In AR5 WG1 SPM there are interesting changes compared with AR4 WG1 SPM concerning the estimated
contributions to sea level rise from different sources (mm per year):
The warming, melting and potential
contributions to sea level rise from glaciers in Greenland and West Antarctica in the face of climate change has long since been a serious concern.
Church and White (2011) examined sea level data from both tide gauges (TGs), satellite altimeter data (Sat - Alt), and the estimated
contribution to the sea level rise from various sources (Figure 4).
Not exact matches
«Ice loss
from this part of West Antarctica is already making a significant
contribution to sea -
level rise — around 1 mm per decade, and is actually one of the largest uncertainties in global
sea -
level rise predictions.
From that number, they have calculated Greenland's
contribution to sea level rise over that time, which they estimate
to be about 10
to 17 percent of the total global
sea level rise of about 1 foot since 1900.
Marine Biologist Tom Iliffe, also
from Texas A&M University at Galveston, said: «Providing a model for the basic function of this globally - distributed ecosystem is an important
contribution to coastal groundwater ecology and establishes a baseline for evaluating how
sea level rise, seaside touristic development and other stressors will impact the viability of these lightless, food - poor systems.»
Berthier, E., Schiefer, E., Clarke, G.K.C., Menounos, B. & Remy, F.
Contribution of Alaskan glaciers
to sea -
level rise derived
from satellite imagery.
Questions about the eventual
contribution to rising sea levels from Greenland's eroding ice mass (and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet down south) remain hard
to answer.
The
contribution from glaciers and ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed
from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature
to mass loss (equivalent
to a rate of
sea level rise), based on observed data
from 1963
to 2003.
«Alaskan and immediately adjacent Canadian glaciers supply one of the largest measured glaciological
contributions to global
sea level rise (~ 0.14 mm yr - 1, equivalent
to new estimates
from Greenland).
Thus, whatever the
contribution of mass loss
from the Greenland ice sheet
to the huge (4 - 8 m)
rise in
sea level of the Eemian, it occurred under very strong temperature forcing.
If the melting rate continues
to stay within those two points, and given that the current
contribution to sea level from the Greenland Ice Sheet is only about 0.1 mm / year, we won't see a lot of
sea level rise until later this century.
As the rate of ice loss has accelerated, its
contribution to global
sea level rise has increased
from a little more than half of the total increase
from 1993 - 2008
to 75 - 80 percent of the total increase between 2003 - 2007.
And, although freshwater discharge
from deep aquifers may be locally insignificant relative
to river runoff, deep aquifer discharge when integrated across the globe could account for the missing
contribution to the
sea level rise budgets.
The IPCC projections of
sea level rise are based largely on the slow, steady and inexorable thermal expansion of the oceans (as water heats, its volume increases) with some additional
contributions from the melting of mountain glaciers (almost all of which are expected
to be gone by mid century).
Unfortunately quantifying the groundwater discharge
contribution to sea level rise is extremely difficult, suffering
from a low signal
to noise problem.
An international team of experts supported by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has combined data
from multiple satellites and aircraft
to produce the most comprehensive and accurate assessment
to date of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their
contributions to sea level rise.
The Greenland Ice Sheet during the last glacial cycle: Current ice loss and
contribution to sea -
level rise from a palaeoclimatic perspective.
«A semi-empirical approach
to projecting future
sea -
level rise» «Testing the robustness of semi-empirical
sea level projections» «Kinematic constraints on glacier
contributions to 21st - century
sea -
level rise» «
Contribution of Antarctica
to past and future
sea level rise» «Global
sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment» «Reconstructing
sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200
to 2100AD» «Global
sea level linked
to global temperature» «Upper limit for
sea level projections by 2100»
In fact, he said, ice flows
from that glacier alone account for a quarter
to a third of Antarctica's total
contribution to sea level rise.
C: increase in atmospheric CO2
from pre-industrial
to present is anthropogenic (D / A) S: best guess for likely climate sensitivity (NUM) s: 2 - sigma range of S (NUM) a: ocean acidification will be a problem (D / A) L: expected
sea level rise by 2100 in cm (all
contributions)(NUM) B: climate change will be beneficial (D / A) R: CO2 emissions need
to be reduced drastically by 2050 (D / A) T: technical advances will take care of any problems (D / A) r: the 20th century global temperature record is reliable (D / A) H: over the last 1000 years global temperature was hockey stick shaped (D / A) D: data has been intentionally distorted by scientist
to support the idea of anthropogenic climate change (D / A) g: the CRU - mails are important for the science (D / A) G: the CRU - mails are important otherwise (D / A)
The ice2
sea projections based on simulations of physical processes suggest lower overall
contributions from melting ice
to sea -
level rise than many studies published since AR4.
The authors find «a relatively low
contribution to Last Interglacial
sea level rise from Greenland melting... The resistance of Greenland
to thaw despite much higher temperatures [8 C] during the last interglacial led warmist blogger Andy Rivkin of the NY Times
to remark,»... Greenland doesn't need «saving»
Ancillary
to Bob Loblaw's fine comment at 232, previous research has shown that ice sheet mass
contributions from land - based ice sheets have exceeded thermal expansion as the biggest contributor
to global
sea level rise.
Interestingly, previous research has shown that ice sheet mass
contributions from land - based ice sheets have exceeded thermal expansion as the biggest contributor
to global
sea level rise.
«Combining the evidence
from ocean warming and mass loss of glaciers we conclude that it is very likely that there is a substantial
contribution from anthropogenic forcing
to the global mean
sea level rise since the 1970s.»
222 Kurt M. Cuffey and Shawn J. Marshall, «Substantial
contribution to sea -
level rise during the last interglacial
from the Greenland ice sheet,» Nature 404:591 - 594 (2000).
Present uncertainties of ice shelf mass loss are large, however, with estimates of their
contribution to sea level rise ranging
from a few centimeters
to over one meter.
Berthier, E., E. Schiefer, G. K. C. Clarke, B. Menounos, and F. Rémy, 2010:
Contribution of Alaskan glaciers
to sea -
level rise derived
from satellite imagery.
The melting contributes
to about 1 % of the global
sea level rise — a small
contribution and only 3 — 4 % of the total
contribution from global glaciers and ice caps.
The
sea level rise from this
contribution is subtracted
from the total
sea level rise to obtain another estimate of steric
sea level rise.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging
from centuries
to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1 - 4 °C (relative
to 1990 - 2000), causing a
contribution to sea -
level rise of 4 - 6 m or more.
The fallout
from nuclear waste is one; humans»
contribution to global warming through greenhouse - gas emissions
from burning fossil fuels, and its impact on
rising sea levels, is another.
An important
contribution to present day
sea level rise could result
from changes in the amount of water stored in the ground, on the surface in lakes and reservoirs, and by modifications
to surface characteristics affecting runoff or evapotranspiration rates.
Rapid
sea -
level rise from these processes is limited
to those regions where the bed of the ice sheet is well below
sea level and thus capable of feeding ice shelves or directly calving icebergs rapidly, but this still represents notable potential
contributions to sea -
level rise, including the deep fjords in Greenland (roughly 0.5 m; Bindschadler et al., 2013), parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet (perhaps as much as 20 m; Fretwell et al., 2013), and especially parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet (just over 3 m; Bamber et al., 2009).
Land ice loss — especially
from northern hemisphere glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet — now exceeds thermal expansion in its
contribution to rising sea level.
For example, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet broke previous records in 2002, 2005, and 2007, and seasonal melting
from 1996 to 2007 was above average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter) to global sea - level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996 contribution.4 From 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea - level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global sea level rise r
from 1996
to 2007 was above average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter)
to global
sea -
level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996
contribution.4
From 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea - level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global sea level rise r
From 1993
to 2003 the average rate of
sea -
level rise increased
to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global
sea level rise rate.
Hay et al. (2015) argue that rates of
sea level rise between 1.0 and 1.4 mm yr - 1 close the
sea -
level budget for 1901 — 1990 as estimated in AR5, without appealing
to an underestimation of individual
contributions from ocean thermal expansion, glacier melting, or ice sheet mass balance.
The scientists used satellite monitoring
to determine the
contribution of all land - based ice (except for Greenland and Antarctica's huge ice sheets)
to rising sea levels and found that the volume of ice melting into the
sea each year
from ice caps and glaciers was 100 cubic miles (or 417 cubic km).
Ice mass loss of the marine - terminating glaciers has rapidly accelerated
from close
to balance in the 2000s
to a sustained rate of — 56 ± 8 gigatons per year, constituting a major fraction of Antarctica's
contribution to rising sea level.
Although thermal expansion has been projected
to contribute the most
to sea level rise, the potential of large
contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet has added significant uncertainty
to predictions.
Consequently, ice sheet
contribution to sea level rise — even if it were the same amount — would have different impacts, depending on whether the
contribution came
from Greenland or Antarctica (Bamber and Riva 2010).
If this rate were maintained, the ice sheets would make a measurable but minor
contribution to the global
sea level rise from other sources, which has been 1 - 2 mm / yr averaged over the past century and 3mm / yr for 1993 - 2003, and is projected
to average 1 - 9 mm / yr for the coming century (see IPCC Third Assessment Report).
When we went down the first time, we had some funding
from Starbucks for working on climate change, and I said
to them, «Look, given the element of both
sea level rise and
contribution to the hurricane, we're going
to use some of these funds
to travel there with confidence.»