The effect of the 2007
cooling on the average global temperature over time was to negate the hardly unusual increase of a little more than one degree centigrade since about the 1890's.
Not exact matches
So the report notes that the current «pause» in new
global average temperature records since 1998 — a year that saw the second strongest El Nino
on record and shattered warming records — does not reflect the long - term trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases as well as the
cooling contributions of volcanic eruptions.
For instance, the canvas buckets give a
temperature up to 1ºC
cooler in some circumstances (that depend
on season and location — the biggest differences come over warm water in winter,
global average is about 0.4 ºC
cooler) than the modern insulated buckets.
-- The combined
global land and ocean
average surface
temperature for the December — February period was 0.41 °C (0.74 °F) above the 20th century
average of 12.1 °C (53.8 °F), making it the 17th warmest such period
on record and the
coolest December — February since 2008.
My amateur spreadsheet tracking and projecting the monthly NASA GISS values suggests that while 2018 and 2019 are likely to be
cooler than 2017, they may also be the last years
on Earth with
global average land and ocean surface
temperature anomaly below 1C above pre-industrial
average (using 1850 - 1900 proxy).
spalding craft (2)-- Actually, there is an overwhelming abundance of evidence that the climate warmed to a maximum, so - called optimum,
temperature at different times in different regions, but about 8 — 6 thousand years ago; it had been
cooling,
on average since until humans started added considerable quantities of
global warming (so - called greenhouse) gases started in, say, 1850 CE.
They report in the journal Climatic Change that, if humans continue to burn fossil fuels at an accelerating rate, and as
average global temperatures creep up by the predicted 4 °C above historic levels, then
on the hottest days, between 10 % and 30 % of fully - loaded planes may have to remove fuel, cargo or passengers before they can take off: either that, or flights will have to be delayed to the
cooler hours.
He points out, for example, that there's been a period of
global cooling since the 18th - century onset of the Industrial Revolution — from the 1940s to the 1960s — and that
average temperatures rose in Europe between 1050 and 1300, even though there was no heavy industry going
on back then.
Christy is correct to note that the model
average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence
on global temperatures has acted in the
cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
NTZ's description of 1970s climate science focused heavily
on the mid-century
cooling trend in
global average temperatures, and
on studies which downplayed CO2's role in the greenhouse effect.
One study estimates that there are likely to be places
on Earth where unprotected humans without
cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, would die in less than six hours if
global average surface
temperature rises by about 12.6 ° F (7 ° C).16 With warming of 19.8 - 21.6 ° F (11 - 12 ° C), this same study projects that regions where approximately half of the world's people now live could become intolerable.7
These scenarios are arranged from the warmest
on the left (for the so - called A1FI scenario which is projected to increase the
average global temperature by 4.0 °C as indicated by the numbers below each stacked bar) to the
coolest on the right (for the B1 scenario; projected
temperature increase of 2.1 °C).
Globally, scientists believe that worldwide forest clearing since the 1700s has had a small net
cooling effect
on global average surface
temperature.
Based
on current knowledge, however, it appears that achieving a high probability of limiting
global average temperature rise to 2C will require that the increase in greenhouse - gas concentrations as well as all the other warming and
cooling influences
on global climate in the year 2100, as compared with 1750, should add up to a net warming no greater than what would be associated with a CO2 concentration of about 400 parts per million (ppm).
I would probably generally state it as «human CO2 activity has a measurable warming impact
on global average temperature that can be readily discerned from the background of natural climate change and other human effects that may cause
cooling, and this warming impact will be, in general, neutral in impact for humanity and the biosphere».
Anyway with El Niño fading away and possibly a new El Nina with other natural cooing factors coming in to play there is a good chance of another decade or more of «Pausing» or
cooling in
global temperatures which is itself a stupid concept as it
cools and heats in different places of the planet dependent
on the local climate conditions an
average is meaningless — you really need to dream up some more dire alarmist nonsense to keep your show
on the road.
This internal variability has had a
cooling effect
on recent surface
temperatures (though not of overall
global temperatures) which is not captured in the
average of the model simulations.
On Aug. 14, 2003, a news release summarizing July
temperature patterns began as a draft with this headline: «NOAA reports record and near - record July heat in the West,
cooler than
average in the East,
global temperature much warmer than
average.»
On the other hand, the 2017 global temperature remains stubbornly high, well above the trend line (Fig. 1), despite cooler than average temperature in the tropical Pacific Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 5), which usually provides an indication of the tropical Pacific effect on global temperatur
On the other hand, the 2017
global temperature remains stubbornly high, well above the trend line (Fig. 1), despite
cooler than
average temperature in the tropical Pacific Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 5), which usually provides an indication of the tropical Pacific effect
on global temperatur
on global temperature.
In fact, according to NOAA's data set, each month for more than 28 years has had a
global average temperature that was above the 20th century
average, meaning that anyone younger than 28 years old has never experienced a
cooler - than -
average month
on earth.