The latest round of OECD
Composite Leading Indicators was just released, and given how useful these indicators can be in shedding light on the state of the economic cycle (and market cycle) it's worth taking a look at the trends within the data.
The graph below shows the year - over-year change in the OECD
composite leading indicator for Italy (lagged by six months) versus the year - over-year change in Italian GDP.
One watch point is the OECD
composite leading indicator numbers.
Not exact matches
The Index looks at the results of three
leading indicators to gauge confidence in the commercial construction industry — backlog levels, new business opportunities and revenue forecasts — generating a
composite index on a scale of 0 to 100 that serves as an
indicator of health for the contractor segment on a quarterly basis.
The above global
composite of OECD
leading indicators also does a surprisingly good job of providing a coincident signal of US recession.
Eurostat stated that eurozone unemployment was 10.9 % in July, the first time it fell below 11 % since February 2012, while a range of
leading indicators (such as the Markit
composite purchasing managers» index, the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Index and money supply data) suggest growth has continued apace in the third quarter.
The Conference Board's
Composite Index of
Leading Economic
Indicators rose 0.4 % during November following an unrevised 1.2 % jump during October.
The
Leading Economic Index is a monthly publication from the Conference Board that attempts to predict future movements in the economy based on a
composite of 10 economic
indicators whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy.
The CAB is a
composite index of chemical industry activity that produces a
leading indicator of broader economy - wide activity.
Overall, my impression is that the near - term dynamics of the market are likely to be dominated by this sort of speculative trend following activity - primarily because it will probably still take another 4 - 8 weeks until sensitive coincident economic measures (such as ISM figures and new claims for unemployment) begin to predictably reflect the deterioration we've seen in various
composites of
leading indicators.
There are three market breadth
indicators, two price - action
indicators, a
composite leading economic
indicator and a Seasonality
indicator.