In the chart below (Figure 1), I have plotted the entire 118 year record, including the overall average (solid red line) and the 95 %
confidence range about that mean (+ / - two times the detrended standard deviation; dotted red lines).
Not exact matches
The guide will also inform consumers and the public more generally
about the ACCC's approach to free
range egg claims, which may assist the public to have
confidence buying free
range.
Results: The mean score (
range 0 — 100 points) for knowledge
about infant crying was greater among mothers who received the PURPLE materials (63.8 points) than among mothers who received the control materials (58.4 points)(difference 5.4 points, 95 %
confidence interval [CI] 4.1 to 6.5 points).
Asked again what he had discussed with Conservative MPs
about the EAW, he said: «By definition, conversations that I've had with MPs are confidential, I've got to respect their
confidences so I can't really talk
about the
range of issues or the views they express... My job is to find out what people's views are and to make sure the prime minister and the cabinet are always aware of a
range of views on a
range of issues.»
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Along the way, the guides are careful to walk the reader through their explanations of Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs) and a teacher's Mean Growth Percentile (MGP), impressing the reader with discussions and charts of
confidence ranges and the need to be transparent
about the data.
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It says much
about Volkswagen's
confidence in its 11 - year old T5 commercial vehicle
range that the new T6 model
range remains underpinned by the same architecture.
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What I mean statistcally speaking and based upon what you personally know
about the data, what are the best indicators this
range can be believed with with such
confidence.
There's been a
range of interesting reactions to my piece on Pete Seeger's question
about whether
confidence in science as a source of human progress is underpinned by fact or faith.
We derive these values from the spread of IPCC model responses, realizing that these models do have systematic errors, but reproduce historic variations well enough to have
confidence about the approximate
range of warming in 2050.
This is why there is little faith placed in CAGW forecasts, any one who knows anything
about how the weather really works, understands the real drivers are not even understood enough to used in models yet, and with out considering the background patterns of the seasonal, annual, decadal trends that determine how the weather works, are even used in weather forecasting, in a viable active method, why should ANY
confidence be placed in CAGW long
range unverifiable modeled forecasts?
If we move the red curve up by
about 250 units, the lower edge of the
confidence range falls at the flat part that's not even monotonous.
The NWS produces a deterministic forecast with a certain
range e.g. 24 - 36» of snowfall but information
about confidence is not imparted.
(See discussion of these in my comments above with Vaughan Pratt) TCR is estimated (95 %
confidence) in the
range 1 to 3 degrees per CO2 doubling, or
about 0.3 to 0.8 degrees per W / m ^ 2.
The 95 percent
confidence range in this study was between
about 1 and 7 °C equilibrium sensitivity, so very low and very high climate sensitivities could not be ruled out, but are relatively unlikely, based on the historical record.
In rereading your post, you didn't specify
confidence intervals, but these are what are conventionally used, because estimating the probability that a value lies with a specified
range is far more problematic, and requires assumptions
about prior probabilities that are more fraught with uncertainty.
It is the evidence evaluated from the combined results that has led to the current estimate climate sensitivity
range of
about 2 - 4.5 C per CO2 doubling, typically with 90 percent
confidence limits.
Global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 °C and 0.59 °C (90 %
confidence range) above the long - term (1971 - 2000) average during the period 2013 - 2017, with values most likely to be
about 0.43 °C higher than average (see blue curves in the Figure 1 below).
Beerling & Royer [9] find a best - fit CO2 at 50 Myr BP of
about 1000 ppm — see their figure 1, which also indicates that CO2 at 50 Myr BP was almost certainly in the
range of 750 — 1500 ppm, even though it is impossible to provide a rigorous
confidence interval.
I would like to think that the time is coming when we can say with
confidence that the true disaster scenarios are off the table and it's now all
about finetuning our actions — choosing between a
range of low - target, strong - mitigation futures in which we never go anywhere near catastrophe.
As Curry observes, an infinite number of statements could have been made,
ranging from «it is extremely likely that the anthro pogenic increase in greenhouse gases has caused some warming» (not very informative, since an infinitesimally small warming is of no policy relevance) to «it is
about as likely as not that greenhouse - gas - induced warming exceeds the total observed warming» (which indicates the size of the greenhouse signal, but understates our
confidence in attribution).
Assuming the conventional 1.5 - 4.5 K IPCC uncertainty
range (and its translation by Wigley & Raper, 2001, into a lognormal pdf assuming the
range to be a 90 %
confidence interval), this risk of overshooting 2 °C is
about 75 % (13 %) in equilibrium for 550ppm (400ppm) CO2 equivalence stabilization.
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Again, it's all
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Cleveland and San Francisco
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Improve the comprehensiveness of the curriculum content and diversify the teaching methods used in the classroom to more accurately reflect the UNFPA definition of comprehensive sexuality education, and so place more emphasis on promoting practical skills,
confidence and agency among students; eliminate fear - based and moralistic messages; and increase the focus on gender, rights and strategies for preventing unintended pregnancies that teach
about a broad
range of contraceptives (including long - acting methods) and negotiating skills within relationships.
Improve the comprehensiveness of the curriculum content and diversify the teaching methods used in the classroom to more accurately follow UNFPA's definition of comprehensive sexuality education, and to place more emphasis on promoting practical skills,
confidence and agency among students; eliminate fear - based and moralistic messages; and increase the focus on strategies for preventing unintended pregnancies that teach
about a broad
range of contraceptives (including long - acting methods) and negotiating skills within relationships.
About Blog A flattering
range of breastfeeding clothes & nursing nightwear for breastfeeding with
confidence & ease.