Right out of the gate, Ford is showing
confidence in the model by simultaneously releasing the SHO, or super high output, version.
The results demonstrate the importance of improving cumulus parameterizations in regional mesoscale and global climate models and suggest that such improvements would lead to
greater confidence in model projections of climate change.
Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate,
raising confidence in models showing future greenhouse warming.
For the decade of 2007 - 2017 (left), the research team predicts that there may be some growth of winter sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, particularly on the Atlantic side, where scientists have the
most confidence in the model's ability.
Singapore Airlines, which first introduced the A380 to passengers in 2007, showcased an $ 850 million cabin re-design this month and
expressed confidence in the model's future.
Progress in the simulation of important modes of climate variability has increased the
overall confidence in the models» representation of important climate processes.
Confidence in model estimates of future climate evolution has been enhanced via a range of advances since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR).
So in a nutshell, Bad Andrew, if the global energy - entropy books are observed to balance, and the individual entries fluctuate in reasonable accord with climate models, then you may repose
reasonable confidence in those models!
You can't have
confidence in a model if you have no way of knowing how well it's performing, and you can't make many improvements to a model without an understanding of its shortcomings.
A communications group at Yale University has put out a video that seems to be a rebuttal to a Dilbert cartoon by Scott Adams poking fun at climate scientists and their
misplaced confidence in models.
There is now greater
confidence in the model assessment of the increase in tropospheric O3 since the pre-industrial period, which amounts to 30 % when globally averaged, as well as the response to future emissions.
«Its existence was predicted by the standard model of particle physics and the fact that there's — we got a glimpse of it, it looks like it may very well be there — is a real victory for that model of science where you test, you put forward conceptual models of the way the world or the universe works and test those models against the observations and see the extent to which they can predict new observations and when they do, it gives you
increased confidence in the models.
If the error margins are large, then we are going to have to wait 30 or more years to see if the model is really working, and to also have
high confidence in the model.
For the decade of 2013 - 2023 (right), the scientists expect to see some winter sea ice loss balanced with sea ice gain on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, where scientists have the
most confidence in the model's ability.
I would guess that we would have to be present and measuring over a couple of glacial and inter-glacial periods to have
great confidence in any models.
Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate,
raising confidence in models that incorporate aerosols and show future greenhouse warming.