Sentences with phrase «constituency voting intention»

Constituency voting intention, with changes from last month, are CON 20 % (+1), LAB 40 % -LRB--2), LDEM 13 % (+1), Plaid 22 % (+2).

Following the TNS poll earlier this week that showed the SNP catching Labour in Holyrood voting intentions, there is a new YouGov poll for the Scotsman that shows them ahead in constituency voting intention.

In most seats this is only a marginal difference — in Lib Dem held seats it can be substantial, as repeatedly shown in polls of Lib Dem marginal seats using a two - stage national - then - constituency voting intention questions (see here by Lord Ashcroft, and here by YouGov).

Not exact matches

One of the major talking points has been Lord Ashcroft's recent polls of 16 Scottish constituencies, which attracted special attention because unlike the other polling companies it drilled down to constituencies rather than just voting intentions as a whole.

These polls typically do not show much sign of switching between general and constituency specific vote intention, except in Liberal Democrat seats where it is unclear whether the switching is tactical or due to the personal popularity of the sitting MP.

However, I'm always slightly wary of constituency polls in Liberal Democrat held seats — the effect of incumbency and tactical voting is far higher for Lib Dem MPs, and when you ask a generic voting intention I think many people give their national preference, rather than how they would actually vote in their own constituency.

In the constituencies surveyed, Labour lead the voting intention poll, at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories at 35 % with the Lib Dems in third at 21 %.

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.

Lord Ashcroft used the two stage voting intention question for the constituency poll, first asking people a generic voting intention question and then asking people to consider their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there in an attempt to squeeze out tactical or incumbency effects.

Assembly voting intentions are CON 23 %, LAB 39 %, LDEM 6 %, Plaid 18 %, UKIP 13 % for the constituencies, CON 24 %, LAB 34 %, LDEM 5 %, Plaid 18 %, UKIP 14 % for the regional vote.

This is not necessarily a bad thing — certainly I have grave doubts about polls done in Lib Dem constituencies that just ask a standard voting intention question.

Holyrood constituency figures are CON 16 %, LAB 33 %, LDEM 16 %, SNP 28 % — the article doesn't refer to any Holyrood regional voting intentions.

Interestingly comparing the standard voting intention question and the constituency question a quarter of Conservative voters say they will actually vote Lib Dem in Hallam, suggesting significant Tory tactical voting propping up Nick Clegg.

Both Ashcroft and ComRes asked a voting intention question that prompted people to think about their own constituency, candidates and MP to try and get at the personal and tactical voting that Lib Dem MPs are so reliant upon.

First it asked people their voting intention using the standard question, THEN it asked them their voting intention again saying «thinking about your own constituency and the parties and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?»

In a normal voting intention question in Con - v - LD seats the Lib Dems are in third place on 18 %, asked using the constituency specific wording they are on 31 %.

Voting intention figures put Labour at 40 per cent on the Holyrood constituency vote and 36 per cent on the regional list.

Oakeshott said a further poll on voting intentions in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, the Scottish constituency of Danny Alexander, the senior Lib Dem Treasury minister, would be on the ICM website later on Wednesday.

However a lot has been made of the fact that while both polls had an effort to take account of people's personal and tactical voting behaviour in their own constituency, they did so in different ways — Ashcroft asks a two stage question, asking people their national preference and then how they will vote thinking about the candidates and parties in their own constituency; ICM asked people the voting intention question including the names of the candidates standing in Sheffield Hallam.