Atmospheric surface temps have been used and marketed since the end of the last global
cooling phase from 1945 - 1976 and explicitly through the 1990 ′ s as the definitive measure of «theorised» human - induced (anthropogenic) global warming.
Notice how the variability was generally lower during
the cooling phase from 1940 to 1980, and especially from 1950 to 1980.
Not exact matches
«I'm working on
phasing carbon out of my life,» he tells me as he plucks his infant son, Huxley,
from a plastic tub mounted to the front of a clunky - looking three - wheeled bicycle Griffith had brought back
from Denmark; he is, naturally, intending to build a better,
cooler version of it.
Instead you have to ad hoc add their generation
from hypothetical
phase transitions of quantum fields as the universe
cools.
But these severe winters may be a temporary
phase within longer term warming: By the end of the century, the researchers report, the Arctic Oscillation could overpower the
cooling effect
from WACE — and winter temperatures over Eurasia will gradually increase.
As the first matter began to emerge
from the Big Bang, it went through a number of
phases much as steam condenses to water and eventually freezes as it
cools — except rather than water, you get the first recognizable matter in the universe — a hot soup of quarks and gluons.
The broad area of
cooler - than - average water off the coast of North America
from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the
cool phase of the PDO.
The difference: in supercooled water the transition is
from one
phase of liquid to another, very similar,
phase of liquid water, upon
cooling.
So instead of going through a
phase change
from liquid to solid, glass formation occurs, which allows cells to be preserved in their existing state without going through the complete dehydration that you achieve in slow
cooling.
The key to air conditioning is evaporation: the
cooling occurs when a liquid absorbs energy
from its surroundings and changes
phase to evaporate as a gas.
What is evident
from the dust during the
cool phase and lack of dust during the warm
phase was that the water vapour content of the air suddenly changed.
But, according to a new analysis in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Ben Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne, the 1.5 °C target may be reached or exceeded as early as 2026 if the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shifts sea surface temperatures in the Pacific
from a
cool to a warm
phase.
Keeping the warm - up and
cool - down the same, simply increase the duration of the training
phase from three to four minutes.
Keeping the warm - up and
cool - down the same, simply increase the duration of the training
phase from four to five minutes or even more.
If GMC dealerships had made room for Hummer, it would have been easier to
phase out when its brand perception went
from war hero / tough guy «
cool» to gas - guzzler anachronism.
After the cold start the engine is temporarily fully uncoupled
from the
cooling circuit, considerably shortening the warm - up
phase with its high loss of friction.
«NEW YORK
COOL: PAINTING AND SCULPTURE
FROM THE N.Y.U. ART COLLECTION» This exhibition subjects the late»50s and early»60s — a period normally seen as a transitional
phase between Abstract Expressionism and Pop, Pollock and Warhol — to intense scrutiny.
Alexandra Lange, however, has recently included a description of the Artist Tenants Association (ATA) in her splendid summary of several different
phases of city activism among artists in postwar New York: «Romantic Icons and Urban Pioneers: Artists, Activism and Lower Manhattan in the 1960s,» in Pepe Kermel, ed., New York
Cool: Painting and Sculpture
from the NYU Art Collection (New York: Grey Art Gallery, 2008): 67 — 84.
Could GCM projections substantially overestimate temperature trends for the western US if PDO shifts
from its current warm
phase to a
cool phase?
They are notable for parroting claims that the oceans are
cooling and locked into a «negative
phase of the PDO» — but let's be honest, they picked that up
from NASA's JPL folks...
Karsten V. Johansen @ 207
from what I have read Svensmarks «research» says when the sun in a quiet
phase, it should cause more cosmic rays, so more clouds, so
cooling.
The average temperature above equilibrium during the 30 year warm
phase will be +2 / π x 0.155 °C which with ECS = 1.5 °C results in BNO (S) requiring 120ZJ
from storage to maintain the 1985 - 2014 warm
phase and the accumulating storage of an identical amount during the
cool phases 1925 - 84 and 2015 - 44.
If the water
cooled from +4 degrees to -4 degrees but changed
phase to solid, then the air would warm much more.
The models overestimated warming
from 1979 - 2011, but if you look at GISTEMP for example you can see that the East Pacific is
cooler in 2011 than it was in 1979 and the models did not capture that as they have no PDO in the correct
phase and are not expected to because PDOs are transient changes.
The
cooling from 1950 to 1970 is due to the
cooling phase of the ocean cycle as shown in the following paper (Figure 4): http://bit.ly/nfQr92
It was then called the Great Pacific Climate Shift but since that time it has been subsumed into the PDO
phase shift
from cool to warm
phase that supposedly has a thirty year period.
The PDO
cool phase occurred
from about 1900 to 1920, again
from 1946 to 1976, and we have currently been in the
cool phase since about 2003.
Since the PDO entered its 30 - yr
cool phase in 2008, it would tend to support future falling temps as indicated on the graph, especially in light of weakening solar cycles which also started
from 2008, leading to, in scientific parlance, a super-duper double whammy....
In 1975 Wallace Broeker (the guy who first used the phrase «global warming», predicted a rapid transition to warming in the 1980s, caused by a combination of rapidly rising CO2 emissions and a natural temperature cycle (derived
from work on Greenland ice cores at Camp Century) which showed a rapid warming
phase up to 1940, followed by the
cooling phase which was attenuated by CO2.
The liquid condensed at the bottom evaporates creating local
cooling and rises; the way ocean water and all water does
from the surface as an enormous pool of evaporative
phase change refrigerant for the surface (and the atmospheric bath of nitrogen / oxygen).
Practically everyone accepts that the 60 year PDO cycle recently changed
from warming to
cooling phase — hence Judith's 30 year
cooling.
The sun has recently gone into a less active
phase of fewer sun - spots, and the ocean decadal currents have changed
from a warming to a
cooling phase.
I understand that during that
phase the atmosphere
cools from the top down, leaving a small band of warm air only by the morning.
The current
cool phase of the PDO, if by that we mean the running average PDO index crossing
from positive into negative territory began right after the mega 1997 - 1998 El Nino.
Expect about 3 decades of contributed
cooling from the AMO before it reaches minimal heat transport and begins to speed up again assuming it won't get stuck in a negative
phase as at least one reconstruction shows it did during the LIA.
You write: «If internal variability (such a a
cool PDO
phase) reduces the rate of increase of surface temperature, while the e [x] ternal forcing still is increasing, this means the radiative imbalance is impeded
from being cancelled by surface warming.»
If internal variability (such a a
cool PDO
phase) reduces the rate of increase of surface temperature, while the eternal forcing still is increasing, this means the radiative imbalance is impeded
from being cancelled by surface warming.
The meridional
cool phase occurring
from the 1940s to 1970s and 1990s to present consists of equatorward winds over the continents and poleward winds over the subarctic and sub-antarctic oceans, resulting as Rossby wave formations.
Recent mild warming over the past 150 years merely represents a recovery
from the Little Ice Age which was the catastrophic
cooling phase that followed the MWP.
Also, the above chart of the 12 - month means clearly shows a climate that moves
from cooling to warming
phases, and then back - a natural oscillation that «catastrophic global warming» skeptics have long discussed, while being dismissed by the IPCC and its cohorts.
From here to item 20 is simply the reverse (
cooling)
phase of the same global climate cycle described in items 1 to 10.
It just doesn't seem very strong to me and I'm afraid that it won't be strong enough to counteract the
cooling from the oncoming Grand Solar Minimum, or even that of the concatenation of
cooling phases of the oceanic oscillations.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or
cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to
cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no
phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to
cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly
cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend
from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it
from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time
cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
In 1976/77 the surface temperature of a vast area of the Pacific Ocean abruptly warmed by several degrees as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shifted
from «
cool phase» to «warm
phase».
US researchers report in the journal Nature that they collected fossil pollens
from 642 ponds and lake beds across Europe and North America, to provide a record of local temperature shifts in the last 11,700 years, to conclude that — without global warming as a consequence of profligate human use of fossil fuels — the world ought to be in a
cool phase.
The «oscillation» happens between warm
phases (positive values) and
cool phases (negative values) that last anywhere
from 10 to 40 years.
«At the time of this writing (May 2010) the tropical Pacific Ocean has changed
from El Nino conditions to ENSO - neutral and is likely headed into the
cool La Nina
phase of the Southern Oscillation.
This is why gardeners will put water vapor in the air and water liquid on the ground around their garden on a clear cold night — it protects the local area
from cooling as fast because water vapor and liquid both 1)
cool much slower than dry air due to their massive heat capacity, and 2)
cool even slower because they release their massive latent heat, which means that heat energy is released
from them without requiring a drop in temperature — once they're in the latent heat release
phase, they just keep shedding energy without dropping in temperature any further.
The charts below illustrate that occasional weak
cool - season links may occur between the
phase strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO
phase strength) and EF1 to EF5 tornado reports for bi-monthly periods
from 1950 through 2010 (1951 to 2011 for the last pair, Dec - Jan period).
Water vapor condenses and disappears
from the gas
phase when moist air ascends and
cools.