It was also a nice week for
contrarian betting as teams receiving less than 50 % of spread bets went 9 - 5 ATS this week.
Not exact matches
In one of this weekend's most heavily
bet games, I love the value on the Fighting Illini
as a large
contrarian home «dog.
Based on this trend, Ole Miss (+11) is offering
contrarian value
as a home underdog in this heavily
bet game.
SportsInsights takes an academic and
contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, «A Contrarian's Guide to Footbal
contrarian view of the sports marketplace,
as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, «A
Contrarian's Guide to Footbal
Contrarian's Guide to Football
Betting.
Simply
betting on every visitor on Monday's would have produced a minimal profit, but
as you begin adding a
contrarian lens to the equation, the return on the investment (ROI) quickly ascends.
As a small
contrarian home favorite, UNC Wilmington may be a decent
bet to finally cover a game this season.
Perhaps even more interesting is that two weeks ago the team at Sports Insights sent out the Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5)
as a Best
Bet against the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers, largely because they fit into this historically profitable
contrarian play.
As you can see from the table below, the return on investment (ROI) of our contrarian betting strategy continues to improve as we look at increasingly lop - sided bet game
As you can see from the table below, the return on investment (ROI) of our
contrarian betting strategy continues to improve
as we look at increasingly lop - sided bet game
as we look at increasingly lop - sided
bet games.
Sports Insights is a leader in sports
betting information and has developed the Sports Investing Index
as a benchmark of
contrarian sports
betting approaches.
If you want to get steam moves,
as well
as reverse line moves, best
bet and
contrarian picks (up over 90 units combined this year), dollar percentages, a fully customizable live odds page, access to nightly
betting hangouts, and more, give our sportsbook insider pro membership a try.
As I have previously stated, the public loves
betting favorites and overs, which is why most of our
contrarian strategies will focus on underdogs and unders.
With these playoff games getting 3 - 4 times
as many
bets than a regular season game would, it's understandable that taking a
contrarian approach does even better than it does in the regular season.
Betting on that game remained heavy throughout the week, with
contrarian indicators pointing to South Carolina
as a value play.
In the past we have explained that there's value
betting on
contrarian favorites or,
as it's also known, fading the trendy underdog.
In this week's most heavily
bet game, I love the value on Auburn
as a
contrarian favorite.
As you can see, there's limited value on
contrarian favorites in heavily
bet games until we examine teams receiving less than 30 % of spread
bets.
As I've stated repeatedly, the public loves
betting favorites and overs, which is why most
contrarian strategies focus on underdogs and unders.
Contrarian Betting — Also known as betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting pe
Contrarian Betting — Also known as betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting perce
Betting — Also known
as betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting perce
betting against the public,
contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting pe
contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting perce
betting finds value by
betting on games with lopsided betting perce
betting on games with lopsided
betting perce
betting percentages.
One of the
bet signals available to Sportsbook Insider Pro customers are
Contrarian Plays (formerly known
as Square Plays).
Betting activity is much lower, as compared to the regular season, but the contrarian value that we have seen appear in baseball (value on home teams, plus contrarian value based on betting percentages)-- also appears during spring tr
Betting activity is much lower,
as compared to the regular season, but the
contrarian value that we have seen appear in baseball (value on home teams, plus
contrarian value based on
betting percentages)-- also appears during spring tr
betting percentages)-- also appears during spring training.
Contrarian bettors made up for a slightly subpar Week 2,
as teams getting less than 50 % of
bets went 11 - 5 ATS.
As I found while creating one of our more lucrative NFL
betting systems,
contrarian underdogs offer tremendous value in conference games.
As you can see, our most basic
contrarian filter (visitors receiving less than 49 % of spread
bets) has been highly lucrative this season, producing a 197 - 158 record with +30.34 units won and an 8.5 % ROI.
While
contrarian value isn't the only factor we consider
as part of our Best
Bets, it's definitely a large part.
This season our MLB
Contrarian Plays (formerly known
as Square Plays) have gone 82 - 92 for +17.4 units while our red - hot MLB Best
Bets have earned +125.69 units since the 2008 season.
The implementation of
contrarian investing — and theories such
as «
Betting against the Public» and «Smart Money» are developed.
We're currently extending our Pro trial to 6 DAYS which includes all of our College Football Best
Bets (61 - 45 ATS for +10.4 units won this season) and our
Contrarian plays (35 - 24 for +8.1 units)
as well
as Live Odds,
Betting Trends, Breaking News, Line Predictions, Alerts, and more.
The Broncos are getting 81 % of
bets following their impressive 42 - 17 Week 2 win over Dallas, creating some potential
contrarian value on Buffalo
as home dogs.
Also known
as «
contrarian»
betting, the logic behind fading the public...
Is it somewhat of an anomaly that the Best
Bet system hasn't done nearly
as well
as this
contrarian system in the NBA so far this season?
Also known
as «
contrarian»
betting, the logic behind fading the public is quite simple: It's human nature to root for winners and scoring, which is why we typically see the public pounding favorites and overs.
Additional
betting strategies that apply
contrarian methods by using specific events such
as:
You can get picks for all sports with our Pro trial which includes all of our College Football Best
Bets (63 - 48 ATS for +9.2 units won this season) and our
Contrarian plays (40 - 26 for +10.6 units)
as well
as Live Odds,
Betting Trends, Breaking News, Line Predictions, Alerts, and more.
In one of the most heavily
bet bowl games, I love the value on the Tigers
as contrarian home underdog.
In one of this weekend's most heavily
bet games, I love the value on LSU
as a small
contrarian favorite.
The column takes an academic and
contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, «A Contrarian's Guide to Footbal
contrarian view of the sports marketplace,
as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, «A
Contrarian's Guide to Footbal
Contrarian's Guide to Football
Betting.
This season, our marketwatch selections have gotten off to a slow start, but the
contrarian approach has been highly effective
as evidenced by our 37 - 25 combined record Against the Spread (ATS) with square plays and best
bets.
Unfortunately, there are significantly fewer
bets placed on the second half line
as opposed to the full game line, and that decreased volume adversely affects most of our
contrarian strategies.
At the time of publication, Kentucky is receiving 60 % of spread
bets as a 19 - point favorite for Thursday's game against Georgia, so be sure to keep an eye on the
betting trends and spread for this game for a possible
contrarian betting opportunity.
As you can see, underdogs receiving less than 30 % of moneyline
bets have gone 2,489 - 3,470 with +124.78 units won which makes it the most profitable range for
contrarian betting.
As a result, there is often «
contrarian value» on taking the other side of that
bet.
As March Madness gets under way, SportsInsights is the only source of these
contrarian indicators, along with
betting data on every tournament game.
If you're new to Sports Insights, we recommend starting with Pro
as it comes with our formulas and analysis in the form of smart money & steam moves,
contrarian betting plays and our Best
Bets.
The games with the larger Number of
Bets tend to have more
contrarian value
as we mentioned in this previous article.
As you can see
betting every under would be profitable, however, when we add our
contrarian philosophy that value is increased even further.
As you know, SportsInsights loves taking a
contrarian approach to sports
betting.
We constantly stress
betting against the public
as part of our
contrarian strategy, and there could be value on the Rockets (+5.5) in Game 3.
In one of this week's most heavily
bet games, I love the value on TCU
as a
contrarian favorite.
The first week of NFL action is in the books and,
as we explained in our most
contrarian betting article for ESPN, that has historically created value based on overreactions from the
betting public.
Although underdogs are typically undervalued in low - scoring games, we like Michigan
as a
contrarian favorite in this week's most heavily
bet game.