But the mixed economic picture was underlined by the same month's inflation report, showing annual price rises below
consensus forecasts at the headline level and a slight decline in core inflation.
Not exact matches
Although most analysts
at the time considered my
forecasts to be shockingly low and wholly implausible, and thought so even two to three years ago, I have always said that before the end of the decade it will have become the
consensus.
Indeed, in the euro area and Japan, our core inflation
forecasts are above
consensus for 2018, penciling in an increase to 1.6 % and 1.1 %
at year - end, respectively.
This Friday's preliminary look
at first - quarter GDP data is expected to show a deceleration in growth to 2.0 %, according to Econoday.com's
consensus forecast — the softest rise in a year.
Even without these factors, experience teaches that recessions are almost never
forecast or even rapidly recognised by the Fed or the professional
consensus forecast, but there is
at least a 20 per cent or so chance that if the economy is not in recession, it will be so within a year.
Adjusted net income came in
at $ 4.78 billion, up about 10 % from year - ago levels, and that worked out to adjusted earnings of $ 1.74 per share, topping the
consensus forecast for $ 1.72 per share among those following the stock.
The general
consensus and
forecast appears to be that home prices will continue rising in 2017, but
at a slower pace than what we've seen over the last year.
The
consensus forecast calls for EPS
at Urban Outfitters to be the same as in the year - ago period, while EPS
at Deere, Dick's Sporting Goods, Gap, Staples and Wal - Mart will be smaller than a year ago, if analysts» expectations are on target.
Provided that the estimates entered on the
forecast page are based on market
consensus projections, the market - implied GAP represents the
forecast horizon needed in a DCF model to arrive
at a value equal to the current market price.
The result is an increase in short - term interest rates beyond what is currently reflected in market expectations and the
consensus view, leaving our 2 - year
forecast a bit higher
at 1.75 %.
Even the most pessimistic analysts
forecast average revenue growth of
at least 20 % for the next two years, and
consensus pegs revenue growth
at 30 % for 2018 and 25 % for 2019.
Though the 156,000 jobs added in August's labor market report fell short of the figure predicted in
consensus forecasts, any disappointment was muted by the historical tendency of data in August to be adjusted
at a later date, with the initial level of hiring revised higher in five of the last six years.
The result is an increase in short - term interest rates beyond what is currently reflected in market expectations and the
consensus view, leaving our 2 - year
forecast a bit higher
at 1.75 %.
Looking
at market
consensus forecast figures helps to provide an indication of the expectations built into the valuation.
Interestingly enough, the headline reading came in
at 1.4 % year - on - year, which is a tick slower than the +1.5 %
consensus as well as the ECB's 2017
forecast, also of +1.5 %.
Earnings are
forecast to grow
at almost 200 % based on current
consensus forecasts.
A survey of gurus by Business Insider resulted in a
consensus forecast of 1,949 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2014: the index closed the year
at 2,060, higher than all but one expert's opinion.
The majority of the warming, the amount that converts the
forecast from nuisance to catastrophe, comes from feedback which is very poorly understood and not
at all subject to any sort of
consensus.
Finally, there's
consensus that we can not look
at climate
forecasts — in particular, probabilistic
forecasts — the same way we view weather predictions, and none of us would sell climate - model output, either
at face value or after statistical analysis, as a reliable representation of the complete range of possible futures.
Forecasts from Samsung and competitor Apple are looking
at $ 14.7 billion in profits, beating the street
consensus by $ 1.1 billion.
CoreLogic, a data provider for the real estate industry, averaged six
forecasts of mortgage rates, arriving
at a
consensus view that the 30 - year fixed will average 4.7 % in December 2018.