When these past megadroughts are compared side - by - side with
computer model projections of the 21st century, both the moderate and business - as - usual emissions scenarios are drier, and the risk of droughts lasting 30 years or longer increases significantly.
The impacts I listed above are not based on
computer model projections of what things will look like in 100 years, they are things that the average person can see and witness right now.
Computer model projections of future conditions analyzed by the Scripps team indicate that regions such as the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia, and all Mediterranean climate regions around the world will likely see the greatest increase in the number of «dry days» per year, going without rain for as many as 30 days more every year.
As we learn further down this is based on a yet another study by parti - pris alarmists ramping up the climate change scare narrative using dodgy
computer modeled projections of what might happen if all their parameters are correct (which they aren't).
Image above:
A computer model projection of average daily maximum temperatures over the eastern United States for July 2085 (left) and July 1993 (right).
Not exact matches
The researchers may have slightly different numbers regarding the exact amount
of ice remaining, but both agree that nature is outpacing
projections from
computer models and that summer sea ice in the Arctic could vanish by 2030.
Computer programs created 3D
models of the glowing neurons and their
projections, called axons, which can be half a metre long and branch like a tree.
Computer model projections show the likelihood for particularly heavy rains in parts
of Oklahoma.
As the instructor / researcher, I
modeled all
of the technologies, including presentation, graphic organizer, desktop publishing and spreadsheet software, Web tools (webquests, webpages, weblogs), digital still and video cameras, and
computer / video
projection devices.
These included Araya Rasdjarmrearnsook's «Two Planets series,» in which members
of Thai villages discuss several well - known European paintings; Barry X Ball's seductive
computer - and hand -
modeled heads; and Eija - Liisa Ahtila's stunning three - screen video
projection, The Annunciation, which retells the biblical story using professional actors and amateurs from a center for social services.
Even if the study were right... (which it is not) mainstream scientists use * three * methods to predict a global warming trend... not just climate
computer models (which stand up extremely well for general
projections by the way) under world - wide scrutiny... and have for all intents and purposes already correctly predicted the future -(Hansen 1988 in front
of Congress and Pinatubo).
The theory
of anthropogenic global warming rests solely on
computer -
model projections into the future.
As a result,
computer models can not make «predictions» they only provide «
projections» which are based on the value
of the assumptions made in their preparation.
Even more significant is the ridiculous reliance placed on
modeling, where unproven input notions about the likely effects
of CO2 are circularly spat out by the
computer as multi-decade warming
projections.
Are all
of the alarmist warmistas in a world - at - risk tizzy over
projections of catastrophe by
computer models, or are they engaged in making predictions
of impending doom, based on
models and all manner
of other misinterpreted evidence and made up nonsense?
It won't be the side that bases its arguments on
computer modelled projections and a Malthusian sense
of impending doom.
The problem is in the argument, used quite extensively to give credential to
projection in front
of a public not used to numerical
modeling of Chaotic PDE, that GCM are
computer implementation
of first physical principles, which makes the
model inherently «solid».
Despite this, supporters
of the anthropogenic global warming cause regard climate
model computer projections as indisputable predictions, ignoring all else.
Comment (2 - 13): The Southeastern Legal Foundation provides the following reaction to the African rain - fed agriculture
projection, which appeared in the Sunday Times (Leake, 2010a) and comes from former IPCC chair Robert Watson: «Any such
projection [pertaining to African crop yields] should be based on peer - reviewed literature from
computer modeling of how agricultural yields would respond to climate change.
The study found that, based on recent ice loss rates and the movement
of the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, as well as
computer model projections, «early - stage collapse has begun.»
N (3) The
computer climate
models are not reliable or consistently accurate, and
projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.
Results from an irreducibly simple climate
model,» concluded that, once discrepancies in IPCC
computer models are taken into account, the impact
of CO2 - driven manmade global warming over the next century (and beyond) is likely to be «no more than one - third to one - half
of the IPCC's current
projections» — that is, just 1 - 2 degrees C (2 - 4 deg F) by 2100!
Moral: The reliability
of computer model projections are inversely proportional to a.) political pressure and b.) number
of adjustable variables.
The IPCC AR5 provides a spaghetti graph
of 95
computer model projections.
First, this claim is based on the usual IPCC mainstay
of generating
computer projections using woefully inadequate
modelling, starting with dubious initial conditions.
In that report by Christopher Booker, headlined «Top scientists start to examine fiddled global warming figures,» he points out that a new team
of five scientists has begun investigating the increasing evidence that the data being used for climate - change
projections by
computer models has been intentionally distorted by analysts wedded to the global warming hypothesis.
There are serious problems with
projections of likely future temperature, especially as they have been produced from
computer models.
Prashant Goswami, chief scientist at Bangalore's CSIR Centre for Mathematical
Modeling and
Computer Simulation and one
of the lead authors
of the IPCC report, admitted that these conclusions were based on climatic
projections that were not as firm as those made at a global level.
Computer model projections show the likelihood for particularly heavy rains in parts
of Oklahoma.
Such solecisms throughout the IPCC's assessment reports (including the insertion, after the scientists had completed their final draft,
of a table in which four decimal points had been right - shifted so as to multiply tenfold the observed contribution
of ice - sheets and glaciers to sea - level rise), combined with a heavy reliance upon
computer models unskilled even in short - term
projection, with initial values
of key variables unmeasurable and unknown, with advancement
of multiple, untestable, non-Popper-falsifiable theories, with a quantitative assignment
of unduly high statistical confidence levels to non-quantitative statements that are ineluctably subject to very large uncertainties, and, above all, with the now - prolonged failure
of TS to rise as predicted (Figures 1, 2), raise questions about the reliability and hence policy - relevance
of the IPCC's central
projections.
The scientific paper, entitled «Why
Models Run Hot,» concludes that the computer models overstated the impact of CO2 on the climate: «The impact of anthropogenic global warming over the next century... may be no more than one - third to one - half of IPCC's current projections.&
Models Run Hot,» concludes that the
computer models overstated the impact of CO2 on the climate: «The impact of anthropogenic global warming over the next century... may be no more than one - third to one - half of IPCC's current projections.&
models overstated the impact
of CO2 on the climate: «The impact
of anthropogenic global warming over the next century... may be no more than one - third to one - half
of IPCC's current
projections.»
The lack
of warming for more than a decade — indeed, the smaller - than - predicted warming over the 22 years since the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing
projections — suggests that
computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause.
It is partly for this reason that climate change
projections are made using climate
models (see Learn about...
computer models) that can account for many different types
of climate variations and their interactions.
Even if the fingerprint were present,
computer models are long proven to be inherently incapable
of providing
projections of the future state
of the climate that are sound enough for policymaking.
Asked by CNSNews about the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Easterbrook said they «ignored all the data I gave them... every time I say something about the
projection of climate into the future based on real data, they come out with some [
computer]
modeled data that says this is just a temporary pause... I am absolutely dumfounded by the totally absurd and stupid things said every day by people who are purportedly scientists that make no sense whatsoever....
Average
of the IPCC
computer model projections for the tropical mid-troposphere versus three standard sets
of observations: weather balloons, temperature sensed from satellites, and «reanalysis» data used to initialize the daily weather map.