In this article, we show that a simple method of using Sports Insights» «Betting Percentages» and «Number of Bets» to help select underdogs can capture
contrarian betting value.
Earlier this week we contributed an article to ESPN Insider which detailed where
contrarian betting value lies during college football game season.
Not exact matches
In one of this weekend's most heavily
bet games, I love the
value on the Fighting Illini as a large
contrarian home «dog.
These games attract a lot of public
betting interest and hopefully some good
contrarian value.
It took five weeks longer than I originally expected, but Tebow - Mania is officially in effect and, whenever public money consistently
bets one way, we'll be looking to «sell their high» and find
contrarian value on the other side.
We still haven't seen sharp money take a side, but this free line
value is a hallmark of the
contrarian betting strategy.
Based on this trend, Ole Miss (+11) is offering
contrarian value as a home underdog in this heavily
bet game.
Since the public is more willing to
bet on underdogs during the playoffs, we believed there would be
value by taking a
contrarian approach and backing the favorite — especially when they were receiving limited public support.
Although we constantly preach the
value of
betting against the public,
contrarian bettors may want to think twice before going against the sharp action tonight.
ESPN's Chad Millman, one of SportsInsights» contacts, talked about
contrarian value and sports
betting.
SportsInsights.com is a leader in the sports information industry and has pioneered the usage of sports investing analytics and
contrarian value in developing winning sports
betting strategies and
betting trends.
The Los Angeles Kings (+120) are currently receiving just 29 % of moneyline
bets in tonight's against the Chicago Blackhawks and may be offering
contrarian value to NHL bettors.
Home runs have been steadily decreasing since Barry Bonds broke the single - season record in 2001 and with bettors prone to
bet the over on props like this, there could once again be
contrarian value on the under.
We've seen similar
betting trends in the Arsenal and Man City matches, so I think all three have nice
contrarian value.
We would like to stress that the only picks that we endorse are our Best
Bet picks, but between the
contrarian value and
betting system matches we would definitely lean towards the road underdog in this matchup.
Due to increased public attention, bowl games provide opportunities for
contrarian bettors to find extra
value when
betting against the public.
Keep your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for up - to - the - second
betting lines, odds, and information on the sports marketplace and «
contrarian value» in the sports investing world.
In order for
contrarian favorites to have
value, there needs to be a high volume of
bets and extremely one - sided public
betting.
Our research has shown that heavy
betting action — is related to
contrarian value.
Sharp money hasn't taken a side in this matchup, but one - sided public
betting appears to have created some
contrarian value on the Boilermakers.
They had high
contrarian value (71 % were on Notre Dame), it was a very heavily
bet game (35K) and they also had reverse line movement (+7 to +5.5).
In this week's podcast, David and Dan analyze MLB playoff
betting trends, highlight
value in NFL Week 9 games, handicap the MVP race, offer
contrarian college football picks and much more.
We'll take our weekly scan of the sports
betting boards and see what games our team of analysts will be eyeing for potential
contrarian values this weekend.
In particular, keep your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for up - to - the - second
betting lines, odds, and information on the sports marketplace and «
contrarian value» in the sports investing world.
Betting on that game remained heavy throughout the week, with
contrarian indicators pointing to South Carolina as a
value play.
In the past we have explained that there's
value betting on
contrarian favorites or, as it's also known, fading the trendy underdog.
For example, West Virginia -LRB--3) was only getting 41 % of
bets (great
contrarian value) vs Notre Dame, but they also had reverse line movement (despite majority of bettors taking the Irish, the Mountaineers moved from -2 to -3).
In this week's most heavily
bet game, I love the
value on Auburn as a
contrarian favorite.
As you can see, there's limited
value on
contrarian favorites in heavily
bet games until we examine teams receiving less than 30 % of spread
bets.
Contrarian Betting — Also known as betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting pe
Contrarian Betting — Also known as betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting perce
Betting — Also known as
betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting perce
betting against the public,
contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting pe
contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting perce
betting finds
value by
betting on games with lopsided betting perce
betting on games with lopsided
betting perce
betting percentages.
Betting activity is much lower, as compared to the regular season, but the contrarian value that we have seen appear in baseball (value on home teams, plus contrarian value based on betting percentages)-- also appears during spring tr
Betting activity is much lower, as compared to the regular season, but the
contrarian value that we have seen appear in baseball (
value on home teams, plus
contrarian value based on
betting percentages)-- also appears during spring tr
betting percentages)-- also appears during spring training.
While it does look like a nice
contrarian over to
bet, the
value is likely all but gone at this point.
As I found while creating one of our more lucrative NFL
betting systems,
contrarian underdogs offer tremendous
value in conference games.
While
contrarian value isn't the only factor we consider as part of our Best
Bets, it's definitely a large part.
Contrarian value based on
betting percentages and the level of
betting activity, Steam moves based on line movement, and Smart money indicators based also
betting percentages and line movement.
The Broncos are getting 81 % of
bets following their impressive 42 - 17 Week 2 win over Dallas, creating some potential
contrarian value on Buffalo as home dogs.
Along with our Best
Bets and
Contrarian Plays, Pro members have access to steam moves, reverse line movement alerts,
value meter, line watcher and line predictor along with many other tools needed to
bet like a sharp.
This indicator of public opinion, based on actual
bets, backs SportsInsights» concepts of
contrarian value and can not be found anywhere else.
Anyone seeking
contrarian value in the sports
betting marketplace should read this book.
By jumping on moneylines that have been artificially inflated based on public
betting,
contrarian bettors can consistently realize added
value.
The Sports Investing Index is based on our Square Play
Betting System, which focuses on maximizing contrarian value in the sports betting marketplace by highlighting the day's most lopsided games, in terms of the Public Betting Perce
Betting System, which focuses on maximizing
contrarian value in the sports
betting marketplace by highlighting the day's most lopsided games, in terms of the Public Betting Perce
betting marketplace by highlighting the day's most lopsided games, in terms of the Public
Betting Perce
Betting Percentages.
While the hype surrounding Jeremy Lin is providing added
value for
contrarian bettors, there are other historically profitable
betting trends that indicate there is
value on New Orleans.
By examining historical trends, public
betting trends and sharp money indicators (like steam and reverse line movement), I was able to pinpoint which team was offering
contrarian value to bettors.
-- There are three NHL playoff games tonight and according to our NHL
Betting Against the Public article, there may be
contrarian value on the Minnesota Wild (+120) tonight against the Colorado Avalanche.
We always advocate taking a
contrarian approach to sports
betting, and constantly going against the grain to find
value.
It will be interesting to see whether this higher volume impacts the
value of
betting against the public, but regardless there are several profitable strategies for
contrarian bettors to implement.
There may not be
value betting against the public, but there are many
contrarian strategies that are effective during the preseason.
In one of the most heavily
bet bowl games, I love the
value on the Tigers as
contrarian home underdog.
In one of this weekend's most heavily
bet games, I love the
value on LSU as a small
contrarian favorite.
Much like our
betting against the public philosophy, this often creates
contrarian value for opportunistic bettors.