Sentences with phrase «constituency polling»

Some may be aware of constituency polls and forecasts, but local parties often muddy the waters.

However, I'm always slightly wary of constituency polls in Liberal Democrat held seats — the effect of incumbency and tactical voting is far higher for Lib Dem MPs, and when you ask a generic voting intention I think many people give their national preference, rather than how they would actually vote in their own constituency.

Recent constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft has further reinforced the message of the Scotland wide polls.

However we also have a new Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI, three new constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft and a new poll of Con - Lab marginals from ComRes.

Ashcroft has also updated his Scottish constituency polls from last week with two new polls in Scotland, both in Edinburgh.

Lord Ashcroft released another batch of constituency polls earlier today, this time revisiting some of the Lib Dem seats where he had previously found close battles.

Some voters who turned up at the Okaikwei North constituency polling station in the Greater Accra region to cast their ballot in the ongoing special voting exercise were turned away again on Sunday.

By contrast Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls prompt people to think about the candidates in their constituency without informing them of the likely order of finish.

The two constituencies polled today are seen as relatively suburban commuter towns on the outskirts of Manchester, both of which have traditionally elected Conservatives, before turning yellow in 1997, whereas Thurrock is a far more working class Labour - Tory marginal, yet all three constituencies voted overwhelmingly in favour of a European referendum.

This means that an ideal constituency poll question is not asked in a generic way (for example, «Who would you vote for in a general election tomorrow?»)

One can very easily make a case for one or the other method (Chris Hanretty has a good go here) but really that's only theorising, we can't know which way is better unless you test it against some actual elections, and at previous elections constituency polling has been a rare commodity.

The last constituency polls for Glasgow East actually put Labour a long way ahead, when in the event the SNP won.

Inverness, Nairn, Baednoch and Strathspey was singled out by Lord Ashcroft for a remarkable constituency poll earlier this year which put the SNP on 50 % - more than double the 21 % recorded by Alexander.

Lord Ashcroft published another set of his now famous constituency polls — in this case of eight seats in Scotland — on Friday evening.

Second, Lord Ashcroft released the results of two further constituency polls, this time in Edinburgh North & Leith and in Edinburgh South.

The Survation constituency polls by which he sets so much store were conducted by prompting for UKIP in the initial question, and included no political weighting.

We'll have a better idea of how the surge in SNP support is distributed across individual seats once Lord Ashcroft carries out his long awaited constituency polling in Scotland early next year.

A plot to oust Clegg, launched by a close ally of the business secretary Vince Cable, was foiled after he was revealed as being behind a series of private constituency polls leaked to the press.

Lord Ashcrofts poll are also, it's worth noting, of a substantially larger size — they are an aggregate of full size single constituency polls, rather than a poll of a group of marginals.

The Tema High Court will on Wednesday, March 14, 2018, hear an application from four New Patriotic Party (NPP)'s polling station executives calling for the nullification of Tema East Constituency polling station elections held recently.

As I've written before when writing about constituency polls of Lib Dem seats and marginal polls of Lib Dem battlegrounds, we don't really have the evidence from past elections to judge what the most accurate methods are.

«The combined message of these five professional and reputable ICM constituency polls, Nick Clegg's dire approval ratings year after year in all national polls, and Thursday's appalling council and European election results is crystal clear: we must change the leader to give Liberal Democrat MPs their best chance to win in 2015,» he added.

The following are cardinal among the litany of irregularities at the Tamale Central Constituency polls on the 7th December 2016.

Lord Ashcroft released another batch of his own constituency polling mid-week, this time returning to some Con - v - Lab marginal seats where he had previously found tight races.

We should have some more constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft first thing tomorrow morning, including a poll of Rochester and Strood.

Lord Ashcroft has released a good selection of new constituency polls, covering some interesting constituencies.

Constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest that prompting people to think about the candidates in their constituency when asking people whom they will vote for results in much more Liberal Democrat voting in Liberal Democrat seats.

Incidentally, information like this from individual constituency polls has the potential to drive localised tactical voting, as people can see who is in the best position to challenge the incumbent in seats that one party has dominated for decades.

Abstract: This post summarises the main points from the national and constituency polls in Scotland before discussing what might help Labour north of the border.

Lord Ashcroft has published a new batch of constituency polling.

Today's poll is the first of seven constituency polls to be released by the party, which they claim will show them emerging as serious challengers to Labour in the North of England.

In the key marginal of Thanet South in Kent, the Conservative party are set to lose the seat to Labour with Ukip coming a close second, according to the first of eight new constituency polls.

And if these constituency polls prove correct, his parliamentary career could soon be over, at least in the short term.

Unfortunately for the Tories my constituency polls have so far found Labour ahead in 39.

In a number of Labour targets, constituency polls and local election results suggest the party simply does not have enough of a lead (and sometimes none at all) over the Conservative incumbent.

By Dr Steve Fisher Abstract: This post summarises the main points from the national and constituency polls in Scotland before discussing what might help Labour north of the border.

But no such consistent pattern has emerged in my constituency polling.

Lord Oakeshott's plot backfired when it was revealed he had paid for the constituency polls designed to undermine Clegg.

There is some support for this conclusion in the constituency polling provided by Lord Ashcroft.

And most people seem to have their minds made up: among all constituencies polled, only one to three percent reported being undecided on the legislation.

The polls found just a two per cent overall swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives in the marginals, with some constituency polls even finding support switching back the other way.

The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling, focussing on Lib Dem must - win seats and released in the runup to the conference, showed just how important it is for the party.

Lord Ashcroft used the two stage voting intention question for the constituency poll, first asking people a generic voting intention question and then asking people to consider their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there in an attempt to squeeze out tactical or incumbency effects.

Constituency polls have been very rare in the past, so we don't have lots of constituency polls with and without candidate prompting from previous elections that we can compare to results to make a judgement.

There is simply no evidence that would allow us to judge whether candidate prompting in constituency polling is less or more accurate.

Lord Ashcroft released three new constituency polls.

Lord Ashcroft has polled Lib Dem held seats pretty comprehensively, so we actually have constituency polls in 12 of the 14 seats included in this sample, and they paint a very different picture.

Lord Ashcroft also released four new constituency polls, this time covering four UKIP target seats (or at least, four where he had previously found them doing well, I'm not sure whether Cannock Chase was ever a seat they were targetting — certainly Ashcroft's poll found respondents reporting a lower level of UKIP activity there).

Most notable of the constituencies polled by Ashcroft was Gordon Brown's Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath seat.