And because of this weakness, the Fed was forced to downgrade
its core inflation forecast for 2017 yet again, this time from +1.7 % to +1.5 %.
Indeed, in the euro area and Japan,
our core inflation forecasts are above consensus for 2018, penciling in an increase to 1.6 % and 1.1 % at year - end, respectively.
Not exact matches
In its latest
forecasts, the ECB estimated a GDP (gross domestic product) rate of 2.2 percent for this year and 1.8 percent for next year and
core inflation to reach 1.2 percent in 2017 and 1.3 percent in 2018.
Consequently, Zentner and her team recently lowered their
core personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
inflation forecast to 1.4 % for 2017 and 1.7 % for 2018.
The actual total (
core)
inflation rate for January is higher than (higher than)
forecasted.
As recently as June, its belief in Europe's economic revival led it to
forecast that
core inflation would move up to 1.5 % in 2016.
But the mixed economic picture was underlined by the same month's
inflation report, showing annual price rises below consensus
forecasts at the headline level and a slight decline in
core inflation.
For the Japanese Yen, Tokyo
core inflation slipped from 0.8 % to 0.6 % in April, with retail sales also seeing just a 1 % rise in March, year - on - year, following February's 2 % rise, while industrial production increased by 1.2 %, ahead of a
forecasted 0.5 % increase, following February's flat finalized number.
The latest set of
forecasts from the Fed stirred a little more comment among market participants, particularly the projections for
core inflation that were slightly above the central bank's 2 % target in 2019 and 2020, which hinted policymakers might be willing to tolerate such an overshoot if they believed longer - term inflationary pressures were limited.
This page provides - Canada
Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data,
forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore and Ministry of Trade & Industry said they are maintaining their
forecast for
core inflation to come in at 1 to 2 per cent this year, and for headline
inflation to be between 0.5 and 1.5 per cent.
US: The Fed has now started balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) and with
core inflation rising, we expect four more rate hikes in 2018, and two in 2019, ending the
forecast at 3 %.
The other preferred measure for
core inflation, HICP less energy and unprocessed food, came in 1.1 % year - on - year, which is also still in - line with the ECB's 2017
forecast of 1.1 %.
To be sure, with higher expected returns comes higher
forecast volatility of annual returns, from 1.5 % for T - bills to 3.8 % for
core bonds, 8.6 % for the traditional 60/40 portfolio, and 12.2 % for the
inflation - hedging portfolio.