The bottom
line for me is that, although the more efficient markets often misvalue assets, it's not easy for any one person — working with the same information as everyone else and subject to the same psychological influences — to consistently hold views that are different from the
consensus and
closer to being correct.
Failure curves for (a) NASA moon - landing hoax — results for both constant population and Gompertzian function are so
close as to be non-resolvable visually (b) Climate change hoax — The blue solid
line depicts failure probability with time if all scientific bodies endorsing the scientific
consensus are involved, the red - dotted
line presents the curve if solely active climate researchers were involved (c) Vaccination conspiracy — blue solid
line showing failure probability with time for a combination of public health bodies and major drug manufacturers and the red - dotted
line depicting case if only public health bodies were conspiring (d) Failure with time for a suppressed cancer cure conspiracy.
Perhaps now is the time for consumer and other lawyers to put the regulation of electoral advertising back on the political agenda: In the current political climate there may at least be some
consensus on the importance of
closing a regulatory vacuum which gives politicians advising the general public on the far reaching consequences of constitutional change more unfettered freedom than a toothpaste manufacturer promoting its latest product
line.