic, non-linear, open, coupled
system made up of 5 separate subsystems each with their own set of complexities, and all being affected by externalities like the sun, polarity, gravity, cosmic rays, and who knows how many unknown unknowns.
The interaction of
complex systems behaving in a
chaotic manner that are impossible to model is ignored Anything you don't understand you blame on CO2.
In so
complex a coupled, non-linear,
chaotic system as climate, not doing something at the margins is as unpredictable as doing something.
There is no way that in a
complex,
chaotic system only two variables explain so much of a key output.
The ocean - atmosphere climate
system is certainly a
complex system, and capable of some surprising behaviours, but there is no evidence that it is
chaotic in the formal sense.
These parameters are guesses, because there just isn't enough understanding of the
complex and
chaotic climate
system to parse out their different values, or to even be clear about cause and effect in certain processes (like cloud formation).
Each component is part of a
complex and nonlinear mechanism that in concert acts in ways consistent with the behaviour of a broad class of deterministically
chaotic systems.
«A
complex, non-linear
system may display what is technically called
chaotic behaviour.
It is as
chaotic as any
complex and dynamic
system if you understand what Poincaré was doing with his non-integrable Hamiltonian.
The human body is an excellent example of a hugely
complex and at the micro level
chaotic system with more feedbacks than there are stars in the Milky Way which nevertheless functions and malfunctions as a coherent whole.
One part of the difficulty is that the Earth is a highly multivariate and
chaotic driven / open
system with
complex nonlinear coupling between all of its many drivers, and with anything but a regular surface.
These and other variabilities are best seen as
chaotic shifts in a
complex and dynamic
system.
So it seems to me that the simple way of communicating a
complex problem has led to several fallacies becoming fixed in the discussions of the real problem; (1) the Earth is a black body, (2) with no materials either surrounding the
systems or in the
systems, (3) in radiative energy transport equilibrium, (4) response is
chaotic solely based on extremely rough appeal to temporal - based
chaotic response, (5) but at the same time exhibits trends, (6) but at the same time averages of
chaotic response are not
chaotic, (7) the mathematical model is a boundary value problem yet it is solved in the time domain, (8) absolutely all that matters is the incoming radiative energy at the TOA and the outgoing radiative energy at the Earth's surface, (9) all the physical phenomena and processes that are occurring between the TOA and the surface along with all the materials within the subsystems can be ignored, (10) including all other activities of human kind save for our contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, (11) neglecting to mention that if these were true there would be no problem yet we continue to expend time and money working on the problem.
Because it isn't given and anyone with even a passing understanding of
chaotic systems knows that such a valiant claim is completely baseless unless backed up by thorough treatment of the
system as
complex as it is.
If «[t] he inconvenient truth remains,» according to Philip Stott, that «climate is the most
complex, coupled, nonlinear,
chaotic system known,» then like flipping a coin, It will not matter if we devise a mathematical model to combine the data of the last 100 flips with a dataset reflecting the 100 flips before that — even if you consider want to consider how many tails you got on the previous 1,000 flips — the odds for the next flip still will be 50 - 50.
However, when you simulate a
chaotic system, the more
complex the model grows, the more «brittle» it becomes.
In
chaotic or stochastic
systems, there are singularities in the
complex plane but on the imaginary axis.
In our
chaotic weather
system, the
complex dynamics of the atmosphere mean the size and path of a storm or heavy rainfall event has a large element of chance, the authors say.
In a
system as
complex and
chaotic as climate, such an action may even trigger unexpected consequences.
Because the planet's atmosphere is a
chaotic system, which expresses a great deal of interannual variability due to the interplay of many
complex and interconnected variables.
The climate is too
complex to make calls about the future, and if you think that's just a denier talking then I'll refer you to the IPCC TAR WG1 14.2.2.2, which explains that the future state of a coupled non-linear
chaotic system (the climate) can not be predicted.
The deception by the IPCC is based on their knowledge that the climate is a «
complex non linear
chaotic system» yet the IPCC persists in leading the general public into thinking they can actually predict (not project) the future climate and on the basis of their «predictions», we need to radically alter our lives and beggar ourselves.
Nor I am claiming that this 60 year cycle is «perfectly» sinusoidal: I am talking about physics of
complex non-linear
chaotic systems, not trigonometry.)
... Models of our
complex and
chaotic climate
system simply don't make useful predictions after a few days» time.
But not the only driver, as Tisdale points out; this is a
complex,
chaotic system....
Even our best climate scientists still have only a limited grasp of Earth's highly
complex and
chaotic climate
systems, and the many interrelated solar, cosmic, oceanic, atmospheric, terrestrial and other forces that control climate and weather.
Thing is there
complex systems and
chaotic systems.
But there are also similarities in that both the climate and returns on financial assets are
complex,
chaotic systems about which making predictions about future events are fiendishly difficult.
ENSO is part of a
complex system — the entire Earth
system — that is
chaotic in the sense of complexity theory.
But the
system — the climate
system itself — is too
complex and mathematically
chaotic for the exact course of weather events to be reproduced.
He regards climate as the most
complex coupled non-linear, possibly
chaotic,
system known.
Earth's climate
system is an immensely
complex dynamic
chaotic system, with much turbulence and boundary effects involved in the physics, chemistry and biology which go into make the total
system.
The future evolution of some
chaotic systems seem to be uncomputable with anything less
complex than a model which is essentially a totally identical parallel universe.
Complex nonlinear
systems then tend to enter a
chaotic transition to a new state.
The essential concept — difficult as it is — is that the «shifts» are
chaotic bifurcation in a
complex and dynamic Earth
system.
A tipping point as Sornette used it refers to a
chaotic bifurcation in
complex dynamical
systems.
The concept of a black swan may be a very useful metaphor to help discuss the issues involved in understanding the limits of human knowledge, particularly when dealing with
complex,
chaotic systems like the climate.