Not exact matches
Science questions the answers, e.g. hurricanes are caused by warm moist
ocean air being drawn up into the
cooler atmosphere and creating a wind pattern though we are still open to consider other factors that may have influence on this
cycle.
The
cycle of Pacific
Ocean surface water warming and
cooling has become more variable in recent decades, suggesting El Niño may strengthen under climate change
In April 2008, scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-- a larger - scale, slower -
cycling ocean pattern — had shifted to its
cool phase.
The National Weather Service outlooks, and most climate models, focus primarily on the connection between El Nino / La Nina (
cycles of warmer and
cooler water temperatures in the tropical Pacific
Ocean) and weather in the continental U.S..
Naturally occurring interannual and multidecadal shifts in regional
ocean regimes such as the Pacific El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, for example, are bimodal oscillations that
cycle between phases of warmer and
cooler sea surface temperatures.
While not nearly as dramatic, the influence of solar,
ocean, and wind patterns is much more immediate, but these effects generally alternate between warming and
cooling over the course of months to decades in relation to their respective
cycles.
Cooling sea - surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific
Ocean — part of a natural warm and cold
cycle — may explain why global average temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short - term
cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long graph of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific
Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO,
cycle.
What happens to global temperature trends when you factor in the potentially confounding influence of
ocean warming and
cooling cycles?
I'm not just talking about 2008 being a La Nina year, I'm talking about the last 5 years that the
oceans in particular have been
cooling, long before the end of the last solar
cycle or the recent La Nina.
Dr. Easterbrook spoke of his studies of solar activity and
ocean cycles and his prediction that a decades - long global
cooling spell was coming, deeper than the one in the middle of the 20th century.
Some say thermometers are flawed and the world isn't warming much, others that warming and
cool spells are the result of solar vagaries,
ocean cycles or simple random variability in a sloshy system (basically anything but greenhouse gases, their critics note).
This may lead to long term heating and warming
cycles in the
oceans that are the result of upwheling of
cool water from deep within the
oceans.
The real problem here is that this AMO explanation was picked up and broadcast by the press in a very uncritical manner, usually in these terms: «Surface waters of the Atlantic
ocean warm up then
cool down in long, subtle
cycles.
Here we show the existence of a distinctive seasonal
cycle of subsurface
cooling via mixing in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue, using multi-year measurements of turbulence in the
ocean.
It's important to note that a substantial short - term influence on the globe's average temperature, the
cycle of El Niño warmth and La Niña
cooling in the tropical Pacific
Ocean, was in the warm phase until May but a La Niña
cooling is forecast later this year, according to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But as cogently interpreted by the physicist and climate expert Dr. Joseph Romm of the liberal Center for American Progress, «Latif has NOT predicted a
cooling trend — or a «decades - long deep freeze» — but rather a short - time span where human - caused warming might be partly offset by
ocean cycles, staying at current record levels, but then followed by «accelerated» warming where you catch up to the long - term human - caused trend.
Most scientists attribute this «pause» in warming to natural climate
cycles that have a
cooling effect on the planet, especially
ocean oscillation
cycles.
The
cooling from 1950 to 1970 is due to the
cooling phase of the
ocean cycle as shown in the following paper (Figure 4): http://bit.ly/nfQr92
If sensitivity to doubling CO2 is 1.6 C / doubling, that's too strong for the Sun or
ocean cycles or whatever skeptics think is going to cause
cooling to be able to compete.
The
oceans will inevitably
cool a little as we pass a solar
cycle peak and move into a
cycle trough over the next couple of years.
There are two main explanations for the 1940s to 1970s global temperature stagnation (or slight
cooling): aerosol forcing and the negative phase of an
ocean cycle known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), with the former contributing more than the latter.
Many people have postulated that there are cyclical changes in heat transfer from the
oceans to the atmosphere which causes rhythmic
cycles of warming /
cooling.
The aim of the C - SIDE working group is to reconstruct changes in sea - ice extent in the Southern
Ocean for the past 130,000 years, reconstruct how sea - ice cover responded to global cooling as the Earth entered a glacial cycle, and to better understand how sea - ice cover may have influenced nutrient cycling, ocean productivity, air - sea gas exchange, and circulation dyna
Ocean for the past 130,000 years, reconstruct how sea - ice cover responded to global
cooling as the Earth entered a glacial
cycle, and to better understand how sea - ice cover may have influenced nutrient
cycling,
ocean productivity, air - sea gas exchange, and circulation dyna
ocean productivity, air - sea gas exchange, and circulation dynamics.
Scientists studying
oceans demonstrate that the recent warming, to the end of the last century, is part of the natural
cycle of oceanic oscillations and predict a thirty year
cooling phase.
But as a
cooling world is now much more likely than a warming one for the next half century in the light of the current sunspot
cycles and the
ocean oscillations it would seem absolutely negligent to ignore the possibility, however politically incorrect it might be to entertain the thought.
Now stories will read for the new report, «IPCC blames warming hiatus on
cooling from
ocean cycles, but says
ocean cycles have nothing to do with earlier warming».
The basic
ocean cycle goes like this; in the summer brine is concentrated by evaporation and in the winter the dense brine
cools and becomes still denser and sinks.
IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We are about to enter «one or even 2 decades during which temps
cool» — Admits «Jury is still out» on
ocean cycle's temp impact!)
This robust
cycle does not care if we cause any warming, the polar
oceans thaw and increase the
cooling snowfall at the same thermostat set point.
IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We are about to enter «one or even 2 decades during which temps
cool» — Admits «Jury is still out» on
ocean cycle's temp impact!
It is possible, they say, that because of
ocean and solar
cycles a period of global
cooling is more likely.
The paper by Dr. Petr Chylek et al., you linked to suggests that 2x [CO2] is approximate 1.7 degrees, which is pretty much the same as that calculated by anyone who uses
ocean warming /
cooling cycles in their deconvolution.
Since Solar
Cycle began we have seen a
cooling and contracting of the upper atmosphere,
cooling oceans and
cooling climate.
None of the Annan / Hargreaves priors go below zero, and while this may be physically realistic it does not allow for the fact that the observational data generate negative sensitivities, mostly because of
ocean cycle warming and
cooling effects that the radiative forcing estimates do not take into account.
It was mostly if not entirely a result of a change from a warm to a cold PDO
cycle in 1939 (with a later assist from the AMO), and I get my negative sensitivities because the forcing estimates don't allow for the heating and
cooling impacts of
ocean cycles.
And the current scientific consensus that the upper 300 meters of the
oceans have been
cooling since 2003 bodes well for natural
cycles prediction.13
Dessler finds that the short - term changes in surface temperature are related to exchanges of heat to and from the
ocean - which tallies well with what we know about El Niño and La Niña, and their atmospheric warming /
cooling cycles.
The paper being discussed here makes the claim that the current hiatus in warming is due to the heat going into the Atlantic
ocean as the Atlantic
ocean is currently in the 30 year
cooling phase of it's ~ 60 year warming /
cooling cycle.
Kevin C's excellent trend tool shows us what the new data mean for the surface temperature trend since 1970: it's about +0.17 C per decade, but there's a range in that because short term wiggles are caused by things like the El Nino - La Nina
cycle in the Pacific which warm or
cool the atmosphere by storing or releasing heat from the
oceans.
This «hiatus» is probably due to the
cooling influences from natural radiative forcings (more volcanic eruptions and reducing output from the sun as part of the natural 11 - year solar
cycle) and internal variability (fluctuations within the
oceans unrelated to forcings).
The heat hiding in
ocean will soon be passé, old news, a defunct hypothesis, as the planet has started to
cool due the solar magnetic
cycle change.
Inspection suggests that the
ocean oscillations appear to follow a 60 - year
cycle, with approximately 30 years» warming followed by 30 years»
cooling.
except we've measured the deep
ocean temperatures and found that those waters are holding the increased warming during one of the natural warming /
cooling cycles.
the melting ice is due to the warmer gulfstream, which collected warmth from the warming period which ended at ca. 2000 Climate on Earth is ruled, among others, by the Gleissberg solar / weather
cycle http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/ Those still pointing to melting ice and glaciers, as «proof» that it is (still) warming, and not
cooling, should remember that there is a lag from energy - in and energy - out due to
oceans acting as energy reservoirs..
Equatorial
ocean temperatures fluctuate on a
cycle; when they are warmer it's called an El Niño, and when they're
cooler it's La Niña.
In the big picture Milankovitch
cycles are favorable on balance and the land /
ocean arrangements are very favorable for global
cooling.
Could an increase in greenhouse gases actually have a
cooling effect over water by speeding up the rate of evaporation from the
oceans thereby extracting energy faster from the
oceans, speeding up the hydrological
cycle and pushing energy faster to space?
This gas is then
cooled using water from deep beneath the
ocean to restart the
cycle.
I expect to see waves of heat crashing into the Western and Eastern seaboards, matching the Atlantic and Pacific
ocean warming /
cooling cycles.