But the simulations also reveal that the technique, which mimics the short - term
cooling effects of volcanic eruptions, could chill the planet if overdone.
New UBC research shows that climate change may impede
the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions.
Not exact matches
Besides SSCE, scientists have also been investigating stratospheric sulfur injections — firing sun - reflecting aerosols into the air, similar to the
cooling effect after a
volcanic eruption — and cirrus cloud thinning, where you thin the top level
of clouds, which have a warming
effect on the planet.
In this case, researchers are attempting to re-create the
effects of volcanic eruptions to artificially
cool Earth.
Interestingly, some scientists argue that without the
cooling effect of major
volcanic eruptions such as El Chichn and Mount Pinatubo, global warming
effects caused by human activities would have been far more substantial.
Researchers know that large amounts
of aerosols can significantly
cool the planet; the
effect has been observed after large
volcanic eruptions.
Scientists have long known
of the
cooling effect of major
volcanic eruptions, which spew large amounts
of light - scattering aerosols into the stratosphere.
A few years ago, he was trying to get people to take to his idea
of how to mitigate global warming by pumping sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, mirroring the
cooling effect caused by large
volcanic eruptions.
It's also now well understood that large
volcanic eruptions have a short - term
cooling effect, see GW FAQ:
effect of volcanic activity (short - term being the key phrase, after Church et al Nature 2005, and also http://www.llnl.gov/str/JulAug02/Santer.html)
It is also well known that
volcanic activity has a
cooling influence, and as is well documented by the
effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo
volcanic eruption.
The
effects of aerosol injections are at least somewhat known, since
volcanic eruptions produce aerosols naturally and have produced
cooling in the past.
In other words, if we are after a cause (or causes) for the temperature increase during the period in question, the presence or absence
of aerosols from
volcanic eruptions is beside the point, because they can not explain any increase in temperatures that occurred prior to any
cooling effect they might have had.
One
of the things I'm having trouble with is the uncertainties
of aerosals and their
effects on
cooling, or the possibility
of volcanic eruptions producing particles that result in
cooling.
Volcanic eruptions represent one kind
of natural event whose lofting
of sulfur dioxide high into the stratosphere can create tiny particles that can have a temporary
cooling effect.
Volcanic activity was high during this period
of history, and we know from modern studies
of volcanism that
eruptions can have strong
cooling effects on the climate for several years after an
eruption.
In fact, the major
effect of significant
volcanic eruptions is
cooling due to the sulfate aerosols that they release (although in order to have a significant
cooling effect, the
eruption has to be large enough that it injects the aerosols into the stratosphere where they can stay around longer... and it apparently helps if the
eruption is reasonably near to the equator).
It takes a couple
of years for most
of the aerosols from a large
volcanic eruption to settle out
of the air, so their
cooling effect likewise lasts a couple
of years.
It could be a relatively cheap, effective and quick way to
cool the planet by mimicking the natural
effects on climate
of large
volcanic eruptions, but scientists concede there could be dramatic and dangerous side
effects that they don't know about.
In fact, the rate
of change
of CO2 levels actually drops slightly after a
volcanic eruption, possibly due to the
cooling effect of aerosols.
For example, the accumulated
effect of volcanic eruptions during the past decade, including the Icelandic volcano with the impossible name, Eyjafjallajökull, may have had a greater
cooling effect on the earth's surface than has been accounted for in most climate model simulations.
Aerosols from
volcanic eruptions do have a
cooling effect once they reach the stratosphere but the
effect of high wind speed in the upper atmosphere would rapidly disperse these, and any local
effects would be very slight.
If you take into account the two major
volcanic eruptions in the beginning
of the observed period which had an approximately five year
cooling effect each you will find that there has actually been almost no warming since 1980.
This would replicate the
cooling effect of large
volcanic eruptions, which occasionally belch sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere.
But not only did Michaels make no mention
of Scenarios B & C, he also never mentioned that Hansen's paper included the
cooling effect of a major
volcanic eruption (in Scenarios B & C) nor did he make any mention that one in fact occurred — Mt. Pinatubo (and neither does O» Donnell, at least the part you quoted).
Backing that up, NASA says that 1) sea surface temperature fluctuations (El Niño - La Niña) can cause global temperature deviation
of about 0.2 °C; 2) solar maximums and minimums produce variations
of only 0.1 °C, warmer or
cooler; 3) aerosols from natural sources such as
volcanic eruptions (Mount Pinatubo for example) have caused average
cooling of 0.3 °C, but recent
eruptions have had not had significant
effect.
Nature has already done the proof -
of - concept work:
volcanic eruptions spew such particles into the air, and the
cooling effect is well documented.»
The principle behind the idea is that high - altitude aerosols would
cool the planet's surface by reflecting solar energy back into space, mimicking the
effect of huge
volcanic eruptions.
Climate engineering: To counter the
effects of heat - trapping greenhouse gases, some experts have proposed artificially
cooling the planet by injecting sulfates into the stratosphere, which would mimic the
effects of a major
volcanic eruption.
Proposals for addressing global warming now include geo - engineering whereby tiny particles are injected into the stratosphere to emulate the
cooling effects of stratospheric aerosol
of a
volcanic eruption (Levitt and Dubner 2009).