As for the Milankovitch cycles, we should be in a gentle
cooling phase of the cycle, not a rapid warming phase.
Not exact matches
Naturally occurring interannual and multidecadal shifts in regional ocean regimes such as the Pacific El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, for example, are bimodal oscillations that
cycle between
phases of warmer and
cooler sea surface temperatures.
Speculative frenzy rarely
cools down without the bear
phase of the credit
cycle showing up.
4) The AMO might be heading for a
cool phase, and this combined with a continued
cool PDO, on top
of a weak Solar
Cycle 24 could prove interesting.
It's important to note that a substantial short - term influence on the globe's average temperature, the
cycle of El Niño warmth and La Niña
cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, was in the warm
phase until May but a La Niña
cooling is forecast later this year, according to the Climate Prediction Center
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
And Now we have the beginning
of a
cool phase starting sometime in 2007 as the PDO reversed and other
cycles seem about to follow suit.
The
cooling from 1950 to 1970 is due to the
cooling phase of the ocean
cycle as shown in the following paper (Figure 4): http://bit.ly/nfQr92
There's the gas
of the atmosphere additionally which the refrigerant,
cycling through it's
phases, also
cools.
Since the PDO entered its 30 - yr
cool phase in 2008, it would tend to support future falling temps as indicated on the graph, especially in light
of weakening solar
cycles which also started from 2008, leading to, in scientific parlance, a super-duper double whammy....
In 1975 Wallace Broeker (the guy who first used the phrase «global warming», predicted a rapid transition to warming in the 1980s, caused by a combination
of rapidly rising CO2 emissions and a natural temperature
cycle (derived from work on Greenland ice cores at Camp Century) which showed a rapid warming
phase up to 1940, followed by the
cooling phase which was attenuated by CO2.
The warming
cycle of the past three hundred years is likely over, or nearly over and we are entering the next several hundred year
cooling phase.
If the slower
cooling phase is still evident (as there is more CO2 in the atmosphere during the peak
of the warm
cycle which should keep temperatures warmer for longer) then this should constitute empirical evidence for CO2's effects on the climate.
There are two main explanations for the 1940s to 1970s global temperature stagnation (or slight
cooling): aerosol forcing and the negative
phase of an ocean
cycle known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), with the former contributing more than the latter.
«The global warming in 1970 - 1998 was merely a
phase in the 60 - year
cycles of natural warming and
cooling,» Dr. Bashkirtsev says.
Scientists studying oceans demonstrate that the recent warming, to the end
of the last century, is part
of the natural
cycle of oceanic oscillations and predict a thirty year
cooling phase.
The study Harris authored found that «the data... clearly shows the nominal 100KY
cycle for glaciation and the interglacial
phases and it shows that we have reached the end
of the typical interglacial
cycle and are due for a sudden
cooling climate change.
«The
cooling phase will last for about 45 - 65 years, for four to six 11 - year
cycles of the Sun, after which on the Earth, at the beginning
of the 22nd century, will begin the new, next quasi-bicentennial
cycle of warming.»
From here to item 20 is simply the reverse (
cooling)
phase of the same global climate
cycle described in items 1 to 10.
The paper being discussed here makes the claim that the current hiatus in warming is due to the heat going into the Atlantic ocean as the Atlantic ocean is currently in the 30 year
cooling phase of it's ~ 60 year warming /
cooling cycle.
If that is the
cooling phase of a natural
cycle, and that
cycle was in a warming
phase during the late 20th century, then about half the late 20th C warming was natural, and half due to AGW.
So in the past, as shown from the ice core records, when the interglacial
cycle reaches its
cooling phase and the atmosphere starts to
cool in spite
of increasing CO2 levels (proven that changes in CO2 lags temperature change by about 800 years) you are saying that didn't happen?
«Thirty - five vertical temperature profiles during the warming and
cooling phases of the diurnal
cycle (Fig. 6) were obtained by free - rising profiler at low wind speed.»
I did suggest some time ago to Dr Bob Tisdale across at WUWT that perhaps a difference in the rate
of energy loss during both the warming and
cooling phases of ENSO and PDO
cycles, because
of a change in the atmospheric albedo, could provide a physical explanation for the correlation they were describing, but the hypothesis was not favoured.
By analyzing a number
of time series
of phenomena influenced by climate, they found that the earth has global climate
cycles of 50 - 70 years with an average
of about 60 years and which have
cool and warm
phases of 30 years each.
They show that increasing world fuel consumption (i.e., increasing CO2 emission) does not correlate with
cool and warm
phases of the 60 year global climate
cycle.
With a new awareness that climate could change in serious ways, in the early 1970s some scientists predicted a continued gradual
cooling, perhaps a
phase of a long natural
cycle or perhaps caused by human pollution
of the atmosphere with smog and dust.